Do Not Fall for Iran's Nuclear Negotiation Trap: A Strategy to Buy Time

The Iranian regime's goal is clear: buy time, reach a sweetheart deal similar to the one it was handed by the Obama administration, secure sanctions relief and opportunities to complete its nuclear weapons. Pictured: Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' Aerospace Force Amir Ali Hajizadeh look on as a Jihad missile is displayed at a parade in Tehran on September 21, 2024. (Photo by Atta Kenare/AFP via Getty Images)

The Iranian regime has made a sudden and calculated move to engage in talks about nuclear weapons. The UK, France, and Germany have announced that negotiations will begin on January 13.

Lest anyone think that this is a genuine attempt at diplomacy, it is not. Rather, it is a maneuver aimed at deceptively buying time, avoiding sanctions and deflecting impending actions of the Trump administration.

Iran's regime is playing a game of manipulation, apparently hoping to mislead the world and stave off serious consequences -- namely losing their nuclear weapons program -- which, mind-bogglingly, it denies even having, as well as, more importantly, losing their jobs. Their move is not an expression of good will or "putting out feelers" -- it is anything but. It is a tactic known by every four-year old and absolutely should not be taken at face value.

Many Westerners appear afflicted with the starry-eyed mirage that they can bribe, cajole or negotiate Iran's power-happy jihadists into abandoning their dreams of "exporting the revolution," making their nuclear weapons too risky to challenge, and restarting their long-term goal of becoming the hegemon of the Middle East -- with the ultimate goal of delivering "Death to America" and "Death to Israel."

Why, one might well ask, is Iran's regime suddenly seeking nuclear talks just now? For the past four years, under the Biden administration, Iran has been rapidly advancing its nuclear weapons program, pretending to negotiate and openly defying the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) by denying inspectors access to the country's nuclear sites. So, why the change of heart? The answer lies not in any newfound willingness to cooperate, but in a combination of factors that have significantly weakened Iran's position.

The first is Iran's weakened military position, largely due to Israel having decimated two of its proxies, Hamas and Hezbollah, as well as delivering a few sobering hits on Iran itself. Those served to diminish the regime's ability to carry out attacks and destabilize the region before the regime reaches nuclear weapons breakout.

It was the efforts of Israel that indirectly contributed to the fall of Syria's Assad regime at the hands of the Turkish-sponsored terrorist group, Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), led by Ahmed Al-Sharaa, formerly known by his "terrorist" name, Abu Mohammad al-Jolani. Incidentally, "Sham" means all of the Levant, not just Syria: Lebanon, Israel, Jordan, Cyprus, and Turkey's Hatay Province (Alexandretta).

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who backed HTS, apparently now sees a neo-Ottoman Turkey finally replacing Iran as the aspiring hegemon in the region, with himself as sultan.

When Israel weakened Hezbollah -- Iran's staunches ally -- Syrian President Bashar Assad was left without its critical military support. HTS was able to cut through Assad's military forces in a mere 10 days, and overthrew Assad -- who quickly boarded a plane to Moscow

Only a year and a half ago, Iran was firmly in control, directing its proxies to attack Israel so they would receive the retaliatory strikes instead of Tehran, and arming Russia against Ukraine. Like Russia, it started a war. The moral of the story should probably be: Before you start a war, are you ready to lose it?

The second reason Iran is suddenly panting to negotiate a new nuclear deal is the imminent inauguration of President-elect Donald J. Trump on January 20. The prospect must be causing massive alarm within the Iranian leadership. Trump is expected to reactivate his policy of "maximum pressure" on Iran. The regime's worst nightmare of Trump returning to office, staunchly supporting Israel, and intensifying sanctions, is a package the ruling mullahs cannot cheerfully accept. As a result, Iran is scrambling to negotiate in a last-ditch effort to secure a temporary reprieve.

The Iranian regime's desperation is evident from its sudden overture for talks. If Iran still had the same power and influence it wielded just a year ago, it would not be seeking negotiations. Instead, it would undoubtedly be continuing its posture of confrontation.

The regime's goal is clear: buy time, reach a sweetheart deal similar to the one it was handed by the Obama administration, secure sanctions relief and opportunities to complete its nuclear weapons.

Unless Iran is stopped, it will continue covertly to advance its nuclear weapons program – regardless, of course, of any agreements made.

To President Trump: Please do not fall for Iran's silky overtures. Its regime is nothing but a fraud. It is using diplomacy as a tool to get breathing space to regain its strength. Its nuclear infrastructure must be completely dismantled to eliminate permanently the threat it poses to global security.

Playing at their game of negotiating will only serve to weaken the Iranian people, who are desperate for regime change. It is to be hoped that the incoming Trump administration will fully support the Iranian people in their struggle for freedom. Do not allow the regime's sleazy game to continue. Such an outcome would only benefit a zealous theocracy and, as it has in the past, harm the US and the West. Iran-back proxies, since October 7, 2023, have attacked US troops in the Middle East more than 150 times.

More importantly, please do not stop with just removing Iran's nuclear weapons capability. The regime itself has wreaked havoc on it neighbors, on the Iranian people and on the world for more than four decades. Thanks to Israel, Iran is now on its knees.

Will the incoming Trump administration let themselves be gamed and permit Iran to be capable of threatening the region again as soon as Trump's term is up? Iran's request for negotiations sadly seems part of a larger strategy to enable it to resume its reign of terror. The Trump administration must not allow it to succeed. Now is the time to dismantle this threat once and for all. Make Persia Safe Again! -- for the Iranian people and for enduring global peace.

Dr. Majid Rafizadeh, is a political scientist, Harvard-educated analyst, and board member of Harvard International Review. He has authored several books on the US Foreign Policy. He can be reached at dr.rafizadeh@post.harvard.edu