By Opta Analyst | Created at 2026-08-13 12:18:20 | Updated at 2026-08-13 14:03:14
1 hour ago
The Premier League is the strongest league in world football. This makes it notoriously difficult to predict how players will adapt after a transfer.
Using Solio’s FPL projection model, we assess how seven of this summer’s most intriguing arrivals are expected to translate their previous performances into Fantasy Premier League points in 2026-27.
The Premier League is the strongest division in world football. That isn’t one writer’s opinion – it’s a notion backed up by more than 35 years of data.
Entering the 2026-27 season, 11 Premier League teams rank among the top 20 in the world according to the Opta Power Rankings.
The Opta Power Rankings use a hierarchical Elo-based rating system to measure team strength, generated for men’s football by analysing match results from more than three million games since 1990.
The team ratings, which range from zero to 100, can also be used to calculate an average rating for each league. This is where we can truly see the unrivalled strength of the Premier League.
The average team rating in the Premier League is 92.8; that’s 5.9 rating points higher than the next-best league, Germany’s Bundesliga, which averages 86.9. Remarkably, that gap is almost as large as the gap between those two divisions and England’s second tier, the EFL Championship (81.2).
This is a key factor for Fantasy Premier League managers to consider when studying the data of players joining Premier League teams. If the Premier League is materially stronger, how should we interpret a player’s numbers when they move into it?
Solio’s projections are designed to help you answer that question. Their approach draws on years of cross-league data to model how production translates between leagues, while accounting for the team a player is joining and their competition for goals, chances and set-piece duties within that squad.
Take the contrast in the outputs of Erling Haaland and Viktor Gyökeres, for example, after their transfers to the Premier League. They had scored at similar rates for their previous clubs – 62 goals in 67 appearances for Haaland at Borussia Dortmund and 68 goals in 66 appearances for Gyökeres at Sporting CP.
Haaland’s scoring rate successfully transferred to his new club, with the Norwegian scoring a competition-record 36 goals. Gyökeres last season, meanwhile, found his switch more difficult, scoring 14 goals.
Understanding the reasons behind a player’s success at one club and their potential to succeed at another is necessary when navigating the risk-reward nature of picking new arrivals for your FPL team.
With this in mind, let’s take a look at seven players who have joined Premier League clubs this summer and assess how their performances last season could translate to the upcoming campaign.
Christos Tzolis | Arsenal | MID | £6.5m
What makes Christos Tzolis unique among the seven players listed in this piece is that he already has Premier League experience. The issue is that, having largely come as a 19-year-old for a Norwich City side who finished bottom of the league in 2021-22, it’s almost entirely irrelevant.
Norwich fans are likely a little surprised to see him return to the Premier League with a move to the division’s reigning champions, but his numbers for Club Brugge last season make it clear why Arsenal saw fit to bring him in as a replacement for Leandro Trossard.
Tzolis contributed an eye-watering 17 goals and 23 assists in the Belgian Pro League last season – 16 more goal involvements than any other player.
Ranked as the seventh-best league in the world by the Power Rankings, Belgium’s top flight deserves respect, but rest assured he will not be hitting those same heights in the Premier League.
Although still respectable, Solio project Tzolis’ goals to drop from 0.50 per 90 minutes to 0.28, while his FPL assists are projected to fall from 0.70 to 0.27.
He assisted seven goals from corners last season, and his talent from dead-ball situations was likely a significant part of his appeal to Arsenal. Even so, he faces a battle to displace Declan Rice from left-sided corners, and this is another aspect that currently cuts down his assist projections.
Tzolis has strong competition on the left in the form of Gabriel Martinelli, while Eberechi Eze and Noni Madueke can be regarded as options on that side too, but the 24-year-old could provide good value for Fantasy managers at £6.5m if he can secure a run of starts.
Luka Vuskovic | Brighton & Hove Albion | DEF | £5.0m
Luka Vuskovic has long been tipped as a leading centre-back of the future, but Tottenham Hotspur’s win-now approach under Roberto De Zerbi has seen them cash in on the 19-year-old’s successful Bundesliga loan, selling him to Brighton & Hove Albion for £46 million. Jan Paul van Hecke has moved the other way for a similar fee.
Vuskovic made the Bundesliga Team of the Season in 2025-26 despite being one of the league’s youngest regular starters, doing so for a Hamburg side that finished 13th. The other 10 players in the XI came from Bayern Munich (1st), Borussia Dortmund (2nd) and Stuttgart (4th).
Take one look at his data and it’s easy to see why. Among players with at least 1,500 minutes last season, Vuskovic led all Bundesliga defenders for defensive contributions (DEFCONs) per 90 (12.5), aerial win rate (74.5%) and goals (six).
And to increase his Fantasy credentials, he also won two penalties, scored one himself, and scored from a direct free-kick.
His 12.5 DEFCONS per 90 would have led all Premier League defenders last season, but he’s projected to drop to 9.9, and it’s important to understand why.
Solio model two components separately: a player’s tendency to rack up things like tackles, interceptions and clearances relative to their teammates, and how much total defensive work their new team is likely to generate.
A player’s share of that work is more transferable between clubs than their raw totals, meaning Vuskovic’s Brighton projection is more conservative than his Bundesliga numbers alone might suggest.
Van Hecke and Lewis Dunk, Brighton’s central defensive pairing last season, averaged 8.9 and 7.4 DEFCONs per 90 respectively, so Vuskovic’s projection of 9.9 can be considered strong with that context.
Another question hanging over his viability is his place in Brighton’s team. The Seagulls also spent a decent sum on Pascal Struijk, and it may be that the pair take turns to partner club captain Lewis Dunk.
Gonzalo García | Fulham | FWD | £6.0m
In another sure sign of the Premier League’s strength in depth, Fulham, who are regarded as the fifth most likely team to be relegated this season by bookmakers, have signed Real Madrid academy graduates Gonzalo García and César Palacios, in addition to hiring their manager from last season, Álvaro Arbeloa.
García is no cast-off – he made 39 appearances in all competitions last season, and Fulham only limited the initial fee to €40 million by agreeing to a 30% sell-on clause and future matching rights.
Game time was understandably limited last season, but García scored six goals in the nine La Liga games he started, including a perfect hat-trick against Real Betis in January.
García’s 28.6% shot conversion rate was the best of any Real Madrid player last season, while Kylian Mbappé (0.86) was the only teammate to better his 0.57 goals per 90 minutes.
The standard of service available to García is likely to dip given his change of environment, but Solio still project a respectable 0.44 goals per 90.
That projection is based less on his headline goal tally and more on his underlying numbers such as shot volume and chance quality. Finishing skill is considered too, but sustained chance-getting carries more weight than one season of clinical shooting.
Penalties are another important factor, and Solio are currently modelling García as Fulham’s most likely penalty taker, providing a boost to his projections.
Solio’s current projections suggest García is good value at £6.0m. His projected average points return over the first 10 gameweeks is 4.03, the seventh-highest among the forwards, but second among players listed at his price or below, after Dominic Calvert-Lewin (4.11).
Fulham’s top scorers from last season, Harry Wilson (10 goals) and Raúl Jiménez (9), have both left the club. There’s a goalscoring void to be filled, and García’s there to fill it.
Bazoumana Touré | Newcastle United | MID | £6.0m
Yan Diomandé may have received the lion’s share of the limelight among the Bundesliga’s breakout stars last season, but another young Ivorian also caught the attention of Europe’s finest.
With five goals and nine assists in his first full season in Germany, Bazoumana Touré starred for a surprise-package Hoffenheim side who only narrowly missed out on UEFA Champions League football.
Touré’s exploits earned him a £42 million move to Newcastle, after the club identified him as a long-term replacement for Anthony Gordon following the Englishman’s switch to Barcelona.
When adding his five Fantasy assists – an element that Solio models in their assist projections – Touré’s return rises to 14 assists in 2025-26, equating to 0.54 assists per 90 minutes. Only two Premier League players bettered that rate last season: Bruno Fernandes (0.70) and Rayan Cherki (0.66).
It’s a return that will no doubt raise eyebrows among Fantasy managers, but Solio’s projections suggest Touré is unlikely to replicate that level of output, with his FPL assist rate projected to fall to 0.26 per 90 based on current information.
The difference in attacking environments is another reason for the projection. The Bundesliga is simply a higher-scoring league than the Premier League, with 3.2 goals per game compared to 2.8. Hoffenheim’s 1.9 goals per game last season would have ranked second in the Premier League, behind only Manchester City (2.0), while Newcastle averaged 1.4.
Touré also has to usurp the more experienced Harvey Barnes on Newcastle’s left, and even if he wins that battle, 90-minute outings may prove difficult to come by.
Johan Manzambi | Aston Villa | MID | £6.0m
Touré wasn’t the only bright spark from the Bundesliga that Newcastle had their eyes on this summer. They also tried to sign Johan Manzambi, only for Aston Villa to pip them to his signature.
Manzambi gained wider attention at this summer’s FIFA World Cup, where he contributed three goals and two assists in just 200 minutes of action for Switzerland. But his performances for Freiburg last season meant a host of clubs were already jostling for his signature.
Named the UEFA Europa League’s Young Player of the Season, Manzambi ultimately lost the final to his eventual new employers.
At just 20 years of age, Manzambi’s introduction to the Premier League is likely to be carefully managed, but the sale of Morgan Rogers to Chelsea has opened up a clear route into Unai Emery’s team.
There are some notable similarities between Rogers and Manzambi. Both are comfortable as a No. 8 or No. 10, but interestingly, they tend to perform both roles in a similar fashion, drifting out left to find space to run into from deeper positions.
Their shooting profiles are similar, too. Rogers averaged 2.3 shots per 90 minutes last season, compared with 2.2 for Manzambi, while both found success from distance. Each scored three goals from outside the box, helping them outperform their expected goals totals.
With Manzambi joining a Champions League-level side with a No. 10 role potentially up for grabs, his 2026-27 projections are broadly in line with his 2025-26 output.
There is, however, a notable hit to his DEFCON projection. Freiburg averaged 99.7 midfielder-relevant DEFCON actions per game last season; Villa averaged only 90.9, the lowest figure in the Premier League.
Marco Palestra | Chelsea | DEF | £5.5m
Anyone familiar with Xabi Alonso’s wonderful Bayer Leverkusen team will know that Chelsea’s wing-backs could be a great route to Fantasy points this season.
Álex Grimaldo was directly involved in 32 goals in 67 appearances in the Bundesliga for Alonso’s Leverkusen side, while Jeremie Frimpong contributed to 33 goals in 90 appearances.
Marco Palestra had been set to leave Atalanta to join boyhood club Inter Milan this summer, but he instead became Alonso’s first signing at Chelsea in a £47 million move.
The 21-year-old broke through last season playing as a right wing-back while on loan at Cagliari, where his impressive physicality became immediately evident – his 70 successful dribbles were the most of any defender in Europe’s top 10 leagues last season.
Palestra is two-footed, and this is a talent which could help keep his minutes high in the upcoming campaign. Indeed, he started at left-wing back in Chelsea’s 3-0 friendly win against Milan last week. He had a near-even number of shots with both feet last season: 15 with his left foot and 13 with his right.
A move to a club with better attacking prospects has seen Solio project increases in goals and assists for the Italian this season, up to 0.09 goals per 90 and 0.18 FPL assists. With what we know of Alonso’s use of wing-backs, don’t be surprised to see those projections rise if Palestra finds a defined role within the team.
Mamadou Sangaré | Brentford | MID | £5.5m
Mamadou Sangaré was one of the standout players in Ligue 1 last season, earning himself a place in the competition’s Team of the Year on the back of do-it-all performances for second-place Lens.
The Malian had been linked with a host of clubs around Europe, and Brentford appear to have done considerably well to bring his talents to West London.
His appeal for Fantasy managers is clear: Sangaré averaged a staggering 14.2 DEFCONs per 90 last season, a figure which led all players in Ligue 1 and would have led all players in the Premier League, too.
Solio’s current projection for that figure in the Premier League is 12.5, which would have ranked sixth in the Premier League. It’s not a huge drop – and we’ve seen that midfielders who regularly hit DEFCON can provide good value at this price range – but it suggests that he may be one to monitor early on. Of course, midfielders in FPL need more defensive contributions in total to earn their two bonus FPL points. They have to get 12 defensive contributions, whereas defenders only need 10. Even so, Sangaré’s projection should mean he secures the amount needed.
Lens were the leading team for midfielder-relevant DEFCONS in Ligue 1 last season, while in the Premier League Brentford ranked a still-notable fourth. Sangaré will have to compete for DEFCONs with multiple Brentford midfielders who themselves fare well in this aspect – Vitaly Janelt (11.5), Yehor Yarmolyuk (11.5) and Mikkel Damsgaard (10.5).
Midfielders make up much of their DEFCON numbers from recoveries, and Sangaré led all players in Ligue 1 last season for recoveries per 90, with 8.0. Lens topped Ligue 1 for recoveries last season, and Brentford excelled here too, ranking second in the Premier League.
But the two clubs achieved these ranks differently; Lens’ high-press saw them rank fourth in Ligue 1 for final third recoveries, while Brentford’s less aggressive approach saw them 15th in the Premier League. Solio’s model considers how that change of style may affect a player’s recovery numbers.
It’s important to reiterate that none of Solio’s player projections are set-and-forget – they are based on the latest available information and will update as that information changes.
That’s particularly relevant for new arrivals. While an established Premier League player’s projection is supported by years of evidence, a new signing’s projection can shift quickly as more becomes known about their role.
Solio’s website allows for a “bring your own beliefs” approach to squad planning. If you don’t agree with their projections, you can edit them to figures you deem more likely, and a player’s potential points return in upcoming gameweeks will be altered in your personal plan.
Sangaré has the potential to provide fantastic value in Fantasy Premier League this season, but as with most players listed in this piece, managers will need to balance the potential upside of picking new arrivals with the relative safety of known Premier League quantities.
For every Michu there’s an Andriy Shevchenko.
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