Indiana vs. North Texas Prediction, Odds, Pick For College Football Week 1

By Fox Sports | Created at 2026-09-05 04:47:09 | Updated at 2026-09-05 05:42:28 1 hour ago

The defending national champion Indiana Hoosiers will host the North Texas Mean Green on Saturday in a Week 1 Big Noon Kickoff college football matchup on FOX.

What a year it was for the Hoosiers in 2025.

In Year 2 under Curt Cignetti, Indiana completed a perfect 16-0 season and won the first national championship in program history. The Hoosiers led the country in scoring differential (+29.9 PPG) and total points scored (666), while allowing just 11.7 points per game and going 6-0 against AP Top-15 opponents.

Indiana’s dominance was built on elite efficiency on both sides of the ball. The Hoosiers led the FBS in third-down conversion percentage (56.5%) and turnover margin (+21), ranked second in rushing defense (77.2 YPG allowed), scoring defense (11.7 PPG allowed) and sacks (46), and finished in the top four nationally in total defense (266.0 YPG allowed, fourth) and scoring offense (41.6 PPG, third).

But Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza is gone, along with seven other players who were selected in the NFL Draft. TCU transfer Josh Hoover will take the reins as Indiana’s starting quarterback this fall after arriving as one of the highest-rated transfer quarterbacks in the country.

In 13 games with the Horned Frogs last season, Hoover completed 272 of 413 passes (65.9%) for 3,472 yards, 29 touchdowns and 13 interceptions.

Meanwhile, North Texas is coming off a historic season of its own. The Mean Green went 12-2 and narrowly missed out on a College Football Playoff berth while leading the country in total offense (512.4 YPG) and scoring offense (45.1 PPG).

However, head coach Eric Morris left for Oklahoma State and took 19 players with him, including quarterback Drew Mestemaker, who led the country in passing.

So, how much of a step back should we expect from the Mean Green? And what do the Hoosiers have in store for an encore after their perfect season?

Let’s take a look at the odds for Indiana vs. North Texas at FanDuel Sportsbook as of Sept. 5.

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Spread

Indiana -40.5: -110 (bet $10 to win $19.09 total)
North Texas +40.5: -110 (bet $10 to win $19.09 total)

Over/Under

Over 55.5: -110 (bet $10 to win $19.09 total)
Under 55.5: -110 (bet $10 to win $19.09 total)

From FOX Sports Research:

This is the only Week 1 matchup featuring two teams that won 10+ games last season, as North Texas and Indiana combined for 28 wins in 2025. However, both teams will look a whole lot different in 2026. North Texas added more than 50 transfers and has 75 new faces on its roster. And to add even more intrigue to this matchup, the Mean Green announced Tayven Jackson as the Week 1 starting quarterback. Jackson appeared in 25 games and made six starts for Indiana — five in 2023 and one in 2024 — completing 61.2% of passes for 1,263 yards, six touchdowns and six interceptions while adding four rushing scores. He then transferred to UCF, where he started 10 games last season and completed 63.5% of passes for 2,151 yards, 10 touchdowns and eight interceptions, along with three rushing touchdowns. There will be plenty of familiarity here for Cignetti, who coached Jackson in 2024. The Hoosiers went 10-6 against the spread last season but were only 4-3 ATS as a home favorite. If there is anyone who can prevent a post-national championship letdown, it’s Cignetti. And against a North Texas team that essentially lost its entire roster from a season ago, take the Hoosiers to cover the huge spread.