By Opta Analyst | Created at 2026-07-18 17:28:12 | Updated at 2026-08-02 20:43:47
2 weeks ago
Didier Deschamps bids adieu as France and England face off in the 2026 FIFA World Cup bronze final on Saturday.
France vs England: The Key Insights
- France defeated England inside 90 minutes in 50.7% of the Opta supercomputer’s 25,000 pre-match simulations.
- England have featured in two FIFA World Cup third place play-offs, losing both of them – 2-1 to Italy in 1990 and 2-0 to Belgium in 2018. The only team to lose more than two are Uruguay (3).
- Didier Deschamps will take charge of his 187th and final match as manager of the France national team, with his 121 wins more than any other head coach for Les Bleus (D35 L30).
The FIFA World Cup third place play-off. The game that no one wants to play and only a few more want to watch.
Don’t take our word for it, take England manager Thomas Tuchel’s: “None of our players and none of the French players want to play this match,” the German told reporters.
“They want to play the final. We gave everything to achieve that. Everyone plays to win the World Cup, but that’s how it is.”
Understandably, given it is his final game as France manager, Didier Deschamps was a touch more defiant: “There’s a third-place finish to play for, so we’ll do everything we can to get it”, he said.
Adding: “We’re not where we wanted or expected to be. The disappointment matches our ambitions, … but we have to accept it. We have no other choice.”
Ultimately, both teams’ starting line-ups will likely give us a clearer idea of their ambitions.
So how did we get here? France and England were both favoured – albeit only slightly – to progress from their semi-final matches, and yet here they are performing as the undercard.
Spain’s world class midfield, led by Rodri, and their near unblemished defence, were France’s undoing.
Deschamps’ side had sailed to the semi-final with relative ease but until meeting Spain they had not faced a team with the requisite quality to dull their front four’s dynamism. They were held to a mere 0.31 expected goals – their worst return on record in a World Cup match.
England were much closer to reaching the final, and that is perhaps why the reaction to their failure to do so has been so strong. Their semi-final against Argentina had been stop-start and relatively even up until Anthony Gordon gave England a second-half lead.
What happened next, and why, will no doubt be debated for many years to come. Rather than capitalise on their lead, England dropped deep and allowed the best player in football history to have as much of the ball as he liked.
During the 30 minutes in which England led until Enzo Fernández’s equaliser, they had a 12% share of the possession. They were punished as a result, and Lionel Messi now has two more assists to his name.
England have been here before. They faced Italy in the third place play-off in 1990, and Belgium in 2018, losing both games.
France, meanwhile, are playing in the bronze final for a fourth time. They beat Germany in 1958, lost to Poland in 1982, and defeated Belgium in 1986. At least five goals were scored in each game.
Rotation is expected here, but there is always a chance for certain players to add to their World Cup tallies. Harry Kane, for instance, could very well make his final appearance in the competition – if he hasn’t already.
With 14 goals, Kane is the joint-fifth highest scorer in World Cup history, along with Gerd Müller, and sits one goal behind Ronaldo Nazario (15).
Kylian Mbappé, meanwhile, is the second-highest scorer in the competition’s history, with 20 goals. Lionel Messi has scored 21. Mbappé has time on his side in theory, but you never quite know what the future has in store.
Deschamps probably deserves to go out in style. A World Cup winner as a player in 1998 and as a manager in 2018 – one of only three players to achieve both – he is one of the most important figures in French football.
France vs England Head-to-Head
This is the fourth World Cup meeting between France and England – the Three Lions won the first two (2-0 in 1966, 3-1 in 1982) but France won 2-1 in the 2022 quarter-final most recently.
England have won just one of their last nine matches against France (D2 L6), winning 2-0 in a November 2015 friendly. They’re winless in four competitive meetings (D2 L2) since a 3-1 win in the World Cup in 1982.
France vs England Prediction
The Opta supercomputer views France as favourites to secure third place, winning the game inside 90 minutes in 50.7% of 25,000 pre-match simulations.
The next most likely result is a England win, at 25.6%, followed closely by a draw, which occurred in 23.7% of sims.
France vs England Squads
France: Brice Samba, Mike Maignan, Robin Risser, Malo Gusto, Lucas Digne, Dayot Upamecano, Jules Koundé, Ibrahima Konaté, William Saliba, Théo Hernández, Lucas Hernández, Maxence Lacroix, Manu Koné, Aurélien Tchouaméni, Michael Olise, N’Golo Kanté, Adrien Rabiot, Warren Zaïre-Emery, Rayan Cherki, Maghnes Akliouche, Ousmane Dembélé, Marcus Thuram, Kylian Mbappé, Bradley Barcola, Désiré Doué, Jean-Philippe Mateta.
England: Jordan Pickford, Dean Henderson, James Trafford, Ezri Konsa, Nico O’Reilly, John Stones, Marc Guéhi, Tino Livramento, Dan Burn, Reece James, Djed Spence, Jarell Quansah, Declan Rice, Elliot Anderson, Jude Bellingham, Jordan Henderson, Kobbie Mainoo, Morgan Rogers, Eberechi Eze, Bukayo Saka, Harry Kane, Marcus Rashford, Anthony Gordon, Ollie Watkins, Noni Madueke, Ivan Toney.
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