Does social media influence elections?

Germany holds snap federal elections on February 23, 2025. For tech billionaire and Trump associate Elon Musk, it is clear who should win the election: the Alternative for Germany (AfD)— a party that is partially classified as right-wing extremist by the German Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution.

Musk wrote on X, the social media platform formerly called Twitter, that only the AfD can save Germany. He has also offered the AfD's leader, Alice Weidel, a joint conversation on X, which he owns.

On German social media, the AfD is considered the most agile party, especially on TikTok, where their videos are watched by hundreds of thousands of people.

What impact does social media have on voters' values and beliefs?

The algorithms behind social media platforms determine what we see. An algorithm prioritizes content from well-known figures or content that many other users have liked or commented upon. Or it stops showing content altogether if it has been frequently ignored.

This can lead to a one-sided perspective where one's own worldview is reinforced, and other viewpoints are ignored — it's what experts call a "filter bubble". This can have the effect of strengthening values and beliefs that we have already developed.

But according to Judith Möller, professor of communication research at the Leibniz Institute for Media Research, media of all kinds have only a very small impact on electoral decisions.

"The decision to vote has many different causes. It depends on where and how one grew up, what personal experiences one has had — especially in the weeks before the election — or who one talks to about the election and politics."

On social media, new movements and parties can become visible quickly. But in general, social media mostly reach one's own supporters — and possibly some undecided individuals.

"You can hardly convince people of something new; you can only convince those who are already convinced," said Möller.

Fake news and hate speech

The handling of misinformation will become even more problematic in the future. Fake news is likely to increase on Facebook and Instagram after Meta announced it will stop professionally fact-checking its social media platforms.

Two effects could be observed here, said Nicole Krämer, an expert in Social Psychology, Media, and Communication at the University of Duisburg-Essen.

On the one hand, surveys show that people do not want to fall for disinformation. "The more important a question is for one's own life, the more skilled people are at searching for information that really helps them. [This means finding] information that is credible and balanced," said Krämer.

But, on the other hand, if misinformation aligns with what someone already thinks, it's more likely to be believed, "even if initially one thinks: this can't be true," Krämer explains.

There is another mechanism at play, says Krämer: "The more often you hear, read, or see a false piece of news, the more likely it is to stick in your memory."

This leads to the situation where false information sometimes becomes anchored, despite people trying to avoid it.

Elon Musk hosted Alternative for Germany party co-leader Alice Weidel for a live talk on the social media platform X. He has not hosted other German political parties.Image: Frank Hoermann/Sven Simon/picture alliance

Election fraud via Facebook?

From a scientific perspective, it would be wrong to believe that social networks do not influence elections, said Andreas Jungherr, professor of political science and digital transformation at Otto-Friedrich University in Bamberg.

However, it is necessary to look closely at how the campaign was conducted, "especially when there are suspicions that foreign influence is involved, there are other methods that do not rely on TikTok," Jungherr said.

Messages do not succeed through social networks by default, said Möller. But if social media align with issues that concern people and are otherwise ignored, then they can succeed.

Do social media debates reflect public opinion?

Discussions on social platforms should not be ignored, but they must be properly contextualized, says Philipp Müller, an academic advisor at the Institute for Media and Communication Studies at the University of Mannheim.

"Social media presents a somewhat distorted reality. Often, ignored positions are overemphasized and may appear larger than they originally were in the general population," he said.

This is also true for the large progressive movements of recent years, such as the acceptance of different gender identities.

Jungherr sees social media as a kind of stress test for democracy. Digital media make the fault lines of different positions in society more visible. However, they do not accurately reflect these fault lines, he said.

Therefore, it is crucial to ask: "Is this truly a societal problem? What is the factual situation? And if it is indeed a problem, can we solve it politically?"

If a society suppresses issues instead of addressing them and placing them in context, Jungherr said, "[then] democracy misses an opportunity."

This article was originally published in German.