By Opta Analyst | Created at 2026-06-08 14:49:44 | Updated at 2026-06-08 16:26:11
2 hours ago
The 2026 FIFA World Cup is just around the corner, but who will light up the competition and land the Golden Ball award?
The 2026 FIFA World Cup is almost upon us, with 48 teams travelling to the United States, Mexico and Canada for the biggest-ever edition of the tournament.
While the world’s top players will be visualising lifting the trophy, those that inspire their teams to deep runs may also be in line for individual honours.
The World Cup Golden Ball is given to the best player at each tournament, with the first official award going to Italy’s Paolo Rossi in 1982.
Overall, 12 different players have claimed the World Cup Golden Ball award since then, with Lionel Messi the only man to do so more than once, following his glorious Qatar 2022 campaign (also in 2014).
Here, we run through the leading contenders to clinch the prize in 2026.
Lionel Messi (Argentina)
Messi will turn 39 years old before Argentina’s final group game, but as the only two-time recipient in the history of the award, he cannot be counted out.
If Messi’s first Golden Ball-winning campaign in 2014 was impressive, registering four goals and one assist as Argentina finished as runners-up, his 2022 run was historic.
Messi recorded seven goals and three assists, tying Kylian Mbappé for the most goal involvements at the tournament, while also leading all players for open-play chances created (17) and fouls won (22).
He became the first player in World Cup history to score in the group stage, round of 16, quarter-final, semi-final and final at a single edition, and the first player to register a goal and an assist in three separate games at a single tournament.
Messi overhauled Lothar Matthäus for the competition’s all-time appearance record in the final (26) and put on a masterclass versus France, with his eight defensive-line-breaking passes the joint-most by any player in a game at Qatar 2022 – in addition to his two goals and successful penalty in the shootout.
The question is, can Messi replicate those levels three and a half years on?
If his performances in Major League Soccer are anything to go by (and the knock he has been carrying lately is not serious), then perhaps he can.
Messi has 19 goal involvements in just 14 MLS games in 2026 (12 goals, 7 assists), as well as leading the charts for chances created (42) and expected assists (7.6 xA).
Of course, Messi has not tested himself against Europe’s elite in some time, and Opta’s League Power Rankings rate MLS as the 20th-best league in world football.
But Argentina have a 10.4% probability of retaining their trophy, according to the latest Opta supercomputer projections, and if the tournament goes that way, Messi would be the clear Golden Ball favourite.
Lamine Yamal (Spain)
We move on from the greatest player in Barcelona’s history to one hoping to build his own legacy at Camp Nou.
Spain are the Opta supercomputer’s favourites to lift the World Cup, so their brightest attacking talent is worthy of consideration in this conversation.
Teenage sensation Lamine Yamal lit up Euro 2024, being named Young Player of the Tournament following a record-breaking campaign.
The young winger provided four assists in Germany – no one has ever recorded more in a single edition of the European Championship. And with his stunning winner against France in the semi-finals, Yamal, who was only 16 years old at the time, overhauled the great Pelé to become the youngest player to ever score at a Euros or a World Cup.
Yamal has gone from strength to strength since that tournament, as the undoubted star of a Barça team that has won back-to-back La Liga titles.
Despite his 2025-26 season being cut short by a hamstring injury in April, Yamal recorded 41 total goal involvements for the Blaugrana in all competitions (24 goals, 17 assists) – only five players from Europe’s top five leagues had more.
Yamal, as we know, is a truly exceptional ball carrier and chance creator, which Spain might need to rely upon when they come up against packed defences. Yamal attempted (429) and completed (225) more dribbles than anyone else from Europe’s top five leagues in 2025-26, as well as creating the most chances following carries (59).
The only concern for Yamal is that hamstring issue, which threatens to sideline him for Spain’s opening Group H game versus Cape Verde.
Harry Kane (England)
The nation that lost out to Spain in that Euro 2024 final, England, are assigned a 10.6% chance of ending 60 years of hurt and bringing football ‘home’ based on the Opta supercomputer’s latest 25,000 tournament simulations.
If the Three Lions are to do so, they will need their captain and all-time leading goalscorer Harry Kane to be in fine form.
Luckily for Thomas Tuchel, Kane has a real claim to being the best footballer on the planet right now.
Throughout 2025-26, Kane plundered 61 goals in 51 appearances for Bayern Munich across all competitions, a staggering 19 goals more than any other player from Europe’s top five leagues since the 2025 Club World Cup finished (Mbappé netted 42). Kane also supplied seven assists, taking him to a remarkable 68 goal involvements.
Those 61 goals came from a total expected goals (xG) figure of 44.4, and his overperformance of +16.6 was not only the best by any player from Europe’s top five leagues, it was over double that of his closest rival, with Antoine Semenyo recording an xG overperformance of +7.3 for Bournemouth and Manchester City combined.
Kane also has plenty of World Cup pedigree, with his eight goals across the 2018 (6) and 2022 (2) tournaments only bettered by Mbappé’s 12. He needs three goals to overhaul Gary Lineker (10) as England’s all-time leading World Cup scorer.
However, it should be noted that, of the 11 previous World Cup Golden Ball awards, only two have ever gone to the player who was the leading goalscorer at that same tournament. They were both Italians – Rossi in 1982 and Salvatore Schillaci in 1990.
Kane is capable of being the kind of talisman that lands these awards, having provided a tournament-high three assists under high pressure at Qatar 2022. But England have other stars capable of grabbing the headlines, too, including Arsenal duo Bukayo Saka andDeclan Rice, and Real Madrid’s Jude Bellingham.
Kylian Mbappé (France)
There will surely be other Madrid players in the Golden Ball conversation, starting with Kylian Mbappé.
Having donned the captain’s armband for his country since Hugo Lloris retired from international duty in 2023, Mbappé remains the central figure in a star-studded attack that also features Ballon d’Or holder Ousmane Dembélé.
Had France edged out Argentina on spot-kicks in 2022, Mbappé would surely have pipped Messi to the Golden Ball.
Having become only the second player to score a World Cup final hat-trick, after Geoff Hurst in 1966, Mbappé was also the first player to net as many as eight goals at a single tournament since Ronaldo for Brazil in 2002 – that is the joint-highest tally since Gerd Müller’s 10 in 1970.
Mbappé, like Messi, could become the World Cup’s all-time leading scorer this year, needing five goals to overhaul current record holder Miroslav Klose (16) at only his third tournament.
He is already one of only five players to score in multiple World Cup finals, alongside Vavá (1958, 1962), Pelé (1958, 1970), Paul Breitner (1974, 1982) and Zinedine Zidane (1998, 2006), and repeating the trick again – this time in a France victory – would surely make him the favourite.
The possibility of a blockbuster round-of-16 meeting with Germany if both they and France top their group is a potential obstacle, but Les Bleus’ 12.8% chance of lifting the trophy makes them the Opta supercomputer’s second favourites as things stand.
Vinícius Júnior (Brazil)
Three countries have supplied two different winners of the Golden Ball. Messi and Diego Maradona for Argentina, Rossi and Schillaci for Italy, and Ronaldo and Romário for Brazil.
The Seleção are enduring their joint-worst World Cup drought since first winning the tournament in 1958, going 24 years without lifting the trophy (also 24 years between 1990 and 1994).
They are banking on the experience of Carlo Ancelotti as they chase a record-extending sixth crown, and if he is to succeed, the Italian must get the best out of Vinícius Júnior.
Mbappé’s fellow Real Madrid star has so far failed to deliver his best football on the international stage, only scoring nine goals in 49 senior appearances for Brazil.
At his three major tournaments, (2022 World Cup, 2021 and 2024 Copa América), Vinícius has three goals and two assists in 11 appearances. But perhaps the chance to step out of Neymar’s shadow may help him realise his potential on the biggest stage.
Brazil’s all-time leading goalscorer – who may himself have been a Golden Ball contender in 2014 before suffering a back injury in the quarter-finals – has been recalled by Ancelotti, but is nursing a calf issue, having not appeared for his country since 2023.
And, in the wake of a 6-2 friendly win over Panama, Ancelotti said Neymar cannot play out wide, suggesting he will have to compete with Vinícius and Raphinha for a place in his fluid four-man attack.
Across all competitions last season, Vinícius played 48% of his minutes for Real Madrid as a central striker, compared to 52% out wide.
Ancelotti will surely have a plan to unleash Vinícius, and if he can do what Neymar has so far failed to – lead them to silverware – then he will be a surefire Golden Ball candidate.
Cristiano Ronaldo (Portugal)
He couldn’t, could he?
Messi’s 2022 Golden Ball – at the age of 35 – made him the oldest-ever recipient of the World Cup’s top solo prize.
Having turned 41 in February, Cristiano Ronaldo can join Messi – and Mexico goalkeeper Guillermo Ochoa – in appearing at a record-breaking sixth edition of the World Cup.
Ronaldo’s best days may be behind him – the Saudi Pro League is 42nd in Opta’s League Power Rankings, lower than England’s League One and South Korea’s K-League – but he can never be counted out.
For a start, he is part of one of the strongest squads at the whole tournament – Portugal are assigned a 7% chance of lifting the trophy, the fifth-best of any team.
And group-stage fixtures against DR Congo and Uzbekistan should, on paper, offer Ronaldo a chance to bolster his numbers and build momentum ahead of the knockout rounds.
But that is where Ronaldo has previously struggled. He might be the only player to net at five separate World Cups, but he has never scored (or assisted) in eight knockout-stage games at the finals.
And even if Portugal do go all the way, there may be other players that make a greater all-round impact. Manchester United’s Bruno Fernandes is coming off a record 21-assist campaign in the Premier League, while Paris Saint-Germain’s Vitinha completed almost as many passes in the UEFA Champions League final as Arsenal’s 10 outfield starters combined (141 versus 148).
And besides, of the last seven Golden Ball awards, only one has gone to someone that played for that year’s champions – Messi in 2022.
Who Are the Golden Ball Outsiders?
There have been left-field winners of the Golden Ball before, including Germany goalkeeper Oliver Kahn in 2002 and Uruguay forward Diego Forlán in 2010.
So, who else might fancy their chances of being in the conversation?
In the CONMEBOL qualifiers, only Messi (8 goals) outscored Colombia’s Luis Díaz (7), while his teammate James Rodríguez led the assist charts with seven – the latter was the Player of the Tournament at the 2024 Copa América.
France might still be led by Mbappé, but Michael Olise could be just as important after a season in which he scored 15 goals and assisted 19 in the Bundesliga for Bayern Munich.
Who could count out Norway’s Erling Haaland? Or if Belgium go far, his Man City teammates past and present, Kevin De Bruyne and Jérémy Doku, could each make a case.
Germany could also provide a couple of names, with Jamal Musiala and Florian Wirtz both elite creators on their day.
One thing is for sure; there will be no shortage of contenders.
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