By Opta Analyst | Created at 2026-07-18 17:28:13 | Updated at 2026-08-02 23:34:56
3 weeks ago
We’re down to the final four of the 2026 World Cup. Which of France, Spain, England and Argentina are likeliest to go all the way, though? We ask the Opta supercomputer.
We are 100 games into the 2026 World Cup. It has been a lot of fixtures, a lot of football, and a lot of fun, but we’re now closing in on the end of the tournament.
The quarter-finals were all quite closely contested. France eventually had too much for Morocco; Spain relied on super-sub Mikel Merino to send them through against Belgium with another later winner; Jude Bellingham was the hero for England against Norway; and Argentina finally broke down resolute 10-man Switzerland.
We don’t want to brag (which is absolutely something you say before bragging) but the Opta supercomputer correctly called the final four. The top four favourites to win the World Cup at the start of the tournament have all made it to the semi-finals.
So, with that in mind, we have of course asked the supercomputer for its latest predictions on who will ultimately win the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
Between them, Spain, France and Argentina have won three of the last four men’s World Cups, while England are looking to end ’60 years of hurt’, having not lifted the famous trophy since 1966.
This is only the third time all four semi-finalists at a FIFA World Cup are former winners of the competition, after 1970 and 1990.
And from here, the Opta supercomputer believes the likeliest winners of the 2026 edition are France.
Didier Deschamps’ side have been impressive in North America, with Kylian Mbappé leading from the front. His eight goals is the joint most at this World Cup along with Lionel Messi, while Ousmane Dembélé (5) has also been chipping in. Both found the net against Morocco to send Les Bleus into the semi-finals.
In fact, France became only the second side in the last 50 years to have two players score 5+ goals at the same FIFA World Cup, after Brazil in 2002 (Ronaldo 8, Rivaldo 5), though England have since done the same (Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham, both 6).
France earned their 20th men’s World Cup victory under Deschamps with their 2-0 win over the Atlas Lions, making him the first manager to oversee that many wins at the finals. It was his 25th World Cup match in charge overall, equalling Helmut Schön’s record, so the semi-final against Spain will see him break the record in what is his last tournament before stepping down.
In the supercomputer’s latest 25,000 simulations of the remainder of the World Cup, France made it past Spain to reach a third consecutive final 57.7% of the time, while they won the whole thing in 34.0% of sims.
It promises to be a titanic tussle with Spain, though, who have arguably been the second-most impressive side at this World Cup.
Luis de la Fuente’s men finally conceded a first goal at this World Cup in their quarter-final against Belgium, with Charles De Ketelaere equalising after Fabián Ruiz had put La Roja in front. De Ketelaere’s header ended a run of 649 minutes without conceding a goal at the FIFA World Cup for Spain.
However, just as he did in the last 16 against Portugal, Merino came off the bench to score a late winner and send Spain through.
This will be just their second ever World Cup semi-final, after 2010, when they went on to win the tournament in South Africa.
France may be favourites to win, but Spain have set the outright longest unbeaten run in their history, avoiding defeat in each of their last 36 matches since a 1-0 friendly loss to Colombia in March 2024 (W27 D9).
Spain have a 42.3% chance of making it to the final, but interestingly, they are still second favourites to win the tournament (23.4%), so the supercomputer does believe it is likelier that the World Cup will be won by the victors of Tuesday’s semi-final in Dallas.
That’s not to say the other on Wednesday in Atlanta is just for the right to lose in the final, though.
England have not exactly been convincing throughout this World Cup, but arguably, that makes them even more dangerous. Even manager Thomas Tuchel didn’t think they played well in their comeback win over Norway, but they did enough to get through.
Or rather, Bellingham did enough for them to get through.
Andreas Schjelderup put Norway in front in Miami with what was, let’s face it, a mis-hit cross, but Bellingham equalised before half-time with a typically excellent run into the box and finish. The Real Madrid star then reacted quickest to tap in following Ørjan Nyland spilling Morgan Rogers’ shot from distance in extra-time to win it.
Following up his brace against Mexico in the last 16 with another against Norway, Bellingham became the first player to score 2+ goals in consecutive knockout appearances in the same FIFA World Cup since Diego Maradona in 1986 (two vs England, two vs Belgium).
It carried on the Three Lions’ impressive recent form at major tournaments. They have progressed to the semi-finals in four major tournaments (World Cup/European Championships) since 2018, as many as they had reached in their history prior to the 2018 World Cup (4).
Will football finally be ‘coming home’, though? The Opta supercomputer has England as third favourites to win the World Cup (21.9%), but they are at least slight favourites to reach their first World Cup final since they won it in 1966 (50.9%).
That is only a slight advantage over their old foe, though, with defending champions Argentina awaiting in the semi-finals.
Messi was finally blunted in front of goal at this World Cup, with Switzerland being the first opponent to stop the 39-year-old from scoring at the tournament, but that didn’t stop Argentina entirely.
It was Messi’s corner that was headed in by Alexis Mac Allister to put Lionel Scaloni’s men in front, though Dan Ndoye equalised in the second half to take the game to extra-time.
Unfortunately for the Swiss, they had to navigate extra-time with 10 men after Breel Embolo was sent off when a VAR check deemed him to have dived, bringing the striker a second yellow card. It was a good defensive effort until Julián Alvarez bent in a sublime goal from the edge of the box to nudge Argentina back in front.
Lautaro Martínez added a third late on to seal things, and set up Argentina and England’s first World Cup meeting since 2002.
It was Argentina’s record 13th extra-time match at the FIFA World Cup, and they have gone on to win (including penalty shootout wins) 11 of those.
Despite being the defending champions, Argentina are least fancied to win the 2026 World Cup of the four remaining sides (20.6%), but it is more or less a coin toss as to whether they make it past England, doing so in 49.1% of simulations.
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