By Daily Mail (U.S.) | Created at 2024-10-29 21:36:44 | Updated at 2024-10-30 23:22:18
1 day ago
Kamala Harris and Donald Trump have set their sights on Pennsylvania as key to victory in the presidential election. But it is not their only path to the White House.
Last week, Harris visited the state twice with campaign events in Erie and Washington Crossing, Pennsylvania. Trump campaigned in Oaks, Pennsylvania, and Latrobe outside Pittsburgh.
Pennsylvania with its nineteen electoral votes is the biggest of the seven battleground states that could swing either way and decide the election.
And the latest polling is showing the race in a dead heat in the crucial swing state, with Trump up just half a point in the Real Clear Politics average.
While the path forward to the necessary 270 electoral votes becomes much more complicated without Pennsylvania, it does not mean the race is over for either Trump or Harris.
Kamala Harris and Donald Trump would have an easier time winning the White House if they have a victory in Pennsylvania, but winning the battleground state is not their only path to the presidency
The ex-president won the state in 2016 on his path to the White House by less than 70,000 votes. But President Biden flipped it back to blue in 2020 by just 80,000 votes.
If Harris wins Pennsylvania, then Trump's likeliest path to victory appears to be taking Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina and Michigan.
Should Trump win Pennsylvania, then Harris' likeliest path to the White House seems to be winning Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada and either Georgia or North Carolina.
Democrats have not won the White House without winning the Keystone State since 1948, but Republicans have successfully won in more recent years without it.
Seven states are considered swing states in the 2024 presidential race with 93 electoral votes up for grabs, but the path to the White House will come down to who wins Pennsylvania, Georgia and North Carolina
President George W. Bush served two terms without winning the state in 2000 and 2004.
The state is shaping up as the most expensive battleground too with hundreds of millions - more than half a billion in total - being spent by both Democrats and Republicans on advertising there in the final stretch in the presidential race.
DailyMail.com breaks down what each candidate would need to do the clinch the presidency without winning the crucial Keystone State:
Trump's path to win without Pennsylvania
If Trump does not win Pennsylvania, his path to the White House is much harder though not impossible.
No matter what, Trump would have to make sure he locks in either Georgia or North Carolina.
He has won both states before. He clinched North Carolina in both 2016 and 2020. He won Georgia in 2016 as well but lost it by a razor-thin margin in 2020.
Even if he wins both, he would still need to cut into Democrats so-called ‘blue wall’ elsewhere, be it Michigan or Wisconsin.
Both are states Democrats have has a slight advantage in but are razor-thin in the final stretch.
Former President Trump's likely battleground state path without Pennsylvania could involve picking up both southern swing states and Arizona as well as at least one other 'blue wall' state like Michigan
If he wins both southern swing states, the ex-president would still also need a combination of at least two other battleground states, likely Arizona and then at least one of either Wisconsin or Michigan.
If he cannot lock in both Georgia and North Carolina, he would need to carry at least one of them plus all other four battlegrounds including Arizona, Nevada, Michigan and Wisconsin to win the White House.
Harris' path to win without Pennsylvania
For Harris, not winning the Keystone State also seriously complicates her path to victory but does not eliminate her win altogether.
Harris would need to win either Georgia or North Carolina if she loses Pennsylvania to have any path forward as well as at least three or potentially four other battleground states out of Arizona, Michigan, Nevada and Wisconsin.
Polls have shown her in tied races in Michigan, Nevada and Wisconsin while Trump has a slight edge in Arizona.
Without Pennsylvania, Vice President Harris' battleground state path to victory includes the two other 'blue wall states' a western state like Nevada as well as at least one southern swing state like Georgia which Democrats won in 2020. The path could also swap out Georgia for North Carolina
While Biden won Georgia in 2020, the latest average of polls by Real Clear Politics shows Harris trailing in both southern swing states.
She’s down nearly a point in Georgia and just over a point in North Carolina.
With that, Harris was in Georgia to urge people to get out and vote on Saturday with a rally in Atlanta. She will also head back to the state for her first joint campaign appearance with former President Obama on Thursday.
