🌎 Geopolitics 101: Trump’s Tariff Geostrategy

Mentioned in this edition: Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Justin Trudeau, Xi Jinping, Aleksandar Vučić, Dina Boluarte, Jair and Eduardo Bolsonaro, Barack Obama, George W. Bush, and more.

Good morning. Trump’s the name and tariffs are the game, but it’s not a game the rest of the world is excited to play. However, they don’t really have a choice: as the world order shifts, the United States is preparing itself with protectionism. We dive into why.

🔎 WHAT WE'RE WATCHING

🇮🇱 Israel renewed its ground invasion of Gaza. After launching a series of missiles at key Hamas leaders, the IDF has followed up with a re-introduction of troops throughout Gaza, including to the Netzarim Corridor, which runs between northern and southern Gaza, and Rafah, a major city in the south. Israel is likely attempting to destroy any improvements Hamas has made to their positions during the ceasefire. The offensive escalated when Hamas refused to release Israeli hostages in exchange for Israel ending the war, which Israel refused unless Hamas gave up control of Gaza.

🇨🇩 The Democratic Republic of Congo wants America to defend it. After President Trump sought a mineral deal with Ukraine, the President of the DRC is now trying to entice America with a similar idea. The deal would see America secure some mineral rights in exchange for helping secure the country. The deal could be extremely lucrative, as the DRC is an immense country home to lots of critical minerals. But it could get America involved in ongoing African military conflicts, such as the ongoing Rwandan-backed invasion of the DRC.

🇷🇺 Vladimir Putin is forcing Ukrainians to get Russian citizenship or self-deport. While the ultimate result of the Russo-Ukrainian War is still unclear, it will likely end with Russia in control of much of the country’s southeast — and they’re preparing for it. The new decree forces Ukrainians to choose between staying in their homes and becoming Russian, or fleeing. Coming amid ceasefire talks, the decree draws a line for the Russian side. The move also demonstrates Putin’s desire to incorporate the territories into the rest of Russia.

🇹🇷 Turkey’s president just had his biggest rival arrested. Long-time Turkish ruler Recep Tayyip Erdoğan was losing in the polls to popular Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu. But Turkish law requires politicians to have a degree from a higher university, and this week, İmamoğlu’s was unexpectedly revoked. Turkish officials then arrested the mayor for corruption and terrorism, sparking protests. The charges are almost certainly trumped up, exposing Erdoğan's undemocratic power grab as the West remains silent due to Turkey’s strategic importance.

🇪🇺 EUROPE

🌏 ASIA-PACIFIC

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Mentioned behind the paywall: Chinese executions, a Hindu temple, a volcano, and US military forces.

🐪 MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA

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Mentioned behind the paywall: US climate aid, laser-guided munitions, a released hostage, and Algerian deportees.

🚢 THE AMERICAS

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Mentioned behind the paywall: A constitutional amendment, Tesla attacks, a state of emergency, and more trouble with the Bolsonaros.

What’s happening

The Trump administration has re-ignited a global trade war with allies and adversaries alike. His moves are spooking investors and driving down the stock market amid the uncertainty surrounding the White House's objectives.

President Trump placed 25 percent tariffs on steel and aluminum from all countries and a 20 percent tariff on Chinese products. When the European Union threatened tariffs on Kentucky bourbon and Harley Davidson motorcycles in response to the steel and aluminum tariffs, Trump responded by threatening to levy 200 percent tariffs on European alcohol…

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