Five Years without the INF Treaty: Lessons and Prospects

By Russia in Global Affairs | Created at 2024-10-29 18:21:54 | Updated at 2024-10-30 05:29:22 4 weeks ago
Truth

[1]      These included West Germany’s 72 Pershing-1a missiles whose warheads were under the control of the U.S. military personnel stationed in the country. In August 1987, Chancellor Helmut Kohl said that if the U.S. and USSR agreed to eliminate regional ground-launched missiles, Germany’s Pershing-1a missiles would also be destroyed, which they were (Sherr, 1988; Armus, 1989, p. 10).

[2]      The Oka’s declared maximum range was 400 km. However, it could be increased through upgrades.

[3]      For the U.S. administration’s reaction to the Soviet statements, see: McCartney, 1989; Schemann, 1989; Larsen, 1991, p. 305.

[4]      West Germany announced its new position on 13 February 1989 during Baker’s talks with German leaders. Chancellor Helmut Kohl and Foreign Minister Hans-Dietrich Genscher stated that “the momentum which now has been achieved in the disarmament process in Europe, in particular by the unilateral steps taken by Gorbachev, should not be stopped by a false signal (to modernize the Lance) that could be interpreted as rearmament instead of disarmament” (Washington Post, 1989). For the development of the FOTL situation after Gorbachev’s December speech and until May 1989, see: Larsen, 1991, pp. 289-314; Asmus, 1989, pp. 28-32.

[5]      For the development of the FOTL situation from the fall of 1989 to the spring of 1990, see: Larsen, 1991, pp. 349-371.

[6]      This view was shared by Chief of the General Staff Marshal Sergey Akhromeyev and First Deputy Foreign Minister Georgy Kornienko, who were directly involved in the INF talks (Akhromeyev and Kornienko, 1992; Kornienko, 2001).

[7]      See e.g., Interfax, 2018.

[8]      See also: Grinevsky, 2004; Kokoshin, 2011, p. 17.

[9]      Apparently, the Soviet Union did not take these statements at face value; according to a Washington Post journalist, diplomats at the Soviet Embassy in Washington “never believed [that the U.S.] would build a missile that lacked the range to reach Moscow from its firing sites in Germany” (Hughes, 2009, p. 12).

[10]    In some documents of the Carter administration, which gave the green light to the development of the Pershing-2 missiles, their range was reported as 1,500 km (Memorandum, 1978a, p. 274; Memorandum, 1978b, p. 376).

[11]    In another speech, Bush said: “the Pershing missile system strengthened deterrence and was concrete evidence of United States resolve. If we had not deployed … [Pershing] there would not be an INF Treaty today” (Harwood, 1993, p. 340).

[12]    Some authors say that the Pioneer missiles were eventually deployed at the Gudym military base in Chukotka (Yegorov, 2017).

[13]    For the modernization of the Chinese missile arsenal, see Cordesman, 2016. Missile range data were borrowed from: Missile Threat, 2024a; Missile Threat, 2024b.

[14]    A good overview of China’s anti-access/area-denial strategy in given in Yevtodieva, 2022.

[15]    At that time, the Air Force even developed its own Thor medium-range missile with characteristics similar to the Army’s Jupiter missile (Armacost, 1969).

[16]    The Air Force’s arguments in this dispute can be found in Gunziger, 2021.

[17]    The expression is attributed to the CDU/CSU’s leaders in the Bundestag, Alfred Dregger and Volker Rühe (Larsen, 1991, p. 250).

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