By Opta Analyst | Created at 2026-09-07 11:32:10 | Updated at 2026-09-18 23:06:54
1 week ago
We’re back with our weekly round-up of the Premier League action through a set of hasty conclusions that we’ve come to based on a single round of matches.
Every week here on Opta Analyst, we take a break from our usual deep-dive mindset, take the opportunity not to bother with a large dataset, and arrive at a bunch of snap judgements based on just a single round of Premier League matches.
Sometimes, these are quickly proved to be little more than exactly what we call them: knee-jerk reactions.
But even small sample sizes can carry some weight from time to time, and anyway, sometimes it’s fun to jump to conclusions slightly too quickly.
Read on to see what we’re concluding from the 10 games this weekend.
Chelsea Aren’t Ready for a Title Challenge
Chelsea have made a strong start to life under Xabi Alonso, and after two games, it was maybe slightly prematurely decided that their sharp, exciting and newly formed front three could fire them into an unlikely title race.
With no European football to focus on, too, it was thought that they would be able to overcome their defensive deficiencies with Cole Palmer, Morgan Rogers and João Pedro overpowering their opposition, just as they had done in their first two games.
And after Rogers put them 1-0 up just 77 seconds into Sunday’s trip to reigning champions Arsenal, there was only more reason to believe they could challenge.
The goal made Chelsea the first team in Premier League history to score inside the opening five minutes in each of their first three games of the season, but just like in their first two games, they went on to concede at least twice. Only this time, Arsenal shut up shop and saw out what was actually a fairly convincing win, even if they only won by a single goal.
This was the first real test of Alonso’s Chelsea, and they were given a lesson by the best team in the country, managing just 0.39 xG over the 90 minutes. Arsenal showed up Chelsea’s flaws and were more than deserving winners. Chelsea now know, if they didn’t before, that they still have a lot of work to do to catch up.
Man City Won’t Win the Title
With three wins from three games, Manchester City won’t have too many complaints about the start they’ve made to 2026-27. A win and a first clean sheet of the season against Coventry on Saturday afternoon extended their 100% record in the league under new manager Enzo Maresca.
But against a promoted side, and the only Premier League team yet to score a goal or take a point from three games, City actually rode their luck far too much for a title hopeful.
Coventry aren’t a bad side at all, but the ease with which they were swatted aside by Arsenal on the opening day of the season was a stark contrast to this game.
Taiwo Awoniyi should have scored when put clean through in the first half but missed the target; Gianluigi Donnarumma very, very nearly conceded a bizarre own goal, and later, if Ellis Simms had placed his shot an inch either side of Donnarumma’s nose, he would have equalised.
City had the better chances, winning on expected goals 2.12 to 1.37, but they were far from convincing in defence. Better teams will punish them if they play like this.
Isak Is About to Explode
Alexander Isak had a tough first season after his record-breaking move to Liverpool, but he is already starting to repay that monster fee this term.
His brace against Ipswich Town on Friday – scored after just nine minutes – was the earliest a Liverpool player had scored twice in a Premier League game since Maxi Rodríguez in May 2011 v Fulham (seventh minute). It was also the first time he had scored twice in a match in any competition for the Reds.
Players are rarely afforded any patience in football, particularly after a big-money transfer, and Isak, who also missed a chunk of last season with a broken leg, was no different. Rival fans rejoiced in watching him toil.
But we all know how good he can be, and the early evidence this season is that he could get back to his best. He is getting into more dangerous positions, with the average xG of his shots up from 0.16 per shot to 0.25. And, as a result, he has already matched his league goal total from 2025-26.
He also looks to have formed an effective partnership with Cody Gakpo, so he will have been pleased the Netherlands international did not leave this summer, having been heavily linked with a move away. Both of Isak’s goals on Friday were assisted by Gakpo – the earliest a player has assisted two goals for the same player in a Premier League match since April 1998 (Leicester’s Steve Guppy for teammate Emile Heskey – 8th minute vs Derby).
After such a disappointing 2025-26, few expect Liverpool to challenge this season, but if Isak plays to anything like his potential, then they’ll always have a chance.
Tyrick Mitchell Deserves An(other) England Chance
In front of England manager Thomas Tuchel, Crystal Palace left-back Tyrick Mitchell scored the first brace of his professional career, reminding onlookers of his qualities in a position where England’s options are relatively limited.
Mitchell very rarely grabs the headlines. This was the first time he had been on the scoresheet in the Premier League in 36 games, and he already has more goals this season than he did in the last two combined.
But he remains a consistent player with bags of talent, good work ethic, and plenty of attacking potential.
He does actually have two England caps to his name, but they both came way back in 2022, and while he might not be quite as effective a defender as Tuchel tends to prefer, he is a natural option on the side that England lacked at the World Cup when Nico O’Reilly was absent.
His second goal was about as ugly as they come, a lucky ricochet that bounced fortunately and somehow ended up in the net, and it was in fact another potential – though even less likely – England left-back who scored the winner, with the returning Ben Chilwell firing in late on.
But Mitchell’s brace put him deservedly back in the spotlight, and might just have caught Tuchel’s attention.
Everton’s Squad Is Too Thin
Everton had a minor disaster at the end of the transfer window as they sold Beto to Fiorentina and failed to replace him, leaving them very short of options up front. The inconsistent Thierno Barry is now their only senior striker.
And there are other issues in their squad, not least at right-back, where they don’t really have any natural option. Jake O’Brien is a centre-back who can play there and did so for much of last season, while central midfielder Merlin Röhl has been playing there this term, and their other options are more midfielders, in James Garner and Ainsley Maitland-Niles.
Garner had just been moved to right-back against Manchester United on Sunday afternoon when he went down with an injury, and that led to Maitland-Niles coming on, which just so happened to be very convenient indeed, because it was his 95th-minute screamer that earned Everton a point.
But we’re only three games into the season and Everton’s squad is already looking thin. It’s no coincidence that they used only three of a possible five substitutions on Sunday, and one of them was forced by injury.
It could be a long few months for David Moyes’ lightweight-looking squad.
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