Harris and Trump neck-and-neck in polls with early voting under way

More than 1.4 million people have now voted in the presidential election, as Kamala Harris and Donald Trump continue to crisscross the country in the final stretch of a neck-and-neck campaign.

Their vice-presidential picks, JD Vance and Tim Walz, also faced off this week in the only vice-presidential debate of this cycle. But initial polls suggested voters saw the debate as a draw, without clear impact on the race.

Harris earned her highest national polling average since July, though the presidential race remains extremely close in battleground states, according to the Guardian’s poll tracker. Harris is leading in five of seven swing states, according to the Guardian’s average of high-quality state polls aggregated by the polling analysis platform 538 over the last 10 days. But overall, both candidates continue to have about even odds of winning.

The Guardian’s tracker shows Harris with 49.3% of the vote nationally, compared with 46% for Trump. Early voting is already under way and more than 1.4 million Americans had voted as of midday Friday, according to data collected by the Election Lab at the University of Florida.

Harris retains a slight lead, similar to the Guardian’s analysis last week. But the numbers have yet to reflect the vice-presidential debate.

The simplest path to winning the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency continues to be winning the battleground states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. While Harris leads Trump in the 10-day average of polls in all three, according to the Guardian’s analysis (Pennsylvania by 1.2 points, Michigan by 0.1 point, and Wisconsin by 2.2 points), those advantages aren’t significant enough to say who will win, analysts say.

The race is similarly close in the four other battleground states, Nevada, North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona.

“No candidate enjoys a significant lead in states worth the 270 electoral votes needed to win,” Nate Cohn, the polling analyst for the New York Times, wrote in his weekly newsletter. “This might be the clearest read we’ve had of the race so far. It was arguably the first ‘quiet’ week since Vice-President Harris’s entry into the race.”

One slight exception may be in Pennsylvania, Cohn wrote. Polls showed Harris leading in the state by about 2 points after the 10 September debate, but now the race there was essentially tied, he wrote.

The Guardian’s tracker is based on an average of high quality polls over the last 10 days compiled by 538. As of Friday, the forecasting site said the race was essentially a toss-up, with Harris having a 55% chance of winning and Trump having a 45% chance.

Some of Trump’s best polling has been in Arizona – he leads Harris there 48.8% to 48%, according to the Guardian’s state poll tracker. Some of that advantage may have to do with his support among Hispanic voters, Cohn wrote.

When Joe Biden won Arizona in 2020, he carried Latino voters by nearly 25 points. Four high-quality polls released this week showed Harris leading among Hispanic voters by no more than 12 points, Cohn noted. A national poll from NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC found Harris leading among Hispanic voters 54%-40%. Biden won 59% of the Hispanic vote in 2020.

“Mr Trump’s strength among Hispanic voters this cycle might seem surprising, but four years ago he made big gains among them across the country,” Cohn wrote. “And in 2016, he fared no worse than Mitt Romney’s 2012 showing among them, even though his anti-immigration rhetoric created the expectation of a significant backlash. In retrospect, his resilience among Hispanic voters in 2016 looks like a harbinger of what was to come.”

Hispanic voters are not a monolith and Trump and Biden may be targeting different parts of the demographic. A Pew analysis found Biden won college-educated Hispanic voters 69% to 30% in 2020. But among non-college educated Hispanics, he won a much narrower 55% to 41%.

Recent polling from the non-partisan Cook Political Report also found that the race was essentially tied. But its analysis did show some good signs for Harris.

A plurality of voters now think Harris will win the election, with 46% saying so compared to 39% for Trump.

“That represents an 11-point swing in Harris’s favor since August, and suggests that Harris has been successful in presenting herself as a serious candidate, while Trump’s attempts to portray her as unable to do the job have not been effective,” Amy Walter and Jessica Taylor, two of the site’s editors, wrote in an analysis.

There were also some encouraging signs for Harris on the economy, the Cook Political Report found. While Trump continues to lead among voters who believe he is better equipped to handle the economy, voters are evenly split on who would be better to get inflation under control. In August, Trump had a 48%-42% advantage on the issue.

The shift might reflect that Harris’s messaging on the economy is breaking through to voters, Walter and Taylor wrote. It could also suggest that Trump hasn’t been successful in linking Harris to the rising cost of living, they said.