How Will Markets React to $2.8B Crypto Options Expiring Today?

Approximately 21,600 Bitcoin options contracts will expire on Friday, Jan. 17, and they have a notional value of around $2.2 billion.

This week’s expiry event is slightly larger than last week’s, so it is unlikely to have any major impact on crypto markets. Bitcoin has bounced back from its dip to $90,000 and is trading back in six-figure territory again.

Bitcoin Options Expiry

This week’s batch of Bitcoin options contracts has a put/call ratio of 0.94, which means that bulls and bears are evenly matched with similar numbers of long (call) and short (put) contracts expiring.

Open interest, or the value or number of BTC options contracts yet to expire, is highest at the $120,000 strike price, which is increasing by $1.8 billion in OI, according to Deribit.

There is also over $1.3 billion in OI at the $110,000 and $1.2 billion at $110,000 strike prices, with derivatives speculators remaining bullish.

On Jan. 16, the team at crypto derivatives provider Greeks Live said they were “predominantly bullish,” with most traders expecting continuation toward $110,000, but there was some caution about overextension.

Key levels were major resistance at the all-time high of $108,000 and $99,000 as support, “with some disagreement on whether a pullback to $90,000 is possible in the near term.”

It added that multiple traders were holding $108K short calls for the January 24 expiry while acknowledging significant upside risk.

BTC OI by expiry. Source: Deribit

In a separate post, Greeks said that “the implied volatility (IV) differential between January and March has declined, with the market given to anticipating greater uncertainty as Trump nears his inauguration.”

Meanwhile, Deribit commented that the US PPI and CPI inflation data helped BTC spot markets climb higher on the macro front, adding that “the March $120,000 calls, bought when BTC was trading at $95,000, pushed IV higher as they were accumulated.”

In addition to today’s Bitcoin options, around 182,000 Ethereum contracts are expiring as well. These have a notional value of $617 million and a put/call ratio of 0.35. This brings Friday’s combined crypto options expiry notional value to around $2.8 billion.

Crypto Markets March Higher

Crypto market capitalization reached $3.73 trillion this Friday, primarily driven by Bitcoin, which gained 2% on the day.

BTC hit an intraday high of $102,000 during early trading in Asia on Friday morning, bringing its weekly gains to just under 10%.

Ethereum remained lackluster, failing to make any progress above $3,400 as the ETH/BTC ratio widened again.

Ripple’s XRP came within a whisker of its all-time high at $3.38, while Solana (SOL), Cardano (ADA), Hedera (HBAR), and Chainlink (LINK) were also performing well today.