Iran's hardline mullahs 'are considering attacks on European military targets' if Trump escalates war

Iran is weighing up attacking US military targets in Europe should Donald Trump escalate the war, according to a report.

Two Islamic Republic insiders told the Financial Times that Iranian forces have assessed striking American assets in south-eastern European countries such as Bulgaria, which last month approved the use of its Bezmer air base for US refuelling aircraft.

Cyprus, where a British air base was hit by a drone in March, was also among potential targets for retaliation, one of the insiders added.

The regime has also been considering attacking subsea fibre-optic cables in the Strait of Hormuz in the event of an escalation.

The threats showcase the defiant mood in Tehran, where hardline mullahs increasingly view a resumption of the war as a matter of inevitability.

Negotiations to reopen the vital strait have come to a halt, while Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei last week installed a string of veteran military and security hardliners in some of the country's most powerful positions.

The US president on Tuesday said there were 'no talks or conversations going on, or scheduled' with Tehran. 

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and other military commanders have warned that, in any new full-scale conflict, Tehran would stretch beyond its previous tactics of attacking US military assets and energy infrastructure in the Middle East to targets further afield.

Last month, the IRGC warned the UK against allowing America to use British military bases, saying that 'any base that is used to launch an attack on Iranian territory will be considered a legitimate target'.

The threat posed by Iranian missiles to targets in Europe and elsewhere is 'real, but limited', according to Sidharth Kaushal, a research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute think-tank in London. 

Tehran could deploy medium-range ballistic missiles against US assets in southern and southeastern Europe, such as its Shahab series, but Kaushal told the FT that these would struggle to do damage at longer ranges. 

The insiders said that Iran’s retaliation would depend on Washington’s military decisions.

One said the regime was preparing a plan to expand the war further were Trump to follow through on previous threats to attack Iranian infrastructure. 

'Any ​time the Islamic Republic of Iran ⁠shoots at a ship in the Strait ​of Hormuz, whether it be by Missile, Rocket, ​Drone, or any other device or weapon, the United States will bomb and destroy ONE BRIDGE OR ​POWER PLANT, including those located next ​to, or in, the Capital City of Tehran,' the US president said ⁠in a post on Truth Social last month. 

The second insider said Tehran would place 'no limits' on its retaliation in the event of American aggression. 

'Should the US go too far, Iran will defend itself at any price, go beyond the region and hit Europe too,' the person said.

Following the outbreak of the war in February, Iran demonstrated its willingness to attack distant targets.

In the weeks after the conflict began, Washington accused Tehran of unleashing multiple missiles — none of which reached their target — at Diego Garcia, a joint US-UK military base in the Indian Ocean some 4,000km away. 

In March, Turkey said NATO's air defences had intercepted multiple ballistic missiles launched from Iran.

Meanwhile, the UK’s air base in Akrotiri, Cyprus, was hit by a drone the same month. 

At the time, Western officials said they believed it was an Iranian drone fired by regional proxy forces rather than Tehran itself. 

According to the insiders, the Iranian attack last month on the American base in Jordan, which killed three US service members, was the most precise long-range attack the regime has carried out and demonstrated its capability to strike targets over longer distances.

'This was also a message to Europe: it can receive missiles, so it should know where it should stand in this war,' the first insider said.   

'A very big mistake, such as hitting our infrastructure, could make the war go beyond the region and reach Europe.'

The June memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran crumbled last month after Tehran attacked ships in the strait and both sides accused each other of violating the interim deal, leading to rounds of tit-for-tat attacks and a renewed American blockade on Iranian ports. 

Weeks of diplomatic efforts have failed to bring about a breakthrough to reopen the maritime chokepoint and resume negotiations over a broader deal to end the conflict.

Trump has become increasingly frustrated over the stalemate. 

According to Kaushal, the regime could deploy heavier-duty missiles, but these would have to carry a lighter payload to travel far enough — meaning damage would be limited.

He said 'it would be more fruitful for them to work through proxies', which include militant organisations such as Shia militias in Iraq, Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen.

'Those strikes they attempted on Diego Garcia this year are kind of indicative that they have got weapons with ranges greater than 2,000km,' said Douglas Barrie at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

'How many of these they actually hold is a different question, and whether or not they would be willing to use even a handful to make some kind of grandstanding statement is an open question.

'The risk is that the missiles fail or are shot down, so how would they benefit? The longer the range, the harder it is to be really accurate,' he said.

There are some members of the Iranian regime who believe that Tehran is overplaying its hand. Many hardliners think Washington cannot be trusted to implement any peace process, and Tehran must inflict a greater cost on the US to ensure it meets its obligations of any final settlement.

Last week, Khamenei appointed one of these hardliners — Mohsen Rezaei — a former IRGC commander, as a top security official.

Iranian experts interpreted the decision as a sign that figures such as Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the country’s top negotiator, have been pushed to the sidelines for now, as prospects for a lasting peace deal appear increasingly unlikely.

Tehran 'is sending a clear message that if you don’t reach an agreement with Ghalibaf, you have to deal with Rezaei', the second insider added.

'The message is: "Don’t be mad, because I’m madder than you are."'