Hurricane Simon Skirts Jalisco, Sinaloa Is Next

Hurricane Simon stayed off Jalisco’s coast on Sunday and weakened to Category 3. The risk now moves north, toward Nayarit and Sinaloa.

Where Simon Stands

Simon reached Category 4 on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale on Saturday 10 October. It peaked at about 250 km/h (155 mph) that evening, according to the US National Hurricane Center. By 6 p.m. Mexico City time on Sunday it was a Category 3 hurricane with winds of about 205 km/h (127 mph), Mexico’s weather service reported.

The forecast track shifted on Sunday. Mexican authorities had expected the centre to come ashore on the Jalisco coast. Instead it moved north-northwest, parallel to the shore.

What Is Next for Sinaloa and Nayarit

The hurricane centre’s advisory 19, issued at 03:00 UTC on Monday 12 October, expects Simon to keep moving north-west into early Tuesday. It then turns north-east and moves over west-central Mexico around midweek. Mexico’s weather service points to Sinaloa on Wednesday or Thursday as a tropical storm or a post-tropical system. A forecast this far ahead can move by tens of kilometres.

Nayarit closed its beaches and banned alcohol sales, El Financiero reported on 10 October. Authorities in Jalisco, Colima, Michoacán and Nayarit suspended non-essential activities and opened shelters. President Claudia Sheinbaum asked residents to stay indoors.

File photo: the Malecón seafront in Mazatlán, Sinaloa. It was taken on a cloudy day and does not show Simon’s effects.

What It Means for Visitors and Residents

If you live or travel on the coast of Jalisco, Nayarit or Sinaloa, follow the instructions of local civil protection offices. They decide on shelters, curfews and road closures.

Flights are the main practical problem. Puerto Vallarta airport was closed from 6 p.m. on Saturday, with a planned reopening at 8 a.m. on Monday. These times depend on safety inspections. Contact your airline before you go to the airport, and keep your hotel booking flexible if you can.

After the wind drops, heavy rain can still cause flooding and landslides in hilly areas. Our checklist for foreigners lists what to prepare.

What Prediction Markets Say

Polymarket prices Simon’s peak at Category 4 at 97.0% and Category 5 at about 3% (US$17,520 traded). Kalshi, regulated in the US by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), prices Category 5 or above at 7%. Stand: 12 October 2026, 00:45 ET.

Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.

What Is Not Known

We have not found an official count of damage or injuries from the Sunday bulletins. The latest hurricane centre bulletin we could read is advisory 19 (03:00 UTC on Monday 12 October), through a mirror page, so later changes are not included. We also do not know whether Puerto Vallarta airport will reopen on time.

The picture has two sides. Simon weakened and stayed off the coast, which lowered the wind risk for Jalisco. The rain and the track toward Sinaloa still need watching, and the eastern Pacific hurricane season runs to 30 November.

More on the region: Mexico hub. Related coverage: today’s LatAm Expat & Nomad Daily Guide, South America Holiday Closures on 12 October 2026 and Mexican Peso Falls Past 18.40 on Central Bank Minutes.