How can Africa reduce the influence of Russian mercenaries?

For years, Russian mercenaries seemed unstoppable as they gained footholds in numerous African countries, at the invitation of local governments. 

They secured access to valuable raw materials like gold and tropical timber, while simultaneously establishing an apparatus that injected pro-Russian positions into public discourse.

While many countries are emancipating themselves ever more quickly and clearly from Western former colonial powers, Russian President Vladimir Putin stands ready as a new partner.

However, the Russian success story has had a few setbacks. In July 2024, Russian mercenaries suffered heavy losses when rebels from the Tuareg ethnic minority ambushed them near the town of Tinzaouatene in northern Mali.

The rebels feel marginalized by the Malian government and have long sought autonomy for the desert region they call Azawad.

Russia's influence in Africa further diminished with the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria in December, which dominated news headlines across Africa.

The once formidable image of Russian strength is now tarnished, compounded by ongoing reports of human rights violations by Russian mercenaries.

Limiting Russian mercenaries in Africa

A recent analysis by the Global Initiative against Transnational Organized Crime (GI), a Swiss-based independent civil-society organization, provides insights into the activities of Russian mercenary groups in Africa. It also offers recommendations for African governments and the international community on how to curb their involvement.

The report recommends engaging rather than isolating states where Russian mercenaries are present, applying diplomatic pressure on Russia's logistics partners, and implementing coordinated sanctions against Russian mercenaries.

It also suggests taking extensive measures against Russian disinformation and providing more support in combating illegal economic activities.

GI analyst Julia Stanyard writes that the involvement of Russian mercenaries in atrocities and their proximity to illicit businesses is undermining security in Africa.

"A few years ago, it was documented that they used their access to airfields in Sudan to smuggle large amounts of gold out of the country," she told DW in an interview.

"Similar activities have been observed in the Central African Republic, and they are also present around mines in Mali. In their countries of operation, they play a significant role in the smuggling of mineral resources."

Dealing with the Sahel Alliance: sanctions or cooperation?

The situation in West Africa is particularly complex as the Sahel states of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger have left the economic alliance ECOWAS following military coups and formed their own Alliance of Sahel States (AES).

Julia Stanyard recommends rebuilding bridges, at least in the security sector.

"The rebels active in the Sahel ignore modern borders, making the political isolation of the breakaway countries a problem in itself," she said. "We have recommended in our report that some channels of communication must be maintained, especially in the security sector."

Beverly Ochieng, who works on security issues for the Africa Program of the US Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), particularly in West and Central Africa, also agrees.

"Despite its concerns about the involvement of Russian paramilitaries and undemocratic governments, ECOWAS needs to find ways to work with the Sahel Alliance," Ochieng told DW.

"In building a force against insurgents, ECOWAS has approached the military rulers in the Sahel. They are blocking this, but in the long term, this would be the most strategically sensible way to keep the rebels in check everywhere."

Ochieng believes that the AES may come to realize that, given the fragile security situation, Russian mercenaries are not the only solution.

"They probably need to consider broadening their base. For instance, there are reports that paramilitary instructors from a private Turkish academy are reinforcing the armed forces in Mali," she said.

"The entire region needs to think about how to oppose the rebels, especially without Western support."

Russia's logistics partners

Russia's security services in Africa have undergone significant changes in recent years. Initially, the private army Wagner, led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, sent risk-taking fighters to the Central African Republic.

The influential Prigozhin had a showdown with Putin in 2023 before dying in a mysterious plane crash, according to Russian authorities. Since then, the Russian Ministry of Defense has taken over large parts of the Wagner Group, incorporating them into its command structure under the Africa Corps.

As experts continue to observe the next major restructuring, the army bases in Syria, crucial for Russian operations in Africa, can no longer be used due to the regime change there.

GI analyst Julia Stanyard suggests that now would be an opportune time to diplomatically increase pressure on Russia's logistics partners.

Eastern Libya, controlled by Russia-friendly General Khalifa Haftar, has recently gained importance as a hub. However, Russia needs to establish new bases where equipment can be safely stored.

"There are also talks about a naval base in Sudan, which would be more of a long-term approach," said Stanyard.

However, Beverly Ochieng believes that Russia, with its numerous representations and ties in Africa, will always find ways.

"In January, they shipped a large consignment of military vehicles and equipment to Mali via Guinea," said Ochieng. "This shows how much open access Russian paramilitaries have, whether through ports, air, or road, without African institutions or governments intervening."

What is Russia's future in Africa?

In general, Russia's mercenary activities in Africa are likely to continue evolving.

Julia Stanyard believes that with the constant stream of new missions, the troops are increasingly spread thin across many countries, leading to difficulties in recruiting additional mercenaries.

"There have been interesting reports in recent weeks that recruitment for the Africa Corps is stalling. There are online advertisements to encourage people to apply," she said.

Beverly Ochieng highlights a factor that, while still distant, could significantly impact the presence of mercenaries in Africa — the potential for peace in Russia's war in Ukraine. If peace were achieved, the personnel shortages might be resolved.

"It could be practical for Russia to expand the Africa Corps with contingents of fighters from the war in Ukraine instead of rehabilitating them and reintegrating them into society. But that remains to be seen, because peace itself is still a long way off," Ochieng explained.

This article has been translated from German