By South China Morning Post | Created at 2025-03-20 13:06:37 | Updated at 2025-03-21 02:03:29
13 hours ago
Researchers from the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) predict the country’s unparalleled dominance of the world’s supplies of rare earths – critical to hi-tech and green industries – could be coming to an end.
In a study published last week by the peer-reviewed journal Chinese Rare Earths, the scientists warned that the country’s estimated 62 per cent share of the raw materials may fall to just 28 per cent by 2035 as new sources emerge.
Modelling by the researchers predicted a further drop to 23 per cent in 2040, with China “entirely losing its former dominant position” as the opening up of mining frontiers in Africa, South America and Australia potentially reshapes the industry.
The results suggest “fundamental shifts” were under way, the paper said.
Even China’s heavy rare earths stronghold in southern China – concentrated in its ion-adsorption clays – could be threatened by Greenland’s Kvanefjeld and a number of South American projects, according to the paper.
The study was led by researchers at the CAS Ganjiang Innovation Academy in Ganzhou, Jiangxi province, eastern China – one of the world’s largest production centres of the critically important metals.
