By Daily Mail (U.S.) | Created at 2024-09-28 16:50:56 | Updated at 2024-09-30 09:30:04
1 day ago
A shock new poll found Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are neck and neck in two key swing states that will decide the race for the White House.
With just seven weeks until election day, Harris leads Trump by a single point, 48 percent to 47 percent, in Michigan, and by two in Wisconsin, 49 percent to 47 percent, according to a New York Times/ Siena College poll.
The poll shows a slight dip in support for Harris as her momentum from replacing President Biden at the top of the Democratic ticket has seemingly waned.
In particular, the vice president's perceived weakness on the economy compared to Trump was cited as a driving factor for her decline, and could impact down ballot races that lean Democratic but showed support for Trump.
Vice President Kamala Harris holds a razor-thin lead in Wisconsin and Michigan with seven weeks until election day according to a new poll
Trump is perceived by voters as stronger than Harris on the economy but loses support on the politically vulnerable issue of abortion
The poll notably found both Harris and Trump's levels of support within the margin of error, essentially placing them in a tie in Michigan and Wisconsin, which combined offer 25 electoral college votes.
Wisconsin has been decided by less than a single point in four of the last six elections, while Joe Biden won Michigan by just three points in 2020.
The two states are among just a handful that will decide the election, with Harris consistently leading national polls but disadvantaged by the electoral college.
While Ohio is not considered a battleground state, the poll also focused on voters in the state to show how the presidential race is impacting down ballot elections as it plays host to one of the most competitive senate battles in November.
It found that incumbent Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown holds a four-point lead over Republican opponent Bernie Moreno, despite Harris losing to Trump by six points.
The result shows a concerning split between voters who are open to supporting Democratic candidates but have not swung for Harris in the presidential race.
Wisconsin voter Antonio Dawkins, 40, told the New York Times that he was among those who planned to vote on state races in the election but was not convinced in the presidential race, and said he may leave the presidential line blank.
'She’s kind of taking the car salesman pitch and trying to sell everybody that she’s not Trump, and that’s not enough,' Dawkins said.
'She says a lot of things that sound good with no details. So, I guess they call that — there’s no meat and potatoes.'
When asked about the candidates' policy platforms, voters swung to Trump by five points, 46 to 41, on whose policies were more likely to help them personally.
However, when asked which candidate they trusted more to 'help people like you', voters gave Harris a slight edge, showing a chasm between the candidates' perceived personalities and their platforms.
In Wisconsin, 55 percent of 'undecided' voters cited Trump's behavior, temperament and honesty in office as their chief concern in potentially supporting the former president, and in Michigan that number stood at 47 percent.
Voters also said that the economy was the most important issue for them heading into the election, while abortion ranked second - a topic that is seen as politically vulnerable for Trump.
Harris, seen on a visit to the southern border this week, was seen as more trustworthy on the economy among voters in the poll, but lost support when it came to specific policies
Abortion is appearing to grow in the consciousness of Americans with seven weeks until ballots open, with 18 percent saying it was their central reason for voting, compared to 13 percent when asked by the same pollster in May.
On abortion, voters in Michigan supported Harris over Mr. Trump by 20 points and in Wisconsin by 13 points.
With poll after poll showing the presidential race is set to be a nail-biter, forecasters have warned that there is a possibility one single congressional district in Nebraska could be the decider.
In an unlikely but statistically possible scenario, Harris and Trump could each struggle to reach the 270 electoral college votes required to win, and Nebraska's slightly different system of awarding its votes could make all the difference.
Nebraska is one of only two states, along with Maine, that allocates electoral votes by congressional district, while all others have a winner-take-all system.
Under Nebraska's current system, Donald Trump is almost certain to win four of the state's five electoral college votes, while the Democratic-leaning district of Omaha could offer Kamala Harris a single electoral college vote.
A majority of undecided voters in Wisconsin cited Trump's behavior, temperament and honesty in office as their chief concern in potentially supporting the former president
In the New York Times/ Siena College poll, Harris held a strong nine percent lead in that district, while Trump is expected to easily carry the statewide race.
This same result occurred in the 2020 election, where Joe Biden picked up an electoral college vote despite losing the state by over 19 points.
For a presidential candidate to win the presidency under the electoral college, they must win at least 270 votes.
If neither party does so, the fate of the nation is placed in the hands of the House of Representatives, which awards votes based on support of each state delegation rather than the total number of congressmembers voting.
This would almost certainly hand Trump a second term in the White House as Republicans control more House delegations.
Namely, Omaha's outstanding electoral college vote could take on national importance if Harris wins the 'Blue Wall' - Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin - but loses the other swing states of Nevada, Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina.
In that case, the one electoral college vote would be the difference between a 269-269 tie and Harris winning 270-268.
