Esports prediction markets hit $204 million during Dota 2 championship

While the prize pool for triumphant Dota 2 gamers has been in steep decline in recent years, esports bettors scooped up an unprecedented $204 million in prediction market payouts for the 2026 championship.

As much as 90% of the total amount was concentrated on Polymarket, while Kalshi – despite boasting nearly the identical number of trades at 586,845 against 622,475 – accounted for only 10%, per the latest research conducted by Predictbook.

The data also showed that the average Polymarket trade was as large as $263.78 and that those on Kalshi were significantly smaller at $31.04. Still, there was a substantial imbalance among the bettors.

Top Dota 2 trader saw 600% gains

Specifically, just 1,640 out of 21,936 Polymarket wallets were responsible for the vast majority of the deposits, while the typical account from the numerically larger group put only $19.98 on the line.

Examining individual dates and trades, the highest volume was recorded on August 21 – two days before the tournament’s end – and amounted to $27,450,824. One day before, the number stood at $23,589,766, and the finals drove $21,064,043.

Meanwhile, the most successful trader among those who wagered more than $10,000 saw a $25,735 bet split between five games turn into $154,307 for a 600% gain. 

Additionally, multiple other addresses saw stellar returns, and the 10 biggest winners made a total of $5.3 million. The 10 biggest losers lost a combined $2.4 million.

Top 10 profits and losses on prediction markets during the Dota 2 2026 championship. Source: Predictbook

Perhaps surprisingly, more prediction market traders made money than lost on the Dota 2 championship, with 11,450 ending up in profit and 10,195 at a loss. 

Still, despite what the totals and the outliers might suggest, the median winner made $4.84, and the median loser lost a significantly higher $23.15, per the data shared by Predictbook. 

Finally, out of the 21,936 Polymarket wallets examined, only 734 made more than $1,000 and 906 lost more than $1,000, making the platforms themselves the biggest winners, as they, combined, took $2.76 million in fees.

Kalshi and Polymarket fees versus the winnings of the triumphant Dota 2 team. Source: Predictbook

Lastly, the 16 teams actually competing in the annual tournament – held in Shanghai and organized by the video game industry titan Valve – shared a prize pool of just $3.3 million.

These relatively low winnings are notable since the popularity of the esport has hardly dwindled in recent years. The International 2026 grand final drew 1.79 million peak viewers – the third-highest in the history of Dota 2.

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