England vs Latvia Prediction

We look ahead to Monday’s FIFA World Cup qualifier with our England vs Latvia prediction and preview. Will Thomas Tuchel make it two wins from two games in charge?

England vs Latvia Stats: The Key Insights

• England are heavily fancied to beat Latvia, with the Opta supercomputer assigning them a 94% chance of victory at Wembley Stadium.
• The Three Lions are unbeaten in their last 32 FIFA World Cup qualifiers (24 wins, eight draws), the longest ongoing run of any European nation. 
• After supplying an assist for Myles Lewis-Skelly against Albania, Jude Bellingham has teed up four goals in his last six games for England – more than he did in his first 35 caps (three).

The Thomas Tuchel era started in solid if unspectacular fashion on Friday, as England cruised to a 2-0 win over Albania to kickstart their FIFA World Cup qualification campaign.

While Tuchel relied largely on the core of players that served the Three Lions so well throughout Gareth Southgate’s eight years at the helm, there were a couple of surprise inclusions in his first lineup as Dan Burn and Myles Lewis-Skelly made their senior international debuts.

Lewis-Skelly could hardly have hoped for a better start to his Three Lions career, latching onto a pinpoint through ball from Jude Bellingham to score a 20th-minute opener and write his name into the record books.

Aged 18 years and 176 days, the Arsenal full-back became the youngest player to score on his senior England debut, surpassing Marcus Rashford’s record of 18 years and 209 days against Australia in May 2016.

A more familiar face got the second goal of the Tuchel era to wrap up the points in the second half, with Harry Kane tucking home for his 70th senior England goal.

Only seven other players still active at the international level have passed the 70-goal mark for their countries, with Cristiano Ronaldo, Lionel Messi, Romelu Lukaku, Robert Lewandowski and Neymar among them.

That strike made Kane the first England player to score on his first appearance under three different managers (Roy Hodgson, Southgate and Tuchel), while he has now netted 41 times in 36 appearances in qualifying for major tournaments (World Cup and Euros).

There was plenty of pre-game interest in how Tuchel would line England up, particularly after the former Paris Saint-Germain, Chelsea and Bayern Munich coach said the Three Lions lacked a coherent identity at Euro 2024.

He set them up in a 4-2-3-1 system, though Albania’s defensive approach meant there was little opportunity to see Tuchel’s trademark high press in action. The Three Lions had to be patient in their approach play, with their 437 successful passes in the first half their most in the first half of any match on record with Opta in any competition.

Their total of 863 passes (811 completed) by full-time was also England’s fifth-most on record in any World Cup qualifier, only playing more in three separate matches against San Marino (in 2012 and twice in 2021) and versus Malta in 2016.

But Tuchel declared after the match that England needed more from their wingers, saying Rashford and Phil Foden were “not as decisive as they can be”.

Rashford attempted (five) and completed (three) more dribbles than any other player on the pitch, though he only created one chance and failed to attempt a single shot. With Anthony Gordon suffering an injury late on, the Aston Villa loanee could get another opportunity on Monday, but he will need to supply a better end product.

Foden, meanwhile, has struggled to find his best form in an England shirt for some time now, going 17 international appearances without a goal or an assist since netting in a 3-1 friendly victory over Scotland in September 2023. His starting spot could be under threat, with Jarrod Bowen the most likely candidate to come in.

Bellingham will likely retain his place in the number 10 position after teeing up Lewis-Skelly’s debut goal, his fourth assist in his last six international appearances, one more than he recorded in his first 35 outings for England (three). The Real Madrid star now has 11 goal involvements in his last 16 England games, scoring five and assisting six.

Curtis Jones partnered Declan Rice at the base of midfield against Albania, but might Tuchel opt to make a change and bring in Jordan Henderson? By coming off the bench late on Friday, the Ajax man – who was already the first player to represent England while playing for a Saudi Arabian club – became the first player to play for England from a Dutch club.

Opponents Latvia also got off to a winning start in Group K on Friday, with Dario Šits’ goal enough to hand them a 1-0 victory in Andorra.

They have never qualified for the World Cup, with Euro 2004 representing the only major tournament finals appearance in their history, while they recently finished bottom of a UEFA Nations League group containing North Macedonia, Armenia and Faroe Islands.

England vs Latvia Head-to-Head

This will be the first-ever meeting between England and Latvia.

The Three Lions are unbeaten in their last 32 World Cup qualifiers (24 wins, eight draws), the longest ongoing run of any European nation. 

Latvia, meanwhile, are unbeaten in their last three World Cup qualifiers, having drawn 0-0 with Norway and beaten Gibraltar 3-1 to finish their unsuccessful 2022 campaign.

They last went more games without defeat in World Cup qualification between October 2008 and September 2009 (five matches) – their return of 17 points in that qualification campaign (for the 2010 World Cup) was the best in their history.

England vs Latvia Prediction

England, fourth in the FIFA World Rankings, made light work of the team ranked 65th in Albania, so it is no surprise that they are heavy favourites to overcome 140th-ranked Latvia.

Tuchel’s men were triumphant in 94% of the Opta supercomputer’s 10,000 pre-match simulations, losing in 2% and drawing in 4%.

With Serbia not beginning their campaign until June 7, the Three Lions have an opportunity to put some distance between themselves and their main Group K rivals.

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