Erdogan’s bane: Turkish president’s most powerful rival is arrested. What now?

On the morning of March 19, Turkish police carried out a special operation resulting in the arrest of Istanbul’s mayor and prominent opposition leader, Ekrem Imamoglu. Affiliated with the left-leaning Republican People’s Party (CHP), Imamoglu faces grave accusations, including establishing and leading a criminal enterprise, extortion, corruption, unauthorized access to personal data, rigging government contracts, and alleged connections to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), considered a terrorist organization in Türkiye. Turkish television stations aired live footage of Imamoglu’s arrest at his Istanbul residence.

More than a hundred others, including Imamoglu’s close associates, high-ranking municipal officials, business figures, and journalists, were also detained as part of the investigation. Similar charges brought against these individuals point to an extensive inquiry encompassing both political and socioeconomic dimensions.

Reactions and consequences

Ekrem Imamoglu’s arrest did not surprise those closely following Turkish politics or many within Türkiye. While some observers believed authorities would avoid extreme measures given Imamoglu’s popularity in Istanbul and nationwide, his prominence has long troubled the current government. He has repeatedly faced accusations of acting against state interests. Throughout his political career, the authorities frequently attempted to curb his influence or remove him from prominent roles.

In 2019, after Imamoglu initially won Istanbul’s mayoral race, Türkiye’s Supreme Election Council annulled the election results due to alleged irregularities, calling for a rerun. This decision ultimately backfired when Imamoglu not only reaffirmed his victory but significantly increased his margin over the Justice and Development Party (AKP) candidate. The triumph elevated Imamoglu from the mayor of Türkiye’s largest city to a symbolic leader of the entire opposition movement.

In recent months, Imamoglu firmly established himself as the main adversary of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s administration, and began to be viewed as the standard-bearer of the principles laid down by Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, founder of the Turkish Republic. His affiliation with the CHP –founded by Ataturk himself – underscores the symbolic importance of this role. Predictably, his arrest sparked fierce reactions from opposition leaders.

CHP chairman Ozgur Ozel called the arrest an “attempted coup,” accusing the government of seeking to eliminate a strong rival before the next election. Ozel wrote on X:

“We’re witnessing an attempted coup against our future president. If anyone tries to turn the state against the nation, the people won’t allow it and will ultimately prevail. We won’t back down; the people’s will shall triumph.”

Musavat Dervisoglu, a representative of the right-leaning IYI Party, voiced a similar sentiment in parliament, claiming the government had effectively suspended the constitution:

“If Erdogan runs again, the entire opposition must protest the elections.”

Imamoglu’s arrest has aggravated Türkiye’s domestic political situation, triggering adverse economic impacts as well. The Turkish lira plunged sharply after news of his detention broke: on the morning of March 19, the exchange rate stood at 36.7 Turkish lira to one dollar, but later peaked at 41 lira. The Istanbul Stock Exchange was also hit hard, with trading temporarily halted after a nearly 7% drop. This market volatility reflects investor anxiety over further political instability and potential economic fallout.

Although the lira partially stabilized – at approximately 38 lira per dollar as of midday GMT on March 20 – the risk of further currency depreciation remains. Given the ongoing political turmoil and financial market concerns, Turkish analysts warn the economic situation might deteriorate in the short term.

Convenient timing

Imamoglu’s arrest occurred just a day after Istanbul University, at the request of the attorney general, decided to revoke his university degree. This decision significantly complicates Imamoglu’s candidacy, as Türkiye’s constitution mandates that presidential candidates hold valid higher education degrees. Officially, the revocation is due to alleged irregularities in Imamoglu’s late 1980s transfer from a university in Northern Cyprus – a region whose educational institutions Ankara did not recognize at that time.

Furthermore, Imamoglu’s arrest came mere days before CHP’s party congress, where he was expected to officially receive the opposition nomination for the 2028 presidential race. Following Imamoglu’s detention, significant shifts occurred within the party. Mansur Yavas, Ankara’s mayor and another prominent CHP figure known for criticizing Erdogan, publicly announced he would not participate in the upcoming election.

Imamoglu had previously been subject to government prosecution. In 2022, he received a two-year, seven-month prison sentence and a political activity ban for allegedly insulting Supreme Election Council officials. That decision is now under appeal. However, the current charges against him are much more severe and may completely sideline him from politics.

Analysts broadly view Imamoglu’s arrest as a preemptive strike by authorities, aiming to neutralize a powerful rival amid declining support for President Erdogan. Despite the next presidential vote being three years away, Imamoglu had recently intensified campaigning, calling for early elections due to the country’s worsening economic crisis. Increasing protests nationwide have made an early vote more likely, prompting the government to remove a key opposition figure well in advance of the campaign season.

Political miscalculation?

Ekrem Imamoglu distinguishes himself by appealing to a broader demographic base. Traditionally, the CHP courts secular voters, but Imamoglu’s open embrace of religious practice makes him attractive to moderately conservative supporters typically aligned with Erdogan. Moreover, he enjoys considerable support from the Kurdish community, providing additional electoral advantages. Consequently, Imamoglu’s arrest risks backfiring, potentially bolstering his popularity by making him appear to be a martyr targeted by government repression – a scenario resembling Erdogan’s own early political rise, and which ultimately strengthened his popularity.

So far, Erdogan himself has refrained from commenting on Imamoglu’s arrest. However, the president’s close allies have clearly expressed their stance against opposition criticism. Devlet Bahceli, leader of the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) and Erdogan’s coalition partner, harshly condemned opposition leaders, emphasizing Türkiye’s independent judiciary system and labeling any questioning of judicial decisions as “calls for discord and violence.”

The decision to detain Imamoglu might prove less effective than previous tactics against opposition figures. While past strategies of forceful suppression effectively sidelined political adversaries, this situation could unfold unpredictably, exceeding the government’s expectations.

Despite his popularity, Imamoglu has faced criticism within his own party. His tenure as Istanbul’s mayor drew scrutiny, even from CHP colleagues, over perceived management failures amid the economic downturn, traffic congestion, and housing shortages. The 2023 presidential election saw Istanbul, the supposed opposition stronghold, nearly evenly split votes between Erdogan and CHP candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu, despite Imamoglu’s vigorous campaigning efforts. This revealed limits to Imamoglu’s influence and highlighted substantial AKP support in Türkiye’s largest city.

Nevertheless, events on March 19 dramatically altered this dynamic. Imamoglu’s arrest united the previously fragmented and internally conflicted opposition. His persecution has become a rallying point for regime opponents, potentially complicating Erdogan’s position. Instead of neutralizing a political adversary, Erdogan risks igniting widespread discontent and protests even among some of his own supporters, whose reactions have not been uniformly positive.

Ultimately, while Imamoglu’s arrest may seem a short-term tactical win for authorities, it carries significant long-term risks. Attempting to politically neutralize a key opponent amid mounting economic crises might spark increased public unrest and foster greater opposition unity, posing new, unforeseen challenges for Erdogan’s leadership.