Iran's chilling midterm gamble against Trump revealed as insiders warn regime is 'playing with fire'

Iran plans to ramp up aggression in the Strait of Hormuz to ratchet pressure on Donald Trump ahead of the midterm elections, according to Tehran insiders and foreign policy experts.

Trump conceded last week that the US was now 'low-keying' peace talks with Iran after a ceasefire deal collapsed.

Now with less than three months until the midterm elections Trump's poll numbers are under threat from gas at a national average of over $4 per gallon with no end in sight.

Former US diplomat Jonathan Wachtel told the Daily Mail that 'Iranian leaders carefully study both American military capabilities and political calendars.'

Two Iranian sources familiar with Tehran's planning confirmed that the midterms are a key pressure point that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps will hope to exploit.

Retired General Jack Keane said that Iran is gambling on Trump being unwilling to restart major military action ahead of November. 

'My gut feel is that they're likely going to get more aggressive because they don't believe the President will do much prior to the midterms in terms of military actions,' Keane told Fox News.

But Keane warned that Tehran has already 'miscalculated' Trump repeatedly, adding that the President is 'totally capable of shutting them down once and for all and crushing [them] with the ability that he has literally at his fingertips.'

Wachtel agreed 'this is a high–risk gamble,' adding that 'major confrontations often begin when one side misunderstands the other's willingness to respond.' 

Jonathan Schanzer, executive director at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told the Daily Mail: 'The regime understands that this war is not wildly popular with segments of the Republican Party and much of the American left.

'Oil prices and the reported munitions crisis have added to Trump's political challenges.'

Schanzer warned, however, that Tehran's strategy could backfire catastrophically: 'The regime believes it can exacerbate those problems by maintaining the current course or even escalating.

'The question for the regime is: at what cost? The regime is brittle, bankrupt and weak. By extending the crisis or escalating, the risk of regime collapse is real. They are playing with fire.'

Trump claimed earlier this week that the US currently has 'total' control of the Strait of Hormuz, even as oil prices remain sky high.

Iran has meanwhile claimed it maintains the upper hand in the conflict, seizing on recent reports that Trump secretly switched planes to avoid an assassination threat as he departed last month's NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey. 

The Islamic Republic's embassy in South Africa posted a graphic depicting Trump inside a catering box alongside food items. The embassy's official X account – which is verified on its website and frequently produces viral content highlighted by Iranian state news – warned that Trump 'will be hidden in a trash can before long.'

Iranian state television also targeted the incident, labeling it a 'humiliation' for the president.

'Again, Trump, with his new scandal, has become the top subject in the US media these days,' a state TV presenter declared. 'A scandal stemming from fear of Iran's military power, a power that caused Trump, last month, while returning from Turkey, to secretly switch his plane.'

Tehran forcefully rejected Trump's assertions of American dominance in the region, maintaining that the strategic choke point operates strictly under Iranian authority.

Hossein Taeb, head of Iran's Basij paramilitary unit, asserted today that the Strait of Hormuz remains under the direct 'management and control' of the Islamic Republic, adding that Iran is continuing its naval operations in complete security.

Taeb claimed the US had sought to disrupt Iran's regional popularity by launching another war in the Strait, but insisted Washington had failed once again despite claiming Iran possessed neither an air force nor a navy.

Trump, however, doubled down in a post on Truth Social, declaring that the US would 'keep' control of the vital shipping lane, describing the American naval blockade as a 'Wall of steel' and insisting there was 'nothing Iran can do about it.'

Trump further claimed that Iran has 'no Navy' and 'no Air Force,' that its remaining soldiers go unpaid, and that the country's leadership remains 'uncertain, at best.'