By The Guardian (Sports) | Created at 2024-09-25 07:43:26 | Updated at 2024-09-30 07:35:46
5 days ago
The Champions League was back with a bang last week; now it’s the turn of the Europa League, with Europe’s second-tier competition taking centre stage with a packed schedule of opening fixtures across Wednesday and Thursday. But much like with the Champions League, this isn’t quite the same Europa League we’ve seen before.
The tournament has increased from 32 to 36 teams and the format is significantly different, mirroring the new-look Champions League. The previous group stage of four teams in eight groups is no more, replaced by a league phase in which all clubs will play eight matches – two more than before – and are ranked in a single 36-team table.
Another crucial change is that the 36 teams you see in the competition on matchday one are the only clubs who’ll compete in the 2024-25 edition. That’s right, there’s no more safety net for Champions League sides, meaning Atalanta won’t be able to defend their crown.
Of course, there’s a knock-on effect; it also means there’s no Conference League to fall back on for those who don’t reach the knockouts. There’ll be plenty who feel these changes help maintain the integrity of the Europa League and Conference League. But back to the table.
Finishing in the top eight ensures immediate qualification for the last 16, while the teams between ninth and 24th will enter the playoff round for the right to join the eight best sides in the knockouts. The losers of those playoffs bow out of European competition entirely for the rest of the season, following those who finish 25th and lower. While the absence of teams dropping down from the Champions League might, in the eyes of some, diminish the attractiveness of the Europa League knockouts, it’s worth bearing in mind that there are plenty of big clubs involved.
There will be those who attract most eyes, however. Manchester United stick out like a sore thumb and their domestic rivals Tottenham are something of a giant in this company. European staples Ajax are present, while Athletic Club and Real Sociedad will be flying the Basque flag as they hope to carry on the tradition of La Liga clubs (well, mostly Sevilla) dominating this competition. There are a pair of bitter rivals representing Serie A in the shape of Roma and Lazio; the 2022 champions, Eintracht Frankfurt, and Hoffenheim will represent the Bundesliga; Lyon and Nice qualified from Ligue 1.
But who is going to go all the way and lift the trophy at San Mamés next year? The Opta supercomputer puts its (robotic) neck on the line. It has simulated the 2024-25 competition 10,000 times and confirmed its pre-tournament percentages. So, without further ado, let’s run through its Europa League predictions.
Favourites
This might surprise some, but Porto (17.8%) have been installed as favourites to win the Europa League 2024-25 by the Opta supercomputer.
Porto do have an affinity for this competition, having won it with José Mourinho in 2003 (when it was the Uefa Cup) and in 2011 under André Villas-Boas, who is now their president. They are the only Portuguese club to win the Uefa Cup/Europa League, while just five teams across the continent have won it more often.
Now under the guidance of Vítor Bruno, assistant to Sérgio Conceição during his seven years in charge, Porto are perhaps a little more of an unknown quantity this season. But they are regulars in European competition and have plenty of talent at their disposal.
Given their status as favourites according to the supercomputer, they’re also unsurprisingly projected to be the likeliest to reach the last 16, doing so in a massive 87.6% of the simulations.
That can probably be partly explained by the fact they have played in the knockouts of one of the European competitions in each of the past 18 seasons, last failing in 2005-06 when they finished bottom of a Champions League group that also included Inter, Rangers and Artmedia Bratislava. Porto are deemed to have comfortably the greatest chance of progressing through the knockout rounds, and they reached the final in over a quarter of the sims (26%).
Second favourites behind Porto are Athletic Club of Bilbao, who lifted the trophy in 10.9% of the 10,000 pre-tournament simulations by the Opta supercomputer. Athletic haven’t won this competition before, despite reaching the final in 1977 and 2012. They qualified this season after finishing fifth in La Liga, and with the vastly experienced Ernesto Valverde in charge, they’ll be a match for anyone. They are seen more as the best of the chasing pack as opposed to direct rivals to Porto according to the projection model, though, making it to the final – in their home stadium – in 19.8% of the predictions.
It’s worth noting that they haven’t been European regulars for a while, though; this is their first season in any of the three Uefa competitions since 2017-18, when they reached the last 16 of the Europa League. They’ve got to at least the quarter-finals just twice in Europe since the turn of the century.
Ranked as third favourites are, rather remarkably, Slavia Prague. They won their first European trophy ever in 9.6% of the 10,000 season simulations. Slavia are regulars in recent times on this stage, having reached at least the group stage of one of the European competitions in every season since 2017-18 – before that, their last participation had been in 2009-10.
Their figures are likely helped by the fact they won a Europa League group last season that also included Roma, while they reached the Conference League quarter-finals in 2021-22. They progressed to the last 16 in 79.9% of the simulations and even got to the semi-finals (31.1%) more often than all but Porto and Athletic. Clearly, the supercomputer sees Slavia as ones to watch.
Best of the rest
Tottenham are also considered among the biggest threats in the competition. Ange Postecoglou’s side go all the way in 8.6% of the supercomputer’s simulations, while they’re deemed more likely than Slavia to reach the last 16 (81.0%). They are fancied for a deep run into the tournament despite an unremarkable record in European knockout ties in recent years.
While they did reach the final of the 2018-19 Champions League, that’s their only instance of getting beyond the last 16 in any European competition since reaching the 2012-13 Europa League quarter-finals. However, when it comes to the quality available to Postecoglou, Spurs will likely feel confident of reaching the latter stages if such a target is prioritised.
Roma are next, winning their second European trophy in three years in 8.2% of the projections. Nevertheless, the Giallorossi haven’t enjoyed a great start to the season domestically, with their run of no wins in their first four matches costing their head coach, Daniele De Rossi, his job. Ivan Juric is the man at the helm now and did win his first match in charge at the weekend, a 3-0 victory over Udinese.
They’ve reached at least the last four of the Europa League in the past two seasons, finishing as runners-up in 2022-23. They also made it to the semis in 2020-21 and won the Conference League the season after that. It’s a track record that shouldn’t be dismissed.
Manchester United are, perhaps surprisingly, rated as sixth favourites to win the trophy (7.1%). In terms of pure talent, they arguably have the strongest squad of all teams in the competition – and almost certainly the most expensive. But Erik ten Hag’s side can be quite difficult to read because of how they tend to blow hot and cold.
They do have a reasonably good record in the Europa League, though. They were eliminated in the last 16 during their first participation (after dropping from the Champions League) in 2011-12, but since then, they’ve reached the last 16 once, quarter-finals once, semi-finals once, been runners-up and lifted the trophy in their five appearances.
Outsiders
There are six other teams that are deemed to have at least a 3% chance of winning the 2024-25 Europa League.
Lazio are competing in European competition for an eighth successive season and win their first major continental trophy since the 1999 Cup Winners’ Cup in 6.1% of the projections.
Mourinho could become the first manager to win the competition with three different clubs if he takes Fenerbahce all the way. The Portuguese coach has already won it with Porto and Manchester United, and he takes his current side to the trophy in 3.1% of the supercomputer’s predictions. They are deemed to be among the strongest sides in the tournament – though their rivals Galatasaray (5.2%) are rated as having a better chance of going all the way.
Real Sociedad (3.6%), Frankfurt (3.6%) and Nice (3.1%) are the other teams given a success probability of 3% or more in the Europa League this term.
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This is an edited extract of an article by Opta Analyst
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