Chile Cuts 2026 Copper Output Forecast to 5.27 Million Tonnes on Weak First Half

Chile · Mining

Cochilco projects a 2.6% decline in 2026 output before a rebound in 2027.

The Chuquicamata open-pit copper mine in Chile; Cochilco expects national output to dip to 5.27 million tonnes in 2026. (Photo: Alexander Gerst/Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 2.0)

Chile’s state copper commission cut its 2026 copper output forecast to 5.27 million tonnes, according to Cochilco. The new projection represents a 2.6% decline from 2025 output levels.

Cochilco Revises Output Forecast Lower

Cochilco, Chile’s state copper commission, revised its 2026 output forecast to 5.27 million tonnes. This marks a 2.6% fall from the previous year’s production, the commission said.

The commission cited a weak first half of 2026 as the primary reason for the revision. Lower output at state-owned Codelco and BHP’s Escondida and Spence mines contributed to the shortfall.

The revised figure represents a significant adjustment from earlier projections. Reflecting the operational realities observed during the first six months of the year.

Analysts tracking the Chilean copper sector had anticipated a possible downgrade. But the magnitude of the cut underscores the severity of the challenges faced by major producers.

Chile remains the world’s largest copper producer, accounting for roughly a quarter of global mine supply. As such.

Any fluctuation in its output has direct implications for international copper prices and the broader supply-demand balance in the global metals market. The commission’s report, released after market hours, was closely watched by traders and industry stakeholders.

The data provides a benchmark for evaluating the performance of the country’s mining sector. Which is a critical driver of Chile’s economy and government revenues.

2027 Rebound Projected for Chilean Copper

Cochilco projects a rebound in 2027, with output expected to reach 5.55 million tonnes. This forecast was reported by Reuters and Investing.

com. The projected recovery suggests a stabilization of operations after the anticipated 2026 decline.

The anticipated uptick in 2027 is based on expectations of improved operational performance at existing mines. As well as the gradual ramp-up of new projects.

Industry observers note that the recovery will depend on resolving persistent issues such as ore grade decline, water scarcity, and labor disruptions. Cochilco’s projections for 2027 also imply a return to growth that could help alleviate concerns about a prolonged copper supply deficit.

The market has been grappling with tight supply conditions. Driven by strong demand from the energy transition sector and constrained mine output globally.

The 5.55 million tonne forecast for 2027 would represent an increase of approximately 5.3% compared to the 2026 projection. This growth trajectory, if realized, would position Chile to contribute significantly to meeting the rising global demand for copper.

Particularly for use in electric vehicles, renewable energy systems, and grid infrastructure.

Cochilco Raises 2026 Copper Price Forecast

In its report, Cochilco also raised its 2026 average copper price forecast to US$5.95 per pound. The commission maintained its 2027 price forecast at US$5.10 per pound.

The revised price outlook reflects expectations of solid global demand, according to a summary from Biobío Chile. The upward revision in the price forecast for 2026 signals a bullish outlook for the metal in the near term.

Factors supporting higher prices include resilient demand from China, the world’s largest consumer of industrial metals. And supply constraints in other major producing regions such as Peru and the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Cochilco’s price projections are closely monitored by the industry as they inform investment decisions and government budget planning. The commission’s forecasts are derived from a comprehensive analysis of macroeconomic indicators, mining project pipelines, and global inventory levels.

The sustained higher price environment is likely to provide some financial relief to Chilean miners. Even as they contend with escalating operational costs.

However. The gap between the 2026 and 2027 forecasts suggests that the commission expects a correction in prices as supply conditions potentially ease.

June Production Data Shows Mixed Results

Cochilco’s June 2026 production data shows mixed results among major miners. Escondida, operated by BHP, produced 111,400 metric tons, up 45.8% year on year.

Collahuasi produced 34,900 metric tons in June, a 1.7% increase year on year. In contrast, Codelco’s output fell 4.8% to 114,400 metric tons during the same month.

Escondida, the world’s largest copper mine, demonstrated a robust recovery in June, driven by increased ore grades and improved processing plant performance. The significant year-on-year gain highlights the successful implementation of measures to boost operational stability in the face of environmental and social challenges.

Codelco, the state-owned mining giant, continues to face headwinds, including aging infrastructure and delays in key project execution. The company, which has seen its production decline over recent years.

Is in the midst of a strategic plan to modernize its operations and reverse the output slump. The mixed performance among the top producers underscores the divergent operational circumstances within the Chilean mining industry.

While some operations are benefiting from favorable geological conditions and management strategies, others are still grappling with structural inefficiencies and legacy issues.

How Officials Framed the Copper Output Forecast

Daniel Mas, Chile’s biministro de Economía y Minería, presented the projections, according to Biobío Chile. The figures came from Cochilco’s latest report.

Cochilco paired the lower volume outlook with a firmer price view. It raised its 2026 average copper price forecast to US$5.95 per pound, holding 2027 at US$5.10 per pound.

Copper remains Chile’s leading export and a major source of state revenue. A higher price can cushion the fiscal impact of softer output.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is Cochilco?

Cochilco is Chile’s state copper commission, known officially as the Comisión Chilena del Cobre. It provides official forecasts and operational data for the country’s copper mining industry.

Why did Cochilco cut the 2026 copper output forecast?

Cochilco cited a weak first half of 2026 for the forecast cut. Lower production at Codelco, Escondida, and Spence contributed to the decline.

What is the revised copper price forecast for 2026?

Cochilco raised its 2026 average copper price forecast to US$5.95 per pound. The forecast for 2027 remains at US$5.10 per pound.

How did Codelco perform in June 2026?

Codelco produced 114,400 metric tons in June 2026. This represents a 4.8% decrease compared to the same month in the previous year.

Sources: Reuters, Investing.com, Biobío Chile, Cochilco, Kitco