EU faces balancing act over Turkey ties

The European Union and Turkey's relationship status has long been listed under the "it's complicated" category. Ankara remains — on paper at least — a candidate for EU membership, and NATO allies, most EU states and Turkey have pledged to protect each other in case of attack.

In recent years, the EU has accused President Erdogan of overseeing an erosion of democracy and prompting a "standstill" in Turkey's membership bid, but this week Brussels seems to be toning down its criticism of what Amnesty calls "unnecessary and indiscriminate force by security forces against peaceful demonstrators" in Turkey after Erdogan's key political rival was arrested on corruption charges.

And that's likely because for Europe, the context has become more complicated than ever.

Europe treads carefully

While Turkey's president says the widespread protests — which included clashes with police — are a "movement of violence," France's foreign ministry has branded the incarceration of Istanbul mayor Ekrem Imamoglu and "numerous others" as "serious attacks on democracy."

Germany's outgoing top diplomat, meanwhile, warned that "political opponents don't belong in jails or court."

But in Brussels, the EU's centralized executive is choosing its words carefully.

"The arrest of the mayor Ekrem Imamoglu and the protesters give rise to questions regarding Turkey's adherence to its long established democratic tradition," European Commission spokesperson Guillaume Mercier told reporters on Monday. "Turkey must uphold democratic values," he added.

Asked if the bloc would cancel or delay planned political partnership talks with Turkish officials next month, Mercier refused to speculate.

"There's something of a contrast between the gravity of what's going on in Turkey and the levity of European reactions," Jean Marcou, a professor specialized in EU-Turkey ties at Sciences Po Grenoble, told DW.

"European partners took time to respond," the former French diplomat added.

More than a thousand people have been arrested amid widespread protests across TurkeyImage: Angelos Tzortzinis/AFP

Turkey’s military might in EU eyeline

Amanda Paul, a senior analyst with the European Policy Centre, thinks there's a clear reason for that.

"This is probably a reflection of the new geopolitical situation we're all living in," she told DW.

The arrival of Donald Trump in the White House has prompted a radical rethink of European defense as governments race to rely less on the US and envisage a future without Washington's protection.

Turkey's army is second only to the US in the NATO defensive alliance, and Paul says the country's geographic position facing Ukraine and Russia across the Black Sea and straddling the European and Asian continents gives it a "geopolitical weight that many other countries in the region or even the world don't have."

The EU may also be eyeing Turkey's booming arms industry as it seeks more and alternative suppliers for its own national militaries.

"Turkey's defense industry actually has a lot to offer the EU at a time when there are significant shortages of weapons," Paul explained.

Erdogan: international strength and domestic fragility?

Before hitting global headlines over allegations of trying to silence his biggest political rival, Turkish President Erdogan had spent much of 2025 on something of a diplomatic high.

Ankara has been at the heart of a so-called "coalition of the willing" — a group of European states brainstorming ways to shore up an eventual peace deal in Ukraine in a bid to gain some leverage and influence over the US drive to put a swift end to Russia's war. Just last week, top EU brass called Erdogan to debrief him on their own internal talks on defense.

And that's not all. Paul says Turkey "has become a major foreign policy actor in its neighborhood and beyond, whether that's in Syria, the South Caucasus or Central Asia."

"He [Erdogan] feels that he's almost an indispensable partner to Europe at the moment. That has given him more confidence to take these steps domestically," she added.

Erdogan has dismissed accusations that the arrest of his Imamoglu is politically motivated.

The Turkish president has been central to European talks on Ukraine's future and continental securityImage: Turkish Presidency/Murat Cetinmuhurdar/Anadolu/picture alliance

Democracies elsewhere under pressure

Researcher Jean Mercou thinks the Turkish leader is also paying close attention to global trends

"Why is he doing this? Because the international climate lends itself to it, with multiple attacks on democracy, including in major western democracies, including the US."

Erdogan's friendly ties with Trump may also be playing on the EU's mind as the bloc plots its next move.

"There's a sort of competition going on between Europe and the USA to charm Turkey. I think the Europeans probably don't want to lose Turkey, and I think that Erdogan knows this very well," Mercou added.

Elected lawmakers will likely call on EU governments to take a tougher line on alleged democratic backsliding in TurkeyImage: Alexandros Avramidis/REUTERS

Values versus critical interests

But pressure on Turkey's European partners to respond with greater criticism will mount too. Mayors from across the continent are meeting in Strasbourg on Thursday and are expected to slam a "relentless campaign of judicial harassment" against their Istanbul counterpart.

Elected EU parliamentarians will also likely call for tougher measures from the EU and national governments.

"What will happen if there's much harsher repression [in Turkey]? Probably it will force the Europeans to be more vocal," Mercou explained.

"But ultimately," he added, "they'll be caught between their values and their strategic interests."

Edited by: Jess Smee