From Trump to tech titans, geopolitical traps await Southeast Asia

As Donald Trump settles back into the White House for a second term and the rest of the world readies itself for a reprisal of US threats and transactionalism, Southeast Asia has been put on notice where it stands with Washington.

A day after he was sworn in on January 21, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio spoke to his counterparts in the Philippines and Indonesia – a promising indication that at least some countries in the region matter. Rubio’s first meeting, however, was with the foreign ministers of Quadrilateral Security Dialogue members India, Japan and Australia.

Notably, the pithy, two-paragraph joint statement issued from that meeting departed from previous Quad statements that paid at least nominal homage to Asean and other regional mechanisms such as the Pacific Islands Forum and Indian Ocean Rim Association.

There is always a danger of reading too much into statements this early into a change of administration. But, as Rubio has repeatedly made clear, US foreign policy will be guided by three imperatives: to make America safer, stronger and more prosperous. “Placing the interest of America and Americans above all else has never been more relevant or more necessary than it is right now,” he said.

Southeast Asian countries, therefore, will be important to the United States only when Washington deems it so. And Asean, it seems, will once again be consigned to a non-player character in the background if Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth’s inability to name a single member of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations at his Senate confirmation hearing is anything to go by.

As many in Southeast Asia are acutely aware, the US prioritising its interests even at the expense of others’ is not new. Washington has simply been adept at projecting imperium through different filters. Under the Barack Obama and Joe Biden administrations, there was at least outreach to persuade Southeast Asian countries to align their converging interests with America’s, even if those efforts ultimately proved futile.