Disgraced and isolated: As his axis falls, Iran's Khamenei finds himself alone

Khamenei is buried under the rubble of defeat, yet he still plots new schemes to create chaos and incite war, despite no longer having the power or energy to carry them out.

By ERAN FARD DECEMBER 17, 2024 02:01

IRANIAN SUPREME LEADER Ali Khamenei speaks in Tehran on December 4, 2024. (photo credit: Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader/West Asia News Agency/Reuters)

On December 11, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei delivered his first speech following Syrian president Bashar al-Assad’s fall, broadcast as a pre-recorded message.

Its significance rested solely on the propaganda spread by his supporters. During the 51-minute ramble, he offered no ideas, messages, or meaningful content. His speech was riddled with delusions – a chaotic and unsettling display.

Khamenei’s arguments came across as childish and riddled with lies and contradictions, and his sentences were often incoherent and disjointed. He embodies the traits of a stubborn, fearful, vengeful, and irrational dictator.

After my article in The Jerusalem Post on December 8, I appeared on Iran International TV at the invitation of Mehdi Parpanchi, the perceptive director of news, to discuss Assad’s downfall and the potential domino effect threatening the Islamic Republic. In advance, my friend Dr. Michael Rubin from the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) had written about the possibility of Iran and other regional nations facing collapse after Syria.

Khamenei lashed out in his December 11 speech, stating: “That ignorant analyst knows nothing about resistance, thinking it will weaken. Iran remains strong and mighty.”

Syrian President Bashar Assad speaks to pro-Kremlin journalist Vladimir Sovolyov, March 2024. (credit: screenshot)

I shared excerpts from both analyses on my social media. In 2022, after Khamenei criticized my book Trapped by Events – a dialogue with H. E. Parviz Sabeti, a former SAVAK secret police official—my lawyer (J.S.) advised me to inform the FBI and US Department of Homeland Security, which I did.

Desperately, Khamenei revealed how the humiliating defeat of the regime’s “Axis of Evil” in the Middle East, particularly against Israel, has left him disgraced, isolated, and despondent. He resorted to issuing threats. He tacitly acknowledged the misery and failure of the outlaw regime he leads, lamenting that the US and Israel had thwarted his ambitions for domination and continued violence.

His frustration was evident as he admitted to Israel’s success in disrupting arms and bomb shipments. For years, he has labeled the entire world as “enemies,” yet paradoxically expects these “enemies” to tolerate his provocations and terrorism.

Khamenei’s obstinate and misguided behavior

While his fantasies of silencing dissidents persist, his reign of fear and violence can no longer stifle the free flow of information. The regime scrambles to suppress dissent, with the US attorney general swiftly announcing legal action against critics and targeting analysts and commentators in a desperate bid to reactivate dormant terror cells, specifically on US soil.

Khamenei’s transnational Shi’ite Islamic terrorist network has crumbled and is no longer capable of spreading chaos across the Middle East: Decades of oppressing the Iranian people and squandering their wealth on ambitions of regional domination have unraveled. The collapse of this network marks not only a strategic defeat for Khamenei but also a turning point for those who have long suffered under his regime’s tyranny.

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Khamenei revealed his inability to accept defeat while expressing deep concern over the regional failures: The loss of Hamas and Hezbollah, leaving only the West Bank, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, the Houthis, and the Popular Mobilization Forces, highlights the disintegration of his once-influential network.

The special operations units in Lebanon and Syria within the IRGC have been rendered inactive, as they no longer have any practical capabilities.

Khamenei’s attempts to justify the regime’s actions hinge on superstitious Shi’ite narratives manufactured by the religious octopus: Despite his claims of fighting for Shi’ite shrines, even the IRGC’s commanders have admitted to intervening in Syria to save Assad long before ISIS appeared. Khamenei claimed that Iran’s involvement in Syria was to preserve security, but where in the world does an anti-security terrorist seek to protect security?

Khamenei repeatedly lied in his speech: For example, he claimed he wanted to help the people of Syria and Lebanon, but this was untrue; he had no intention of sending rice, flour, or oil – his aim was to send weapons.

Another lie was his justification for intervention in Syria, where he stated that Syria helped Iran during the eight-year war. However, he failed to mention that even then, supreme leader Ali Ruhollah Khomeini prolonged the war to such an extent that in November 1987, Syria, along with other Arab countries, condemned Iran for delaying the acceptance of Resolution 598 and explicitly expressed “solidarity” with Saddam Hussein – the criminal leader of Iraq.

Syria also signed a strongly worded statement from Arab countries in support of Saddam against Iran. In the Kayhan newspaper on Thursday, February 8, 1979, it was reported how Syria had supported Khomeini and his terrorist gang before 1979. Notably, Assad’s fall brought joy to the Iranian people.

Another defeat for Khamenei came when Hamas congratulated the anti-Assad armed forces on their victory in Syria. This is reminiscent of the time when Khomeini formed his interim government in front of Yasser Arafat and Muammar Gaddafi’s envoy – both of whom later supported Saddam.

One point was glaringly evident: Khamenei is buried under the rubble of defeat, yet he still plots new schemes to create chaos and incite war, despite no longer having the power or energy to carry them out.

The stubborn old fool refuses to learn from developments and fails to understand that killing, threats, and suppression will lead him nowhere. This is a path that dictators around the world have trodden, reaching no destination, and he too will remain buried in this sewer.

The ruthless tyrant of Iran demonstrated that he still lacks any understanding of reality: He fundamentally fails to comprehend international relations and remains immersed in his own delusions and fantasies. For his own consolation, he delivers long speeches that resemble incoherent rambling. His words lack scientific basis, are not grounded in reality, and have no foundation in reason or logic.

All of Iran’s wealth has been squandered on expanding Islamic terrorism, arms trafficking, and financing terrorism. Thanks to Israel, all of his deterrence power, defensive military capabilities, and his so-called axis of evil have been destroyed.

Khamenei and his incapable regime failed to launch a third military attack on Israel and know that Donald Trump is on his way to the White House: The Islamic Republic has effectively become weaker, and its survival faces serious danger. In these circumstances, he is merely content with announcing the construction of an atomic bomb, but this will certainly lead to a military strike on nuclear facilities, coordinated by the CIA and Mossad.

The powerless, exhausted, and humiliated loser of the Middle East is Khamenei and his regime. These are villains and thugs who lack the support of the Iranian people. Iranian society has no dialogue even with a weak dictator.

American and Israeli intelligence agencies also know that without regime change in Iran, there will be no peace, stability, or calm in the Middle East. Seeing the Islamic Republic fall into a downward spiral of weakness and defeat is a pleasing scene for them.

They know that the weaker it becomes, the less ability it has to ignite fires and wage war, and it is forced to retreat, surviving only through its repression machine and propaganda. The regime in Tehran is severely lacking in any tools or resources. They know that in the eyes of the people, the Islamic Republic is dead and should be buried. The mafia and military junta regime is on the verge of collapse.

He continued his speech with empty promises and hollow slogans, his face crumpled and devastated. He offered no substance in his claims or military displays. His terrorist organizations have collapsed, his imaginary resistance front has been destroyed, and he lacks the ability to rebuild.

Like a defeated army in war, he has no possibility of reconstruction. In his mind, the whole world is to blame, and he judges everyone.

The mullah’s regime has been rhetorically disarmed and is at an impasse. It is a regime without allies or friends; it is crisis-ridden, impoverished, and politically paralyzed.

Khamenei did not even dare to mention the names of Turkey or Russia in his speech: He neither criticized Bashar Assad nor uttered a single word against Vladimir Putin or Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Instead, he threatened the Iranian people, critics, and analysts. He remains committed to continuing the path of rebellion, as his survival depends on it. He is fundamentally unwilling to coexist with the modern world.

Amid lies and threats and failing to address consecutive defeats, he promises the appearance of something that doesn’t exist, and the crisis has engulfed all pillars of the corrupt regime.

History assures us that the day will come when the Iranian people will no longer hear that trembling, discordant voice. Iranians, well-versed in the poet Ferdowsi’s Shahnameh, (The Book of Kings) know the truth: Tyranny leads to destruction.

The writer is a counterterrorism analyst and Middle East studies researcher based in Washington, with a particular focus on Iran and ethnic conflicts in the region. His latest book is The Black Shabbat, published in the US. You can follow him at erfanfard.com and on X @EQFARD.