India and China's path to lasting border peace

After a five-year gap, India and China's special representatives decided to move forward with normalizing ties by resuming pilgrimages and border trade, while emphasizing the need to maintain peace and stability along their contentious border.

Pressing for a fair, reasonable and mutually acceptable settlement of the border dispute, India's National Security Advisor Ajit Doval and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi held extensive talks in Beijing on Wednesday. 

Special representatives talk, step forward

A meeting between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the BRICS summit in the Russian city of Kazan at the end of October set the ball rolling for addressing critical border concerns and effectively ending the over four-year border standoff in the region.

The two rivals have accused each other of trying to seize territory along their de facto border, known as the Line of Actual Control (LAC), which India claims is 3,488 kilometers (2,167 miles) long and China says is shorter.

In May 2020, a skirmish in the Galwan River valley resulted in the deaths of at least 20 Indian soldiers, with China later confirming four of its troops had been killed.

Since then, 21 corps commander-level talks and 32 meetings of the Working Mechanism for Consultation and Coordination on China-India Border Affairs have been held, signaling a potential thaw between the two Asian giants.

Both sides discuss broader issues

Following their meeting on Wednesday, the special representatives from the nuclear-armed neighbors "affirmed the implementation of the latest disengagement agreement of October 2024, resulting in patrolling and grazing in relevant areas," according to a statement from India's Foreign Ministry.

Wang and Doval said the two countries would strengthen cross-border exchanges, including the resumption of trips by Indian pilgrims to Tibet, a Chinese statement noted.

While there is optimism regarding the thaw in ties, some experts caution that China may be weighing its options carefully considering its long-term strategic interests especially considering geopolitical shifts and with Donald Trump's return to the US presidency.

Alka Acharya, honorary director of the Institute of Chinese Studies in New Delhi, said regional dynamics have witnessed very high levels of turbulence over the past few months and there are pervasive doubts regarding the likely policies of Trump amidst the tribulations of war and violence in a tumultuous world.

"It may be somewhat premature to describe the present phase as 'pivotal' — in the sense of a qualitative shift. There is certainly an incremental and cautious political and military process underway, in which we see an inbuilt path dependency," Acharya told DW.

High costs and distrust challenge border peace

Acharya pointed out that maintaining high numbers of boots on the ground in the border regions was undoubtedly imposing intolerable costs for both nations.

"Both sides have re-embarked on the long and winding road to normalcy," she said. "Trade, commerce, and engagement will infuse greater momentum, and societal and cultural rhythms will hopefully be given greater space. These could be the best foundation for addressing the unresolved issues."

While recent agreements and dialogues suggest a genuine attempt to mend relations, the underlying distrust stemming from past conflicts remains.

Some analysts have pointed out that the effectiveness of the latest diplomatic efforts will depend on both nations' commitment to maintaining dialogue and addressing security concerns without external pressures influencing their decisions.

"The special representatives meeting is important but it is one meeting in a series of meetings required to maintain lack of conflict on the LAC," Atul Kumar, a China expert and fellow at the Observer Research Foundation, told DW.

"Detente or peace and tranquillity on the LAC are too far in the future."

Talks highlight fundamental disagreements

Kumar pointed out that Wang insisted on the Chinese stand that India should resume broader bilateral engagements and leave the border issue aside.

"But for India, peace on the boundary is crucial and will facilitate normalization of bilateral relationship. This fundamental disconnect in their stands will take a long time to resolve," he added.

In Kumar's view, both sides need to hasten the frequency of these summits, talks and negotiations to achieve de-escalation along the LAC.

"Unless troops are de-inducted from eastern Ladakh, and the mode of patrol agreed in buffer zones, the situation will not move to normal. If nearly 120,000 troops remain on the LAC, both India and China are never too far from a skirmish, if not a conflict," added Kumar.

Next year will mark the 75th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and India, which provides a platform for reaffirming commitments to peace, cooperation, and mutual respect in an increasingly intricate global landscape.

Over the years, relations have vacillated between cooperation and conflict, influenced by border disputes, economic interactions, and broader geopolitical considerations.

Former Indian Foreign Secretary Harsh Vardhan Shringla told DW that the meeting of the special representatives signals a significant development.

"Further progress will be measured by tranquillity and peace on the borders. The process of normalization will now depend on how this is taken forward in a positive and constructive manner," said Shringla.

Edited by: Keith Walker