The caipirinhas were flowing, the samba and frevo dancers were swaying and a light ocean breeze enveloped the VIP guests in Rio de Janeiro. But as the Group of 20 communiqué popped up online, the mood was far from festive.
The behind-the-scenes squabbling over language characterising wars in Ukraine and the Middle East had been abruptly shut down by an impatient host, Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. That left a bitter taste, particularly among the United States and its allies.
Within hours, leaders who oversee 85 percent of the global economy awoke to news that Ukraine had fired US-made long-range missiles into Russia for the first time since Vladimir Putin invaded some 1,000 days earlier. The Kremlin repeated its threat of a nuclear response, jolting markets, and the US later made it known that it would provide Ukraine with antipersonnel land mines.
What was billed as a moment for “the West and the Rest” to show unity only served to show how quickly the guardrails are coming off the international rules-based order. North Koreans are fighting in Europe for the first time. Israel is resisting US efforts to halt fighting with Hezbollah and Hamas. China is regularly conducting military exercises surrounding Taiwan. Nuclear threats are becoming commonplace.
And that’s even before Donald Trump returns to the White House.
The sense of global disorder played out in Rio, most vividly when US President Joe Biden and two other Group of Seven leaders — Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Italian premier Giorgia Meloni — missed the traditional “family photo” on the first day of the summit. The US said the picture was taken early, while organisers said Biden was late.
To make up for it, Lula called for a re-shoot on Tuesday. Biden was actually in the picture this time — popping a cough drop in his mouth and smiling in an almost grandfatherly fashion — but the fake background in lieu of Rio’s stunning Sugarloaf Mountain only reinforced the impression that the attempts of togetherness were merely a façade.
At a diplomatic cocktail reception the first night, the 79-year-old Lula got tired and went home early. Many of those gathered wanted to take selfies with a smiling Biden, who turns 82 on Wednesday. At the end of the summit, neither one addressed reporters — an anti-climatic end that seemed to suggest none of the proceedings in Rio would matter much in a few months anyway.
The looming return of Trump hung over the proceedings like the proverbial sword of Damocles. Questions repeatedly bubbled up about what kind of role America would continue to play in world affairs under the new White House, with diplomats politely avoiding the term “isolationist.”
The leaders of emerging economies known as the Global South looked the most comfortable. India’s Narendra Modi and China’s Xi Jinping smiled and chatted with ease, holding centre-stage before and after the group photo shots. With Trump threatening tariffs on both of them, it felt a bit like the calm before the storm.
Milei rises
The old guard represented by the G7 looked off their game. Biden kept a light schedule on what is essentially a farewell tour, while Trudeau and Germany’s Olaf Scholz are similarly looking like lame ducks. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Japan’s Shigeru Ishiba are only months into the job and still finding their way.
The other two, France’s Emmanuel Macron and Italy’s Giorgia Meloni — both of whom suffered recent setbacks at the polls — gravitated toward Javier Milei, one of the standout presences in Rio. Milei is the kind of wild card that captures the imagination in unpredictable settings. He and Lula detest each other, with both looking miserable when protocol demanded they shake hands, but his off-camera rants against the establishment had everybody talking.
Macron, who at one point took an early-morning run by Copacabana beach surrounded by bodyguards, conferred frequently with Milei. In between taking her daughter to see the statue of Christ the Redeemer that overlooks Rio, Meloni joked with Milei that she wanted to brush up on her high-school Spanish.
Both Meloni and Milei have forged their own relationships with Elon Musk, who has Trump’s ear at least for now, and perhaps aspire to be whisperers of their own when he takes office in January. They were set to compare notes afterward, with Meloni heading to Buenos Aires to spend more time with Milei, who is fresh off his own trip to Mar-a-Lago.
Meloni is a good example of the balancing act many G7 leaders face. When asked about US disengagement from the world, she was was quick to say it was important for the so-called West to stick together.
Cracks emerging
Macron appeared eager to fill the vacuum in the group left by Biden’s departure. Ukrainian and European officials have been praising his embrace of a tougher stance towards Moscow and seeing Kyiv’s plight in terms that are existential to Europe’s future. Whether France can rally allies is a different matter, they added.
Scholz continued to resist sending long-range Taurus missiles to Kyiv in light of the US decision, and drew rebukes — privately and publicly — for an earlier phone call with Putin even though he pleaded in vain with Lula to let Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy join the gathering.
Below the surface, the cracks split wide open. One diplomat said it’s clear that Trump despises much of what Europe stands for and that’s not likely to change, so nations on the continent simply needed to find as many allies as possible to support collective action on multilateral climate commitments and support for the World Trade Organization.
The new world
Yet if Rio showed anything, it’s that the West is no longer running the show. Every G20 statement since Russia’s war against Ukraine has been weaker than the previous version. Fewer and fewer nations want to play by old rules, let alone defend them.
A few diplomats noted that Lula broke several diplomatic conventions when he hit the button early on the G20 communiqué — and that sends a powerful message to any future host. Some leaders said they had hoped for stronger language, particularly on Russia’s war in Ukraine.
But Lula, who spent time in prison and staged a political comeback on par or better than that of Trump, didn’t seem to care. As Western diplomats complained about one of the most chaotic summits in living memory, Brazil has a very different perception: The slight to Biden was unintentional, and the topics close to Lula’s heart — the fight against hunger, the tax on billionaires — made it in the final statement.
As one seasoned diplomat put it: Embrace the sun, enjoy the cocktail hour and “Welcome to Latin America.”
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by Alberto Nardelli, Michael Nienaber & Samy Adghirni, Bloomberg
