England vs Albania Prediction

We look ahead to Friday’s World Cup Qualifier at Wembley with our England vs Albania prediction and preview. Will Thomas Tuchel get off to a winning start?

England vs Albania Stats: The Key Insights

• England are overwhelming favourites according to the Opta supercomputer, with the Three Lions given an 80.1% win probability.
• This will be Thomas Tuchel’s first game in charge. Each of the last 10 permanent managers have won their first game as England boss.
• Jude Bellingham is set to break Wayne Rooney’s record of England caps while aged 21 or under.

It’s the start of a new era for England on Friday as Thomas Tuchel takes to the touchline for the first time as head coach.

The German officially started in his new role in January, having been named as the permanent successor to Gareth Southgate.

Lee Carsley saw England through their Nations League campaign prior to the turn of the year, but never looked likely to be given the job on a full-time basis. He never really seemed like he wanted it all that much, either.

Carsley did, however, bow out with a 5-0 thrashing of the Republic of Ireland.

Tuchel has been presented with as comfortable a start as you could ask for, really. Albania followed by Latvia, both at home.

Sure, Albania provided some spark and fight at Euro 2024, but England are firm favourites for this World Cup qualifier at Wembley.

Tuchel is out to extend a long run of permanent England bosses to have won their first game. All of the last 10 have done so, since Bobby Robson drew 1-1 with Denmark in 1982.

The only permanent manager to lose his first game was Alf Ramsey in 1963 against France. Not that it did the only England boss to win a major trophy much harm in the long run.

Albania have never won a competitive match against a nation who are in the top 10 of the FIFA World Rankings (D2 L17). Including friendlies, they did beat France (ranked ninth) 1-0 in June 2015 thanks to a goal from Ergys Kaçe.

So, Tuchel has a great chance to get off to a strong start, even if his squad selection last week did raise some eyebrows.

Marcus Rashford has come back in from the cold after a solid few weeks at Aston Villa, though Tuchel’s selection of Kyle Walker and Jordan Henderson were the picks that really got people talking.

Jordan Pickford backed the call to get Henderson, in particular, back in the fold. Southgate stood by the midfielder after his move from Liverpool to the Saudi Pro League, though did then leave the former Reds captain out of his Euro 2024 squad, despite Henderson moving to Ajax in the January transfer window last year.

Henderson has 81 England caps to his name. Since he made his international bow in November 2010, only Harry Kane (103), Walker (93), John Stones (83) and Raheem Sterling (82) have played more times for the Three Lions.

Morgan Gibbs-White was a notable omission from the initial squad, though with doubts over Cole Palmer‘s fitness, the Nottingham Forest star was subsequently called up on Sunday, having played brilliantly in a 4-2 win over Ipswich Town last weekend.

Gibbs-White teed up Jota Silva’s goal for Forest. That was his 40th Premier League goal involvement for the club (15 goals, 25 assists), seeing him overtake Bryan Roy (39). Only Ian Woan (44) has more combined goals and assists for the Tricky Trees in the competition.

Dan Burn received his first England call-up, and though he is 32, the centre-back is well deserving of some international recognition.

Burn has had a stellar week. He scored in Newcastle United’s 2-1 win over Liverpool in Sunday’s EFL Cup final, as the Magpies ended a 70-year wait for a domestic trophy. He made a game-leading 11 clearances in that match, and won seven of his nine duels.

In the Premier League this season, no player has won more aerial duels than the former Brighton defender’s tally of 101. Burn has made 20 blocks in the top flight this term, ranking 16th in the top flight overall, while he ranks 12th for clearances (135) and joint-ninth for headed clearances (69).

At the top end of the pitch, Harry Kane will be aiming to get up and running for the year in international colours.

Robert Lewandowski (35) is the only player in Europe’s top five leagues to score more goals in all competitions than Kane (32) in 2024-25, and while playing under Tuchel at Bayern Munich, the England skipper plundered 44 goals.

Since Kane made his first appearance in a World Cup qualifier in September 2016, only Lewandowski (25) and Cristiano Ronaldo (21) have netted more qualifying goals among European players than Kane (17 in 14 games). The Bayern forward has also been involved in six goals in two games against Albania (4 goals, 2 assists).

Behind Kane, there is Jude Bellingham, who is set to break Wayne Rooney’s record when it comes to England caps won before turning 22.

Bellingham’s next cap will be his 41st, surpassing Rooney’s 40. Since he made his England debut in November 2020, the Real Madrid star has contributed to 12 goals, a tally bettered by only Bukayo Saka (16) and Kane (45) in that time. He has been involved in 10 goals in his last 15 appearances for England (5 goals, 5 assists).

England are unbeaten in their last 31 FIFA World Cup qualifiers (W23 D8), the longest ongoing run of any European nation.

Only once have the Three Lions lost their first qualifier of a campaign (W13 D3), losing 1-0 to Germany in October 2000 in their final game at the old Wembley.

England vs Albania Head-to-Head

England have won all six of their previous matches against Albania.

They only have a better 100% win ratio against Luxembourg (9/9), San Marino (8/8) and Malta (7/7).

Albania have only scored one goal in six meetings with England, an Altin Rraklli strike in a 3-1 defeat in March 2001. They’ve conceded fewer goals per game (0.17) against Albania than against any other nation they have faced three or more times.

England vs Albania Prediction

England are the huge favourites according to the Opta supercomputer, which ran 10,000 data-led sims ahead of this game.

The Three Lions came out on top in 80.1% of those, while Albania are handed just a 7.7% win probability. The likelihood of a draw comes in at 12.2%.

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