Don’t Count Out A Republican Overperformance In November

For months, the narrative has been that Republicans will be decimated in the midterm elections, but some of these predictions are missing a critical factor.

Since 2016, national and state polls have repeatedly failed to account for a quieter segment of voters who are traditionally harder to reach. These voters are often working-class and less engaged Republicans, and they account for about a 2- to 4-point difference (sometimes more) between election predictions and outcomes.