How Gavin Newsom loses every primary state in 2028

The Democratic National Committee this weekend reshuffled the opening rounds of its 2028 presidential primary — and Gavin Newsom probably shouldn’t be celebrating.

The new calendar sends Democratic presidential candidates through South Carolina, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Michigan and Virginia before the race broadens on Super Tuesday in early March 2028.

For Newsom, that’s quite an itinerary. In state after state, opponents will have a chance to take pieces of the California record he has spent seven years championing and introduce them to Democratic voters who may be considerably less enthusiastic.

That matters because Newsom is no longer the bright, shiny object he was a year ago.

He mastered the art of trolling Donald Trump when Trump was riding high. He became a fixture on national television and even more dominant on social media, especially X, where sparring with the president became a daily political performance.

But lately, national Democrats don’t seem nearly as excited about what Newsom is selling.

A July Emerson poll put Pete Buttigieg first at 19%, Newsom second at 17%, with Jon Ossoff and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 13%. In New Hampshire, AOC led at 22%, one point ahead of Buttigieg.

Trump’s approval ratings have fallen, too. Attacking an unpopular Trump isn’t much of a specialty act anymore. Plenty of Democrats can do it.

If Newsom had any influence over the new calendar, it sure doesn’t show.

January 22 — South Carolina

Newsom starts where Democratic voters are less progressive on transgender issues than California.

A Winthrop University poll found 54% of South Carolina Democrats favored requiring transgender athletes to compete according to their sex at birth.

California still allows biological males who identify as female to compete in girls’ sports. When that produces an unfair result, Newsom embraced a workaround adding qualifying spots or medals for displaced female athletes.

He also signed legislation protecting access to sex-change procedures for minors, while taxpayer-funded Medi-Cal covers hormone therapy and sex-change surgeries.

February 1 — Nevada

Nevadans don’t have to wonder what Newsom’s energy policies might mean. Californian policy can hit them at the pump.

Nevada gets much of its fuel from California. In 2024, Nevada Gov. Joe Lombardo and Democratic Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs warned Newsom that refinery rules could reduce supplies and raise gasoline prices in their states.

Welcome to Nevada, Governor. Let’s talk gas prices.

February 8 — New Hampshire

Next comes New Hampshire, where “Live Free or Die” still means something — including on energy.

Polling found 71% of New Hampshire Democrats favor an energy strategy combining renewables with natural gas.

California is heading the other way. Newsom’s regulators have pursued zero-emission standards for new furnaces and water heaters as part of a push to electrify buildings and move consumers away from natural gas.

Try selling forced electrification during a New Hampshire winter.

February 15 — New Mexico

Newsom directed California regulators to develop a plan to phase out oil extraction by 2045 and has repeatedly talked about moving California “beyond oil.”

New Mexico is America’s second-largest oil-producing state.

Democratic leaders there use the oil-and-gas bonanza to help finance education, healthcare, infrastructure and universal child care.

Newsom can explain why the industry helping pay for New Mexico Democrats’ agenda should eventually disappear.

February 22 — Michigan

Then Newsom reaches the auto capital.

He personally launched California’s effort to require all new passenger vehicles sold in the state to be zero-emission by 2035.

Michigan Democratic Sen. Elissa Slotkin thought California went too far. She was the only Senate Democrat to vote to overturn the mandate, citing more than one million Michiganders whose livelihoods depend on the auto industry.

Imagine Newsom explaining Sacramento’s vision of the car business in Detroit.

February 29 — Virginia

Finally comes Virginia, where Democratic voters are souring on subsidizing the massive data centers needed to power the AI boom.

A 2026 VCU poll found 73% of Virginia Democrats opposed maintaining the state’s sales-tax exemption for data centers.

Newsom has positioned California as the home of the AI revolution and vetoed a Democratic bill imposing new water-reporting requirements on data centers.

Then comes Super Tuesday on March 7, when the race broadens dramatically.

But Newsom first has to survive six states where parts of his California record could become liabilities.

Then, in January 2027, he loses the governorship — and the enormous platform that comes with it.

Meanwhile, Kamala Harris passed on running for governor, says she is considering another White House bid and continues building a national political presence.

Newsom faces a crowded field, a potential California rival and an opening calendar littered with pieces of his own record.

Newsom wanted California to be his calling card. It may become his baggage.

Jon Fleischman, a longtime strategist in California politics, writes at SoDoesItMatter.com.

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