By Opta Analyst | Created at 2026-09-14 16:31:02 | Updated at 2026-09-19 11:01:55
4 days ago
Few gave Hull City much hope of staying up in the Premier League this season, but they’ve taken eight points from their first four games. They appear to be thriving.
Hull City were widely written off before a ball was kicked in the 2026-27 Premier League season. In fact, as soon as their promotion was confirmed by success in the Championship play-offs, some were already predicting them to threaten Derby County’s record for the lowest points total in Premier League history.
Such predictions were obviously a little reactive and dramatic, but they reflected some of the discourse around what was considered a very surprising promotion.
After all, Hull’s campaign was hardly emphatic. Their underlying numbers in the Championship painted a picture of a team who overachieved massively when looking at our expected points (xPts) model, which simulates the number of goals scored by each side in every match based on the expected goals (xG) value of all shots taken. It then uses the simulated number of goals to determine the match outcome (win/draw/loss); each match is then simulated 10,000 times. The expected points for each team in every match can then be calculated based on the proportion of simulations they win/draw/lose.
Of course, this isn’t an exact science as xG data doesn’t account for a lot of additional factors, such as game state and dangerous periods of possession that don’t lead to shots. Nevertheless, it’s still a decent barometer for how teams have performed, especially over a prolonged period.
In the Championship last term, Hull amassed 73 points; their xPts was just 53.1. Only Sheffield Wednesday (30.0) recorded fewer xPts than the Tigers. Essentially, had the real table reflected the xPts table, they’d have finished in the bottom three and been relegated.
Hull’s overperformance of 19.9 in relation to their xPts was the biggest in the Championship. On that evidence, a season in the Premier League looked daunting.
But as early into the 2026-27 season as it still is, Sergej Jakirovic’s men have confounded all expectations.
Saturday’s 2-2 draw with Chelsea at Stamford Bridge was their latest shock result. Up against the Blues’ in-form front three of João Pedro, Cole Palmer and Morgan Rogers, few gave them any chance, even accounting for their hosts’ unimpressive defensive record this term.
Hull fell behind early to Rogers’ clinical finish, but found themselves 2-1 up at half-time thanks to a couple of Mohamed Belloumi strikes. João Pedro equalised for Chelsea just after the hour, and many might’ve expected them to power home to success, particularly given the nature of their midweek EFL Cup win over Leeds United.
But Hull were good value for the point they left with. And they might even argue they should’ve won based on the balance of clear-cut opportunities; Hull had four ‘big chances’ (those from which a player would ordinarily be expected to score) to Chelsea’s two on the day.
It was a continuation of Hull’s highly encouraging start to the Premier League season that saw them beat Manchester United and Coventry before drawing with Aston Villa.
As such, they find themselves on eight points after four matches, making their start to 2026-27 one of the best introductions to the Premier League for a promoted team.
The only promoted sides in Premier League history to earn more than eight points after four matchdays are Nottingham Forest (10 pts – 1994-95) and Bolton Wanderers (10 pts – 2001-02). Neither of those two teams were relegated, nor were the other two promoted sides to start a Premier League campaign with eight points through Matchday 4.
One theory for their excellent start and adaptation to the Premier League is that they are so well adjusted to the football they’re playing.
Even in the Championship, they weren’t a team who regularly dominated the ball and looked to exert control with possession.
Over the course of the full 2025-26 season (including play-offs), Hull averaged 45.0% possession, the fifth lowest in the division. Although it is still a considerable drop to their 29.3% this season, it’s not like they’ve gone from generally having more of the ball than their opposition to suddenly having very little of it.
Coventry City, on the other hand, had 55.1% of the ball last season – the fourth most in the Championship – to just 38.6% in the Premier League. The drop is comparable to that of Hull but arguably more significant is the shift in mindset for Coventry because they’ve gone from tending to have more possession than the opposition to having considerably less.
This isn’t exactly a phenomenon specific to this season, though. It might be said Hull are following the example of Sunderland.
The Black Cats were promoted in 2024-25 without trying to dominate the ball, so they were perfectly familiar with that mentality once they were in the Premier League. Granted, they also spent a lot of money and bought well, but maintaining a certain mindset in the squad will have had some impact.
Sunderland boss Régis Le Bris effectively touched upon the subject last week, outlining the importance of balancing humility and belief. He embraces the “underdog” tag but also doesn’t want his players to only think about beating opposition from the bottom half of the table.
Prior to last season, there had been a series of teams being promoted playing possession-focused football, but they were then either unable to maintain that following the step up, or were less effective at turning control into points (see Southampton from 2024-25).
Obviously there’s more to it than just possession figures, but these do give us a reasonable idea of a team’s mindset on the ball. Hull have essentially doubled down on the kind of football they played last season.
Hull were one of the deepest teams in the Championship last term, with the average starting position of their open-play passing sequences being 41.2 metres from their goal-line; they are the deepest team in the Premier League this term (37.7m). They were one of the least intricate teams in the Championship, managing just 39 (sixth fewest) sequences of 10+ passes ending with a shot or touch in the opposition’s box; they rank bottom in the PL this term (1). They were one of the most direct teams in the second tier, averaging just 2.7 passes per sequence (fifth fewest); they are averaging the fewest (2.5) in the top flight.
“Mostly we will be underdogs, but we’re used to it,” Jakirovic said ahead of the MD1 win over Man Utd, highlighting the point that they weren’t exactly fancied in the Championship, let alone the top flight.
They’ve made themselves tough to beat, though, firstly because they prioritise not conceding, but also through simply being sturdy competitors. They rank fourth for duel success (53.2%), sixth for aerial duel success (52.3%), joint fifth for tackle attempts (65) and second for long passes (237) in the Premier League.
It may not be the prettiest, but over the first few matchdays it’s been effective.
Jakirovic said after Saturday’s draw that he told the team at the beginning of the season they’d get a week off if they could manage seven or eight points across their first five matches.
They reached that target with time to spare, though Jakirovic doesn’t appear to be taking much for granted, worried about what could be around the corner.
“I’m a bit concerned about the international break because we have 13 national team players,” he added on Saturday, fully aware that a great start will mean nothing if their form quickly nosedives.
After all, Hull have enjoyed promising starts to Premier League seasons before and ultimately gone on to have stressful campaigns.
In 2008-09, Hull were third in the table after nine matchdays and remained in the top half until MD24, before only escaping relegation by a single point. The 2013-14 season saw them take 11 points from their first seven outings, only losing to Chelsea and Manchester City, though they ended up getting dragged into a relegation battle. And then in 2014-15, they lost only two of their first nine, but ultimately finished in 18th and went down.
There’s a long way to go, but at the moment Hull’s robustness and effective style of play are serving them well. A year as underdogs and defying expectations in the Championship seems to have been the ideal preparation for doing just that in the Premier League too.
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