Eredivisie Predictions 2026-27: The Opta Supercomputer Projections

PSV stormed to glory in the Dutch top-flight last season, but who will win the title in 2026-27? We attempt to answer all the key questions with our Eredivisie season predictions via the Opta supercomputer.

With the dust having settled on a busy summer, during which several Eredivisie stars impressed at the FIFA World Cup, the Dutch top-flight returns on Friday for the start of the 2026-27 season.

Following a campaign in which PSV comfortably retained the title, the challenge for the rest of the league is clear: close the gap and make the title race more competitive.

Before the new season gets underway, we use the Opta supercomputer’s predictions to assess the favourites for the Eredivisie crown, as well as the clubs most at risk of relegation.

Who Will Win the Eredivisie Title?

PSV: 48.6%

With the Netherlands losing one of its two automatic UEFA Champions League qualification spots ahead of the 2026-27 season, winning the Eredivisie has become even more valuable. The league title now guarantees the country’s only direct place in Europe’s premier club competition.

PSV have won each of the last three Eredivisie titles, making Peter Bosz’s side the clear favourites to lift the trophy once again. The Opta supercomputer crowned PSV champions in almost half of its 10,000 pre-season simulations (48.6%).

Each of PSV’s three consecutive title-winning campaigns has followed a different script.

In 2023-24, the club from Eindhoven produced one of the most impressive seasons in Eredivisie history, finishing on 91 points – a total surpassed only by the legendary Ajax side of the early 1970s.

The following season was far more dramatic. Despite surrendering a nine-point lead during the campaign, PSV edged Ajax to the title on the final matchday.

Last season, however, normal service resumed as Bosz’s team cruised to the championship, finishing 19 points clear of runners-up Feyenoord – the largest winning margin ever recorded by an Eredivisie champion. Feyenoord’s points total also made them one of the lowest-scoring runners-up in league history.

Winning four consecutive Dutch league titles remains a rare achievement. Only three teams have managed it, with PSV responsible for two of those streaks: between 1985-86 and 1988-89, and again from 2004-05 to 2007-08. Ajax are the only other club to accomplish the feat, claiming four straight championships between 2010-11 and 2013-14 under Frank de Boer. The former Netherlands record international remains the only manager to win four consecutive Eredivisie titles, a record Peter Bosz will now be aiming to equal this season.

Feyenoord: 11.8%

Feyenoord finished as the best of the rest last season, but the sizeable gap to PSV ultimately proved costly for Robin van Persie, who was relieved of his duties. In his place returns Giovanni van Bronckhorst, back at De Kuip for a second spell in charge.

Van Bronckhorst knows exactly what it takes to bring success to Rotterdam. He guided Feyenoord to the 2016-17 Eredivisie title, ending an 18-year wait for league glory. Now back at the helm, he has the chance to become the first manager to lead the club to two Eredivisie championships. Feyenoord also retain last season’s top scorer Ayase Ueda, whose 25 league goals were followed by an excellent World Cup campaign.

According to the Opta supercomputer, Feyenoord are the most likely challengers to PSV. They lifted the title in 11.8% of the 10,000 pre-season simulations.

Ajax: 10.2%

Ajax complete the traditional Dutch ‘big three’ and emerge as another genuine contender, winning the title in 10.2% of the Opta supercomputer’s pre-season simulations.

After a disappointing 2025-26 campaign that ended with a fifth-place finish, the Amsterdam club have appointed Michel Sánchez as head coach.

Despite arriving on the back of Girona’s relegation from La Liga, Sánchez previously guided the Spanish club into the UEFA Champions League and will be tasked with restoring Ajax to Europe’s elite. Under technical director Jordi Cruyff, Ajax have been among the busiest clubs in the transfer market, adding a wealth of experience to their squad.

One of the high-profile signings is club legend Daley Blind, who reunites with Sánchez after returning from Spain for his third spell in Amsterdam. Blind has already made 226 Eredivisie appearances for Ajax and 243 in the competition overall.

Among others, Ajax have also strengthened with the arrivals of Julian Brandt, who brings experience from 383 Bundesliga matches, and Marc-André ter Stegen, who has featured in 401 league games across Germany and Spain.

Following last season’s disappointment, Ajax will be determined to respond, and reclaiming the Eredivisie title would represent the perfect statement.

AZ: 8.6%

AZ could prove to be this season’s surprise package. According to the pre-season Opta projections, the Alkmaar club have the fourth-best chance of winning the Eredivisie title (8.6%).

They offered an early reminder of their potential on Sunday by producing an emphatic 4-0 victory over reigning champions PSV in the Johan Cruyff Shield, the traditional curtain-raiser between the Eredivisie champions and KNVB Cup winners. Although PSV were reduced to ten men early in the match, AZ’s youthful side looked energetic, well organised and ready for the challenges ahead.

The key question is whether Leeroy Echteld’s squad possesses the depth required to sustain a title challenge throughout the season while also balancing the demands of UEFA Europa League football. If they do, AZ may emerge as far more than just outsiders in the race for the Eredivisie crown.

Outsiders

Twente rank fifth in the title projections, with their 8.1% chance of winning the Eredivisie just behind AZ (8.6%). Their only previous Eredivisie title came 16 years ago in 2009-10, when they pipped Ajax by a single point.

NEC were last season’s surprise team, eventually finishing third and making it into the UEFA Champions League qualification rounds. After a 0-0 draw with Olympiacos in the first leg of their third-round qualifier, they are now potentially three games away from a ground-breaking appearance in the 2026-27 league phase.

Dick Schreuder’s side also reached the final of the KNVB Cup last season, but disappointingly suffered a heavy 5-1 defeat to AZ, meaning that they finished as the competition runners-up for the sixth time and missed out on their first major honour.

NEC are given a 4.8% chance of a Eredivisie title win this time around, which is just above Utrecht (3.9%), Heerenveen (1.5%) and Groningen (1.1%).

Eredivisie Relegation Battle

Heracles Almelo, NAC Breda and FC Volendam were relegated from the Eredivisie at the end of the 2025-26 season, making way for three new clubs.

Eerste Divisie champions ADO Den Haag return to the top-flight, alongside runners-up SC Cambuur and play-off winners Willem II.

Of those promoted sides, Cambuur and Willem II appear to face the toughest challenge in securing survival. The Opta supercomputer predicts Cambuur to finish in the bottom two in 32% of its simulations, while Willem II are relegated in almost 31%. Can either club defy the odds, or will the familiar last-in, first-out principle once again prove decisive?

ADO Den Haag are rated as the promoted side with the best chance of avoiding immediate relegation. Their probability of finishing 17th or 18th stands at 24%, notably lower than those of Cambuur and Willem II.

Beyond the newcomers, PEC Zwolle (22%) and Fortuna Sittard (21%) are also expected to be heavily involved in the battle for survival.

Fortuna, the southernmost club in the Eredivisie, are preparing for their ninth consecutive season in the top-flight, a streak matched or surpassed by only six current Eredivisie clubs. However, the Limburg side have lost leading scorer Kaj Sierhuis, who netted 12 league goals in 2025-26 before completing a move to N.E.C. Nijmegen.

Meanwhile, the future of Mohamed Ihattaren remains uncertain. The creative midfielder contributed 10 assists and a further six league goals last season, and his potential departure would leave another significant gap in Fortuna’s squad. Will supporters in Sittard be growing increasingly concerned ahead of the new campaign?

Interestingly, the Opta supercomputer takes a different view from many pundits when it comes to Telstar’s prospects.

Following a remarkable return to the Eredivisie after a 47-year absence, the White Lions exceeded expectations by finishing 14th last season, thanks in large part to their energetic, fearless style of play.

That said, their campaign ended with a remarkable surge, as they collected 10 points from their final four league matches to avoid the relegation zone. Whether that late-season momentum is sustainable under a new manager remains to be seen.

Even so, the Opta supercomputer predicts Telstar to finish 11th in 2026-27. Can they once again outperform expectations and prove the pundits wrong?

How Does the Opta Supercomputer Model Work?

• Opta’s League Prediction model estimates the likelihood of teams finishing in each position in the competition. We can therefore see how successful a team’s season is likely to be, whether it’s their relegation or title chances.

• The model estimates the probability of each match outcome (win, draw or loss) by using betting market odds and Opta Power Rankings. The odds and rankings are based on historical and recent team performances.

• The model considers the strength of opponents by using these match outcome probabilities and simulates the remaining fixtures in the competition thousands of times. By analysing the outcome of each of these simulations, the model can see how often teams finished in each league position to create our final predictions.

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