Ibovespa Falls 1.04% Before US Inflation Data | Morning Call, Oct 14

Brazil’s financial morning call. Foto: Zé Carlos Barretta.

Source: market close, 13 October 2026.

01 The setup in one read

Brazilian investors start Wednesday with the Ibovespa, the main B3 stock index, at 206,888 after a 1.04% fall on Tuesday. It was the first session since Monday’s holiday, and the index had closed Friday at 209,067.

The real lost 0.81% to 5.0273 per US dollar over the same period, from 4.9871. That is a move large enough to matter for importers, fuel prices and foreign investors holding Brazilian assets.

Two releases will frame the open. IBGE’s August services survey lands at 09:00 BRT, and US consumer prices for September follow at 09:30 BRT, with economists expecting inflation to rise to 3.6% a year.

02 Where Brazil is set to open

The table sets out the closing levels that frame the open. The Ibovespa and the real both ended Tuesday weaker, while Wall Street was almost flat.

Traders will watch whether the Ibovespa can hold above 206,000 after Tuesday’s drop. The real’s reaction to US inflation will set the tone for foreign flows.
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03 On the B3 radar today — services data and business confidence

The services survey measures how much Brazil’s service sector, from restaurants to transport, grew in August. It is the largest part of the economy, so the number feeds directly into rate expectations.

Business confidence is a secondary signal. The forecast is 44.0, down from 44.9, which would suggest companies are turning more cautious.

04 Copom and the macro backdrop

The Copom, Brazil’s rate-setting committee, is expected to keep easing. Polymarket gives a 25 basis-point cut 89.5% for its November decision.

That makes the services survey more important than usual. A strong number would suggest the economy still has momentum, which reduces the case for lower rates, while a weak one would add to the arguments for cuts.

The Selic is Brazil’s benchmark interest rate, and it drives how much companies and consumers pay to borrow. Lower rates tend to support stocks, especially rate-sensitive sectors such as real estate and retail.

US inflation matters here too, because a higher US reading would keep Treasury yields up. That narrows the room for emerging-market central banks to cut without hurting their currencies.

What Prediction Markets Say

• Selic, November decision: 25 bp cut 89.5%, 50 bp or larger cut 2.9% (Polymarket, US$56,879 traded)
• Selic, December decision: 25 bp cut 55.5%, 50 bp or larger cut 25.5% (Polymarket, US$24,202 traded)
• Brazil presidential election: Flávio Bolsonaro 86.0%, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 14.5% (Polymarket, US$181 million traded)

Prices are bets, not polls, and were read overnight on 13 October. Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.

05 Corporate stories to watch today

No company-specific events are confirmed on B3’s calendar for today. Machinery maker Romi reports its third-quarter results on 20 October.

That leaves the corporate tape quiet, with attention on the macro data. Investors positioning for earnings may start shifting into names they expect to report strong numbers.

Mining giant Vale is scheduled to report on 29 October, with state oil company Petrobras following on 10 November. Both dates are two to four weeks away.

06 The levels to watch at the open

The first level to watch is Tuesday’s close of 206,888 on the Ibovespa. A recovery above it at the open would suggest buyers are returning, while a slide below it would extend the fall from Friday’s 209,067.

For the real, the key level is 5.00 per dollar, which it crossed on Tuesday after closing at 4.9871 on Monday. A strong US inflation number could push it further toward the weaker end of its recent range.

Business confidence at 11:00 BRT is the last domestic data point of the morning, and it could reinforce or reverse any move from the services report.

07 What to watch

• IBGE services survey: The 09:00 BRT release is the main domestic catalyst for rate expectations and the real
• US consumer prices: The 09:30 BRT release, forecast at 3.6% a year, will steer the dollar and Treasury yields
• Business confidence: The 11:00 BRT reading will add to the growth picture and could shift sentiment
• Rate-sensitive B3 names: Banks, retailers and real estate stocks will move most on any shift in Selic bets

Background: Gold Fund Slips 0.37% as Silver Fund Drops 2.10%.

Background: Soy Fund Slips 0.51% as Wheat Fund Falls 0.74%.

More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Selic?

It is Brazil’s benchmark interest rate, set by the central bank’s Copom committee. It determines borrowing costs across the economy.

Why does the services survey matter?

Services make up the largest part of Brazil’s economy. The August survey shows whether growth is holding up, which directly affects rate expectations.

Why does US inflation matter for Brazil?

Higher US inflation tends to lift Treasury yields and the dollar. That can weaken the real and make it harder for Brazil’s central bank to keep cutting rates.

When does earnings season start?

Romi reports on 20 October, Vale on 29 October and Petrobras on 10 November.

Market data: RT

This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief

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