By Opta Analyst | Created at 2024-11-27 13:03:13 | Updated at 2024-11-27 15:34:59
2 hours ago
Mental fragility, individual errors and conceding huge chances. Manchester City’s collapse against Feyenoord summed up their current struggles.
Can a draw ever be more damaging than a defeat? Manchester City certainly put that theory to the test last night, throwing away a three-goal lead against Feyenoord in the UEFA Champions League to draw 3-3. Staggeringly, City are now 15th in the Champions League table and likely to drop even further after Wednesday’s games.
It was the first time they had failed to win a match in which they’d had a three-goal lead since May 1989, when they did so against Bournemouth in the English second tier. For Pep Guardiola, it was a career first. In 941 games prior to last night, he’d never seen his side fail to win a match after leading by three goals.
It was an absolute implosion, and the manner of City’s collapse could be a lot more damaging than merely two points dropped.
City were 3-0 up after 75 minutes and cruising. Erling Haaland had scored twice to become the fastest player to hit 50 Champions League goal involvements, and Ilkay Gündogan had also slammed home a volley.
As the below graphic illustrates, at that point in the game City had attempted 14 shots, landed seven of them on target and generated an xG total of 2.0. Feyenoord had mustered just six attempts worth 0.22 xG. Their total cumulative xG – in red below – was basically a flat line.
And then from the flat line came a lifeline. With the ball bouncing around his midriff, Josko Gvardiol tried to hook a pass back to Ederson in the City goal. He got it terribly wrong, miscuing the ball into the path of Anis Hadj-Moussa, who rounded the goalkeeper to give the visitors a route back into the game.
Guardiola’s response to that first goal said it all. Despite it appearing a mere consolation strike for Feyenoord, he looked on aghast as fear clouded his complexion. It was a reaction that summed up an underlying fragility that’s taken root in his side. The Manchester City manager admitted as much after the game, and defender Nathan Aké also hinted that the problems affecting Man City could be “mentality issues”.
Buoyed by that goal, Feyenoord cranked up the pressure and City simply weren’t up to it. The second and third goals were also really poor ones to concede, with Ederson arguably culpable for both. For a team full of experience, their game management was atrocious.
Two of Feyenoord’s three goals were defined by Opta as one resulting directly from Man City errors, and that is something that has troubled them all campaign. They’ve made 0.7 errors leading to an opposition shot on average per game in all competitions this season, and 0.3 errors that have led to a goal. Both of those figures are comfortably the highest they’ve ever been in any season under Pep.
The problem with errors is that they often result in handing your opponent high-value chances to score. The xG value for each of Feyenoord’s goals last night read: 0.31, 0.99 and 0.64, highlighting the fact these were game-changing chances that City essentially gift-wrapped for Brian Priske’s side.
It’s been a malaise that has troubled them all season. At 0.153, the average xG value of the shots City are conceding is comfortably the highest it’s been at any stage under Guardiola.
Another way to illustrate that defensive fragility is by looking at big chances conceded. City have faced 2.7 big chances per game this season, where a big chance is defined as one a player should reasonably be expected to score. That figure is easily the highest they’ve ever conceded under Guardiola, and almost double the next highest figure of 1.6 in 2023-24.
Remarkably, they’ve conceded more big chances this season in all competitions (54) than any other Premier League team.
The upshot is that they’re conceding goals like never before. This six-game barren run has seen them ship 2+ goals in six successive matches in all competitions for the first time since May 1963 – during a season in which they were relegated from the top flight.
Guardiola needs to find a way to stop the rot as quickly as possible.
Next up for City? An away trip to Anfield. Oh, goody.
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