Hormuz deal signing nears as Polymarket puts June 30 text release at 94%

By Blockchain News | Created at 2026-06-17 08:19:31 | Updated at 2026-06-18 06:53:17 1 day ago

U.S.-Iran Strait of Hormuz Deal Signing in Switzerland: Polymarket Prices June 30 Deal-Text Release at 93.6%

A proposed U.S.-Iran deal that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and lift a U.S. naval blockade is expected to be signed in Switzerland on Friday, focusing attention on when the agreement’s text could be made public. On Polymarket, traders are pricing a high chance the US-Iran deal text will be released by the June 30 strike in the ladder contract.

Key Takeaways

Polymarket prices a 93.6% chance the US-Iran deal text is released by the June 30 strike.
The catalyst is fresh reporting on an expected U.S.-Iran signing and the operational timeline tied to reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
The market’s resolution date is July 1, 2026 at 03:59 UTC, with June 16, June 17, June 19, and June 30 as ladder strikes.

Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz could rebound to nearly half of prewar levels within 30 days if a U.S.-Iran deal is implemented without major setbacks, according to analysts at trade data firm Kpler. Kpler estimates about 118 tankers are stuck in the Persian Gulf and could exit the region within roughly 15 days, with fully loaded vessels expected to move first. The deal is expected to be signed Friday in Switzerland and would reopen Hormuz and lift a U.S. naval blockade of Iran, the report said, with daily transits potentially rising to about 40 versus roughly 100 before attacks that began on Feb. 28. Shipping group Bimco warned that the area remains high risk and said the threat of mines is a major concern, citing a lack of detail and volatile security conditions. The report also described conflicting signals over whether Hormuz would remain toll-free long term, with Iranian state media suggesting a time-limited toll-free period while U.S. officials said the expectation is toll-free access over the longer run.

Polymarket Odds Curve and Volume: $214,872 Matched as June 30 Leads (93.6% Yes) vs June 19 (90%), June 17 (58.5%), June

Polymarket’s ladder market has $214,872 in matched volume and is heavily skewed toward later strikes, with June 30 Yes at 93.6% versus No at 6.4%. Pricing for June 19 is similarly confident at 90.0% Yes and 10.0% No, while the curve steepens for nearer dates: June 17 trades at 58.5% Yes and 41.5% No, and June 16 at 34.0% Yes and 66.0% No. The spread across strikes implies traders see a meaningful chance of release after mid-June but before late June, while assigning relatively low odds that disclosure slips past June 30 ahead of the July 1, 2026 resolution date.

Watch for any official confirmation of the agreement’s signing timeline and any public indication of when the text will be released, as the June 16 and June 17 strikes are the first near-term inflection points in the ladder.

Beyond the U.S.-Iran Deal: Other High-Volume Geopolitical and Macro Contracts Polymarket Traders Are Tracking

Beyond the timing of any disclosure, Polymarket flows show traders also clustering around broader de-escalation and logistics questions tied to the region. The $361,896,128 “US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?” contract points to 99.6% on December 31, while “US and Iran sign an agreement by...?” is priced at 100.0% for June 22. On the operational side, “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?” sits at 82.5% No on $24,429,078, as positioning also follows the venue question in “Where will the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting happen?” with Switzerland at 79.4% on $11,811,403.

By the Numbers

Platform: Polymarket
Market: US-Iran deal text released by...?
Contract type: Price strike ladder: each rung has separate Yes/No; Yes means the spot price is above that USD strike at settlement.
Resolution window: Jul 01, 2026 (UTC)
Status: Active (open for trading)
Volume: ~$214,872
24h change: +0.0 pp

Top strike rungs

StrikeYesNo