Interactive: What Does It Take to Score a Goal in a World Cup Final?

We look back at every goal scored in a men’s World Cup final to see what it takes to score in the biggest game of them all.

The World Cup final is the biggest game in football.

Some might believe other games at club level are a greater proof of ability, but there is no comparison when it comes to prestige. The World Cup final only comes around every four years, and is watched by an eye-watering number of people.

Those of us who have never played sport to a professional level will never fully understand the feeling. Some of us get nervous answering a tie-break question at a pub quiz, cooking a steak properly, or accurately reading our analogue watch when a stranger asks for the time.

Even for the best of the best, playing in a World Cup final must get the nerves jangling. Finals are usually tight affairs at the best of times. Both teams are so petrified of losing, and it’s quite rare to see a team or individual putting in a calm and assured performance. Imagine how it must feel in the biggest of finals.

What does it take to score a goal in a World Cup final, though?

Ahead of Sunday’s clash between Spain and Argentina, we’ve looked back at the goals scored in every men’s World Cup final from 1966 onwards (from when Opta has detailed data).

Using our interactive goal map below, you can see where each goal was scored from, and what the expected goal (xG) value of each one was.

You can look at all of them together, or use the dropdown menu to select any final since 1966, then hover over each goal to bring up the details of the shot.

In total, there have been 80 goals scored across 21 men’s World Cup finals (not including 1950, where there wasn’t a standalone final), an average of 3.8 per game. Some of the earlier finals are doing quite a bit of the heavy lifting there, though; there were 31 goals scored across the first six finals (avg. of 5.2 per game).

From the 1966 final to 2022, there were 49 goals scored across 15 men’s World Cup finals, an average of 3.3 per game.

That is higher than the general average for World Cup matches (2.6 goals per game, since 1966), but it should be noted that seven men’s World Cup finals have gone to extra-time.

What does it take to score in the showpiece event, though? We can look at how players have performed against xG since 1966 to get a rough idea.

When looking at xG, we can discount own goals as those do not carry an xG value. However, there has only been one own goal in a World Cup final since 1966, scored by Croatia for France in 2018 (sorry, Mario Mandzukić).

Across the last 15 men’s World Cup finals, the total xG from all shots is 57.6. Removing the own goal from 2018, that means that 48 goals have been scored from that xG total. In other words, players have combined to underperform their xG by 9.6 goals.

There have been 491 shots attempted in men’s World Cup finals since 1966 (32.7 per game). Those shots have had an average xG value of 0.12, though the average goals per shot is just 0.10.

This, of course, could be down to any number of things. One theory could be that players are underperforming when it comes to finishing because of the intensely nerve-wracking scenario, and possibly also inspired goalkeeper performances. You may ask why goalkeepers wouldn’t also shrink with nerves in a final, but we all know they’re wired slightly differently.

As for the xG of individual shots, as you can see from our interactive above, the vast majority have been from quite close range. Players obviously want to be in the best position possible before trying to write their name in history, and just five of the 49 goals scored in the last 15 finals were from outside the penalty area.

There have been eight penalties (excluding shootouts) scored in that time, each with an xG of 0.79, but those were not the highest xG values for a World Cup final goal.

That goes to Lionel Messi’s tap-in for Argentina against France in 2022. In extra-time, Messi nudged the loose ball in after Hugo Lloris had spilled Lautaro Martínez’s shot to put his country 3-2 up. The xG value on that right-footed effort was a whopping 0.86, though it still only just crossed the line as Jules Koundé was unable to clear it in time.

The lowest xG value of a goal in a men’s World Cup final since 1966? That is a tie between Gerson’s left-footed strike from distance for Brazil against Italy in the iconic 1970 final, and Kylian Mbappé’s goal from even further out against Croatia in 2018. Both were given an xG value of just 0.03.

It is appropriate that Mbappé jointly holds that honour, with the Frenchman having scored more men’s World Cup final goals than anyone else (four), though he was denied the chance to play in a third final when France were beaten by Spain in the 2026 semi-finals on Tuesday.

Messi will be there, though, after Argentina came from behind to beat England on Wednesday. The 39-year-old will be looking to win a second World Cup, and add to the two goals he scored in the 2022 final.

What will it take to score on Sunday? Nerves will no doubt be everywhere, but someone will step up to win the World Cup for their country and cement their legacy.

You can blame us when it finishes 0-0.

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