Expert: With the fall of Assad, what is the future for Iran’s ayatollahs?

CV NEWS FEED // The recent collapse of the Assad regime in Syria has intensified scrutiny on Iran’s Islamic Republic, raising questions about its future stability. Analysts suggest that Tehran, weakened domestically and internationally, may face increasing challenges to its authority. 

AsiaNews reported that, according to Professor Pejman Abdolmohammadi, a Middle East expert at the University of Trento, the fall of Syria’s Assad regime signals a shift in regional dynamics, particularly affecting the Iranian “Axis of Resistance.”

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This network of alliances, comprising groups like Hamas, Hezbollah, and pro-Shiite militias, has been central to Iran’s regional strategy. Abdolmohammadi noted that “three Hs have fallen” — Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Syrian militias — and speculated that the Houthis in Yemen and Iraq’s Hashd al-Sha’abi militias may be next. These developments align with a broader paradigm shift initiated during Donald Trump’s presidency, focusing on countering political Islam and Iranian influence.

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According to Abdolmohammadi, the paradigm shift began with the U.S. withdrawal from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal and continued with actions such as the 2020 assassination of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani. These measures, coupled with Israel’s targeted operations against Iranian proxies, have exposed vulnerabilities within Tehran’s regional strategy. Abdolmohammadi highlighted that the Biden administration’s more conciliatory approach slowed this trend but did not reverse Iran’s weakening position.

Tehran’s response has been one of defiance and survival. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei dismissed Syria’s loss as temporary, asserting that “the territories that have been seized in Syria will be liberated by the brave Syrian youth.” Despite such rhetoric, Iran has engaged in negotiations, including talks in Geneva, seeking to revive the nuclear deal and alleviate international pressure.

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Domestically, the Islamic Republic faces mounting dissent. The year-long “Woman, Life, Freedom” protests, fueled by calls for secular governance and individual freedoms, have highlighted the gap between Iran’s ruling elite and its increasingly secular society. Abdolmohammadi observed that at least 80% of Iranian society is now strongly secular, a cultural shift that contrasts sharply with the regime’s Islamist ideology. While these protests were forcibly suppressed, Abdolmohammadi argued they signal a growing demand for systemic change.

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Externally, Iran’s allies are shrinking. Israel’s aggressive targeting of Iranian proxies and the alignment of Sunni Arab nations with anti-Iranian interests have further isolated Tehran. Abdolmohammadi pointed out a paradoxical convergence of interests among Israeli leaders, parts of Iranian society, and Sunni Arab states, all favoring a weakened Islamic Republic.

China remains one of Iran’s few steadfast supporters, driven by its energy needs and strategic interests in a chaotic Middle East that ensures cheap resources. Abdolmohammadi argued that a stable and democratic Iran would not align with Beijing’s objectives, as it would disrupt China’s advantageous energy arrangements and market dynamics.

Looking ahead, the continuation of this new paradigm could spell further destabilization for Iran. Abdolmohammadi suggested that a secular and democratic Iran is essential for a new Middle East but acknowledged that such a transformation would face resistance from regional and global actors invested in the status quo.

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