Two shocks are hitting the world’s food system at once.
The first is fertilizer. The Persian Gulf normally accounts for about 40 percent of globally traded urea exports, and after the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed in late February, urea rose from around $400 to more than $850 a ton in April before easing to $453 in June. Relief may be temporary. The International Food Policy Research Institute warned in July that fertilizer markets would not normalize before the end of 2026 even if the conflict ended, and the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) expects scarcity to reduce yields and tighten food supplies in late 2026 and into 2027.
The second shock is grain. Ukraine’s seaports carry more than 90 percent of its grain exports and have been unable to receive foreign vessels since late July. Ukrainian shipments in the first half of August ran about 76 percent below year-earlier levels. The Black Sea confrontation has become mutual economic warfare against the region’s agricultural logistics, with Ukraine now striking Russian terminals too.
Worldwide Ramifications
In the West the pain may be deferred, although U.S. grocery prices are rising. Households already absorbing 3.4 percent annual price inflation will likely see prices go higher. The developing world will be hit harder. Egypt, the world’s largest wheat importer, sourced more than 82 percent of its wheat from Russia and Ukraine in the first half of 2026. Its bread subsidy serves roughly 70 million people, and Russian wheat offers climbed from about $283 to $298 a ton between early July and late August. Cairo remembers that Egyptian President Anwar Sadat’s 1977 subsidy cuts triggered protests that forced him to reverse them.
Elsewhere, FAO and World Food Program USA (WFP) place Sudan, South Sudan, Yemen, Palestine, Nigeria, and Somalia at the highest level of concern, with Afghanistan, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Haiti just below. Famine risk persists in Sudan, South Sudan, Gaza, and Somalia, and WFP says millions more in Somalia, Afghanistan, and Sri Lanka had already slipped into acute food insecurity by early June.
Effect on Migration
Could this become a migration wave? WFP research found that each percentage-point rise in food insecurity was associated with about 1.9 percent more migration, and Syrian asylum applications to Europe reportedly rose from roughly 10,000 to 60,000 per month in 2015 when humanitarian assistance was slashed. Food insecurity also feeds armed conflict, which can displace even more people.
This exacerbates massive immigration already taking place from Third to First World countries. What happens when you have dozens of rival tribes vying for finite resources? The United Nations predicts peace and universal brotherhood.
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