Could the Republicans lose the House? Five US congressional races to watch

With only days to go before the general elections in the United States, it can seem like the tight presidential race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is sucking up all the attention.

But on the November 5 election day, crucial battles will also unfold for both chambers of Congress: the Senate and the House of Representatives.

However, unlike in the Senate, where only a third of the seats are up for grabs, all 435 seats in the House of Representatives will be on the ballot this election cycle.

The races will be scattered across every corner of the US. After all, the House assigns a certain number of seats to each state based on population size, and each seat has a specific district within the state to represent.

Every two years, the House faces the prospect of a shake-up, with re-elections for all its members.

And this year, the Republican Party is playing defence, hoping to protect its majority in the chamber.

Currently, Republicans control 220 seats, compared with 212 for the Democrats. At stake is the power to pass — or block — new legislation. But the House is also endowed with special abilities: Only the lower chamber of Congress can launch revenue bills and impeach federal officials.

Experts have identified 34 House seats as vulnerable to flipping parties this November. What are some of the narrowest races to watch? Explore five of the nail-biters below.

Representative Anthony D’Esposito is attempting to fend off a second attempt by Laura Gillen to unseat him [Brendan McDermid/Reuters]

New York’s 4th district 

The state of New York has long been a Democratic stronghold.

But zoom into the state, and the electoral map becomes a patchwork of red and blue districts. Nowhere is this more apparent than on Long Island, a political battleground jutting into the Atlantic Ocean.

Long Island is home to some of New York’s most competitive House races, including the battle for the 4th congressional district.

The district is minutes away from the urban bustle of Manhattan, but it has a suburban, laid-back vibe. It is also notable as one of the wealthiest enclaves in New York.

Both Democrats and Republicans have won the area in recent years. For instance, in the 2020 presidential race, Joe Biden won the 4th district by 15 percentage points, and his fellow Democrat, Kathleen Rice, handily defended her seat for a final term in the House.

But two years later, a new House election was held — and the seat fell to Republican hands.

Now, incumbent Republican Anthony D’Esposito is facing a rematch from his rival from that race, Democrat Laura Gillen.

D’Esposito is a former New York Police detective running on what he calls his record of common sense. He has hammered Gillen as lax on crime and immigration, but he has also faced criticism for allegedly giving a lover a part-time job on the government payroll.

Gillen, meanwhile, has said she would push for more law enforcement and border security. “I will work with anyone, from any party, to secure our southern border,” she says in a campaign advertisement.

The rivalry between Gillen and D’Esposito goes back years: During her time as supervisor for the town of Hempstead, Gillen clashed with the town board, of which D’Esposito was a member.

Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris greets incumbent Representative Don Davis in Greenville, North Carolina, on October 13 [Jonathan Drake/Reuters]

North Carolina’s 1st district: 

North Carolina is the newest swing state this election cycle, with Democrats and Republicans almost evenly matched in statewide polls. Experts speculate Harris could be the first Democratic presidential candidate to claim the state since 2008, if the vote goes in her favour.

But one prominent corner of North Carolina is also primed for a flip.

That would be the 1st congressional district, located in northeast North Carolina, on the border with Virginia.

There, incumbent Democrat Don Davis is facing a stiff challenge in a contest that raises questions about race and redistricting.

The 1st congressional district has long been considered part of the US South’s “Black Belt”, a series of districts where the number of Black residents either surpasses or equals the number of white ones. About 40 percent of the district’s residents are Black.

The last time the district elected a Republican was in 1883. Since the 1990s, its representatives have all been Black, too. But both of those streaks could end on November 5.

The district was one of four areas subject to a lawsuit in December 2023, when voting rights activists argued that district boundaries had been redrawn to lessen the power of Black voters.

The new borders of District 1 carved out some Black neighbourhoods and incorporated other, largely white areas.

Ultimately, the lawsuit was dismissed. But the map could still play a role in who wins. Currently, there are seven Democrats and seven Republicans from North Carolina in Congress.

Davis, an Air Force alum, is in a tight race against a fellow veteran, retired Army Colonel Laurie Buckhout, a political newcomer. Davis, however, is known for bucking his own party, voting with Republicans on several occasions.

Representative Mike Garcia serves a district that includes parts of northern Los Angeles [J Scott Applewhite/AP Photo]

California’s 27th district:

Earlier this month, Trump — the Republican presidential candidate — made a curious choice.

He travelled to California’s Coachella Valley in the crucial final weeks of the election to hold a rally. It seemed like a counterintuitive move: After all, isn’t California a deep blue state, long held by Democrats?

Despite its reputation as a liberal bastion, the state could hold the key to controlling the House of Representatives, and both parties are pumping millions of dollars into district-level campaigns there.

One of the hottest prizes is California’s 27th district, which sits on the northern border of Los Angeles.

During the 2020 presidential race, District 27 was one of only five areas in California that chose a Republican as a representative — but also backed Democrat Joe Biden as president.

That makes it vulnerable to switching parties in this year’s House race. Incumbent Republican Mike Garcia, a former fighter pilot who has held the seat since 2020, is preparing for a fight for his political life.

He’s up against businessman George Whitesides, who served as NASA chief of staff under former President Barack Obama.

Representative Marie Gluesenkamp Perez faces Republican rival Joe Kent in an October 7 debate [Jenny Kane/AP Photo]

Washington’s 3rd district:

Rematch, here we come.

Along Washington state’s mountainous coastline, right on the border with Oregon, sits the 3rd congressional district, another toss-up in this year’s battle for the House.

The race there reunites two rivals from the last election cycle: Marie Gluesenkamp Perez and Joe Kent.

In 2022, Gluesenkamp Perez, a Democrat, beat the Republican Kent in a close race, 50.1 percent to 49.3 percent. It was one of the closest margins of victory for a House race in the country.

Now, they face each other once again — and both sides are pitching themselves to voters as moderates.

A member of the centrist Blue Dog Coalition, Gluesenkamp Perez has often collaborated with Republicans, including on votes against student loan forgiveness and for short-term government funding.

The publication Politico described her as defying categorisation: it called her a “blue-collar, Bible-quoting, Israel-supporting, pro-choice, millennial Latina”.

On her website, Gluesenkamp Perez touts her ranking as the “most bipartisan member of Congress” from Washington state.

But Kent is also seeking to appeal to middle-ground voters, though he is considered far right.

Kent is a retired Green Beret and Central Intelligence Agency field operative, as well as an ex-foreign policy adviser to Trump. Still, in a debate earlier this month, he pledged to work with Democrats as well as Republicans.

“I’m more than happy to work with anybody who’s willing to actually secure our borders, stop the fentanyl, deport the illegals who have come into our country and balance the budget,” he said.

Representative Mary Peltola shakes hands at a campaign event in Juneau, Alaska, on August 3 [Becky Bohrer/AP Photo]

Alaska at-large district: 

Alaska is so sparsely populated that it receives only one representative in the House.

That means the entire state is one gigantic congressional district — the largest of any district in the US.

During the last election cycle, in 2022, candidate Mary Peltola made history. Not only did she become the first Alaska Native to be elected to the House, but she also became the first Democrat to represent Alaska’s at-large district since 1972.

To win the seat, she defeated two Republican contenders, one of whom was a former governor and vice presidential candidate, Sarah Palin.

But the second of those two contenders is gunning for another showdown. Nick Begich III is back in the race in 2024, hoping to unseat Peltola.

Begich, the founder of a software development firm, is part of a political dynasty in Alaska. His grandfather was the late Nick Begich Sr, who was the last Democrat to hold the at-large House seat before Peltola.

Alaska’s unique voting system, however, could add another competitor to the race.

Since 2022, Alaska has been one of only two states to use a process called ranked choice voting for statewide elections. Under its rules, up to four candidates can compete in the general election. If no one wins an outright majority in the first round of voting, a second round is held with only the top two candidates.

That system has allowed for Democrat Eric Hafner to enter the race: He claimed one of the four slots after other candidates dropped out. Hafner is currently five years into a 20-year sentence in a New Jersey prison, and he has never set foot in Alaska before.

Nevertheless, the state’s Democratic Party was unable to remove him from the ballot, even after filing a lawsuit.