India: What can bring permanent peace to Manipur?

Ethnic tensions continue to simmer in India's northeastern Manipur state, despite efforts by the federal government to stabilize the restive region that has been beset by ethnic violence for nearly two years.

In May 2023, long-standing grievances between Manipur's Meitei and Kuki communities erupted into violence, which has so far claimed over 250 lives and displaced more than 50,000 people. The majority Meitei live predominantly in Manipur's Imphal valley, while the Kuki populate the surrounding hill regions.

The violence started after the Meiteis demanded official tribal status, which comes along with privileges like job quotas and land rights. The Kuki fear becoming further marginalized if the Meitei secure this status.

India's federal government has split the state into two exclusive ethnic zones, separated by a buffer that central security forces patrol — a measure that reduced violence but failed to put an end to it.

In a sign of continued dysfunction in Manipur, an attempt by the federal government to ensure free movement of traffic on highways was blocked after a Kuki council said it was strongly opposed to unrestricted free movement of goods and people in their areas. 

"We will continue to oppose unrestricted free movement of people across ethnic buffer zones, as it undermines justice until our demand for a separate administration is met," a senior member of the council, told DW on condition of anonymity.

Peace in Manipur remains elusive

In February, India's government again imposed "president's rule" on the restive state, a constitutional provision which takes power away from the state government in times of crisis.

The imposition of direct rule came after Chief Minister Biren Singh, a Meitei from the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), resigned after failing to resolve the conflict and amid allegations from Kuki groups of preferential treatment of Meiteis.

However, the promise of peace that came with the federal government's direct control over Manipur remains elusive.

While most violence has been under control since the imposition of president's rule, there is consensus among observers that lasting peace hinges on sustained neutral mediation involving representatives from both Meitei and Kuki communities, as well as Naga groups, who share the state's hill regions. 

"The problem can only be resolved by adopting fairness and impartiality in the peace process, which the government seems to deliberately overlook," Janghaolun Haokip, a social activist, told DW. 

"Unless there are equitable resource-sharing or federal arrangements, the problem will not go away and complicates reconciliation. The problem also lies in the government's indifferent approach towards the rights and privileges of minorities," Haokip added.

In a recent report, the International Crisis Group, an independent non-profit, said that finding a sustainable way out of the crisis will require addressing the root causes of ethnic tension, and New Delhi should initiate negotiations by establishing a peace committee acceptable to both communities. 

"Unable to bring the unrest under control, the central government has informally partitioned the state, with security forces patrolling the buffer zone separating the two groups," the report said.

"This delay in addressing the stalemate has allowed the state's militant groups, which had been facing terminal decline, to come back stronger. If not addressed soon, the Manipur conflict could rumble on, deepening the state's ethnic divide and causing a dangerous ripple effect in neighbouring states," it added.

According to various estimates published in Indian media, militant factions in Imphal have amassed a vast array of stolen arms, including over 6,000 firearms and ammunition rounds looted from police armories since 2023. Just a fraction of it has been returned.

What is perpetuating the conflict?

Pradip Phanjoubam, editor of the Imphal Review of Arts and Politics who has been chronicling events since the conflict broke out, believes that vested interests benefit from continuance of the conflict.  

"Populist leaders built their constituencies through sectarian and selfishly divisive politics and now do not know how to beat the conflict trap," Phanjoubam told DW. 

Phanjoubam reckons that in continuing the conflict, warring sides might preserve their leverage to secure gains, especially if they believe a resolution favoring peace could dilute their claims or bargaining power. 

"Economic gain, political power and resource control can perpetuate conflicts. And this is what is happening," he said. 

Political scientist Bidhan Laishram told DW "it would not be wrong to say that there are elements or forces that are interested in keeping the pot boiling."

"The fast-evolving dynamics and equations in Myanmar and the geo-strategic interests of various countries is exacerbating the ethnic crisis in Manipur," added Laishram.

The Myanmar effect

Myanmar's conflict, just across the border from Manipur, has complicated the situation further by driving irregular immigration, as well as drug and arms smuggling into the region.

Manipur's political instability has always been tied to Myanmar due to the kinship ties that span the porous frontier, but the impact has been particularly visible over the past year. 

"The prolonged crisis in Manipur is a result of geopolitical calculations, state inaction, and the unchecked expansion of insurgent networks. Without a shift in policy and enforcement mechanisms, the situation is likely to deteriorate further," Khuraijam Athouba, spokesperson for the Coordinating Committee on Manipur Integrity (COCOMI), told DW. COCOMI is an activist collective of Meitei groups. 

"Despite overwhelming evidence of cross-border infiltration and drug cartel involvement, the Indian government has failed to take decisive action against these groups. The lack of a clear counterinsurgency strategy and political considerations have allowed the crisis to persist," added Athouba. 

Edited by: Wesley Rahn