Five Knee-Jerk Reactions to the Premier League Weekend

We’re back with our weekly dose of hastily made conclusions based on one weekend of Premier League fixtures. Here’s what we made of Matchday 16.

Chelsea Are Genuine Title Contenders

Of the four teams the Opta supercomputer deems to have more than a 0.01% chance of winning the Premier League title this season, Chelsea were the only ones to win this weekend. Their title hopes are now at a season-high 5.5%.

They are still way, way off Liverpool (82.0%) in terms of what the supercomputer thinks, but they have cut the gap in points at the top of the table to two, and their current momentum gives them real hope.

Enzo Maresca’s team are still flawed. They have disciplinary issues – see Marc Cucurella’s sending off after the full-time whistle in Sunday’s win over Brentford – and they probably need to tighten up at the back to become a truly elite team, but this weekend showed that the other contenders have real problems, too.

After Arsenal’s goalless draw with Everton on Saturday, Mikel Arteta’s team have now failed to score from open play in three consecutive Premier League games, while Liverpool, who drew with Fulham, have failed to win back-to-back matches having won 11 of their first 13 Premier League games of the season.

Chelsea are now on the longest winning streak (five games) that any team has managed in the top flight this season, and if they can keep plodding along like they are, there’s no reason they can’t challenge for the title.

Palace Are Going to Finish Higher Than Brighton

Before their derby on Sunday kicked off, Crystal Palace were 17th in the Premier League, one point clear of the relegation zone. Brighton were seventh and very much looking up the table at the four-point gap to the top four, rather than over their shoulders.

Then, Palace ran out 3-1 winners at the Amex, beating their rivals by more than one goal in a league match for the first time since December 2012, and appearing far more like the team who should be battling it out in the top half. The visitors fully deserved their win, creating the better chances and remaining impressively resolute at the back.

On the rare occasions Brighton broke them down, Dean Henderson was in inspired form in goal, as he has been all season. Only Leicester’s Mads Hermansen has prevented more goals with his saves in the Premier League this season than Henderson, whose stops have denied almost five more goals being conceded based on the quality of the shots he has faced.

There’s now eight points separating Palace and Brighton. Palace are unbeaten in five; Brighton haven’t won in four. The two sides are on opposite trajectories, and it would be no surprise to see Palace close the gap further in the remaining weeks of 2024. By the end of the season, they could even be above their rivals.

Pep Can’t Fix City

Without Rodri, Manchester City just aren’t going to turn this season around. They are as good as out of the title race, hanging on by a thread in the Champions League and counting down the days until the January transfer window opens.

But even if they make a massive signing in central midfield to replace Rodri, they have plenty of other problems, not least a lack of goals from any of their attacking midfielders. After his goal against Manchester United on Sunday, centre-back Josko Gvardiol is now their second-highest scorer in Premier League games, and he’s only on four goals. John Stones is their fourth-highest scorer, and he’s only had two shots all season.

The defence is porous and error-prone, the attack is misfiring, and the midfield is far too easy to play through. United really weren’t great at all in Sunday’s derby, but they had Amad Diallo putting in his best performance of the season and that was essentially enough to beat the reigning champions, which is a pretty damning thing to be able to say.

It will take more than signing a Rodri replacement to fix these problems and, on recent evidence, Pep Guardiola doesn’t appear to have the solutions.

Southampton Are More Likely to Break Derby’s Record Than Stay Up

Southampton sacked their manager Russell Martin after their latest capitulation, as they lost 5-0 to Tottenham on Sunday night, going five goals down before half-time. Fans streamed out of the ground, the players looked lost and Martin had no answer.

Southampton have picked up just five points from their first 16 Premier League matches this season (W1 D2 L13), with Sheffield United in 2020-21 the only team to have picked up fewer points at this stage of the campaign in Premier League history (two points).

It was just so easy for Spurs at St Mary’s, and they might have challenged the Premier League record for the biggest ever win had they not taken their foot off the gas. It has scarcely ever been clearer that a managerial change was needed as it was at Southampton.

But they are so far adrift and so low on confidence that there is unlikely to be any saving them. What’s more, they need to become much more solid at the back, but it would be crazy to hire a manager to play a low-block, reactive game given they have a squad built for possession football. So, they surely won’t change tack entirely, but the problem is they just don’t have good enough players to outplay anyone in the Premier League with their current game plan.

They are more likely to post one of the lowest points tallies in Premier League history than turn their season around and survive. They need six more points to equal Derby’s record for the worst ever Premier League campaign. Will they even manage that?

Forest Can Make the Top Four

What a job Nuno Espírito Santo is doing at Nottingham Forest. Saturday’s 2-1 win over Aston Villa followed up a 3-2 win at Old Trafford a week earlier and took Forest back into the top four, overtaking Man City, who would go on to lose the Manchester derby on Sunday.

It’s not the first time Forest have been in the top four this season, but the last time they were, they lost three games in four to fall away, appearing to revert to something more like a position that should be a more realistic aim for the season.

But they have bounced back with two hugely impressive victories over decent teams with top-four aspirations of their own. Coming from behind to beat Villa on Saturday was a massive achievement and one that cemented Forest’s credentials as a genuine force at the top of the table.

With 28 points, this is Forest’s best points return after 16 games in a top-flight campaign since 1994-95 (also 28), when they went on to finish third. Repeating that feat is most likely going to be beyond them, but it would take a hard-nosed person to begrudge the fans starting to dream of a sensational return to Europe’s premier competition, which they of course won twice in the late 1970s. Stranger things have happened…

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