Election polling could be underestimating this candidate, data guru warns

CNN data reporter Harry Enten warned on Tuesday that election polling could be underestimating Vice President Kamala Harris rather than former President Trump, who has been historically underestimated in election polling in previous cycles.

“If the polls are going to underestimate Donald Trump, once again, that would be historically unprecedented,” Enten said. “What normally happens is the pollsters catch on, ‘Hey, we‘re underestimating, we‘re not taking into account some part of the electorate.’ They make adjustments, and I think that helps to explain why we have never seen that the same party has been underestimated three times in a row in presidential elections, at least in the last 52 years.”

CNN’s John Berman also asked Enten about the 2022 midterm elections, when Democrats exceeded expectations, and what they might indicate about the polls in key swing states.

“What do we see in 2022 in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin? Well, it turns out that the average poll in those states actually underestimated Democrats by four points. It underestimated Democrats by four points. And I want to apply that to the electoral map because [if] it turns out that the polls underestimated the Democrats like they did in 2022, well Kamala Harris wins a sweep,” Enten said. 

CNN data reporter Harry Enten said on Tuesday that Kamala Harris might be underestimated in election polling. Michael Brochstein/ZUMA Press Wire / SplashNews.com

“I think a lot of folks are sort of counting in that Donald Trump will in fact be underestimated by the polls. But when I’m looking at the evidence, I think you got to hold on a second. Maybe that‘ll happen. Maybe it will happen. But I think that there are folks who are underestimating the idea that maybe Kamala Harris will be underestimated by the polls,” Enten concluded.

Enten has also warned that polling has underestimated the former president in the past, and while he was trailing Harris earlier in the cycle, the race for the White House in key swing states is effectively tied.

Republican presidential nominee and former U.S. President Donald Trump attends a campaign event, in Allentown, Pennsylvania, U.S., October 29, 2024. REUTERS

Polling guru Nate Silver similarly warned in August that Trump has been underestimated in the last two elections.

In early October, Enten said if the polls are off like they were in 2020, Trump would win in a “blowout.”

“What happens then? Well, then Donald Trump wins the election in a blowout with 312 electoral votes because he carries all these Great Lake battleground states plus Nevada, plus the other states he was leading in — Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia,” he said at the time.