By Opta Analyst | Created at 2026-06-15 11:03:39 | Updated at 2026-06-16 11:11:55
1 day ago
Can Iraq stop Erling Haaland? Look ahead to Iraq vs Norway in Group I at the 2026 FIFA World Cup with our match prediction and preview.
Iraq vs Norway: The Key Insights
- Norway are regarded as clear favourites to win this match, coming out on top in 77.4% of the Opta supercomputer’s 25,000 simulations.
- Norway were one of two teams to win 100% of their qualifiers in the UEFA section (8/8), alongside England. They also scored 4.6 goals per game (37 goals in 8 matches), the best average ever for any European nation in a single FIFA World Cup qualifying campaign with 4+ matches.
- Iraq were the 48th and final team to qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup, playing 21 qualifying matches to reach the tournament, more than any other side. They secured their place via the inter-confederation play-offs, beating Bolivia 2-1 in Mexico.
Iraq and Norway both return to the FIFA World Cup fold on Tuesday in a match likely to be determined by one key question: can Iraq stop Erling Haaland?
Haaland feels almost scientifically engineered to dominate on the international stage, and his staggering return of 55 goals in 50 games for Norway says as much. Yet he has never before had the chance to showcase his talents at a major tournament; Norway’s last such appearance came at Euro 2000, which ended 21 days before Haaland was born.
After several failed qualifying campaigns, though, Norway look to have clicked into gear, with a talent-packed squad finally realising its potential.
They were perhaps the dominant side across all of World Cup qualifying, winning all eight of their games while scoring an astonishing 37 goals in the process. England were the only other European team to win every match they played.
Meanwhile, Norway’s scoring rate of 4.6 goals per game was the best-ever average for any European nation in a single World Cup qualifying campaign with more than four games played.
Martin Ødegaard was a key contributor, notching a UEFA-high seven assists, and he was well supported by the likes of Alexander Sørloth, Antonio Nusa and Julian Ryerson. But Haaland was no doubt the headliner, scoring 16 goals during qualifying – twice as many as any player for a European nation.
His exploits helped fire Norway back to the top table of international football, and it’s been a long time coming. This is their first World Cup since 1998, when they were eliminated in the round of 16 by Italy, with current head coach Ståle Solbakken appearing off the bench.
They also appeared at the 1994 tournament, the only previous edition hosted in the United States, but were eliminated in extraordinary fashion. All four teams in their group finished level on points and goal difference, still the only instance of its kind in World Cup history. Norway, however, ended up bottom due to scoring the fewest goals. It’s hard to imagine that being an issue for them this year with Haaland leading the line.
Norway are joined in Group I by France, Senegal and their opponents for this match, Iraq, who are understandably regarded as unlikely to fare well in such a loaded group, officially the hardest as per the Opta Power Rankings.
The Opta supercomputer rates their chances of reaching the knockout stages at 20.5%, some distance behind France (95.6%), Norway (87.0%) and Senegal (60.9%).
Iraq’s secret weapon is perhaps the experience of head coach Graham Arnold, who guided Australia to the knockout stages of the 2022 World Cup in Qatar. The Socceroos finished second behind France on goal difference in a group that also featured Tunisia and Denmark. They were eliminated in the round of 16 by eventual champions Argentina and more than held their own in a 2-1 defeat.
His Australia side also set a record in the lead-up to the 2022 tournament when winning 11 consecutive games during qualifying.
Qualification for the 2026 edition was a little more complicated for Arnold. Iraq were the 48th and final team to qualify for the 2026 World Cup, playing 21 qualifying matches to reach the tournament, more than any other team. They secured their place via the inter-confederation play-offs, beating Bolivia 2-1 in Mexico.
They will be desperate to improve on their record from their only previous World Cup appearance in 1986, when they lost all three of their group matches. Halting Norway’s imperious attack, led by Haaland, will be their first challenge.
Iraq vs Norway Head-to-Head
This will be the first ever meeting between Iraq and Norway. It will also be Norway’s first match against a member of the AFC confederation at the FIFA World Cup.
Iraq vs Norway Prediction
The Opta supercomputer is confident of a Norway win here, with Solbakken’s side starting the tournament with a win in 77.4% of its 25,000 simulations.
The next-most likely result is a draw at 14.0%. Meanwhile, Iraq are regarded as having a 8.6% chance of earning a shock win.
Iraq vs Norway Squads
Iraq: Fahad Talib, Jalal Hassan, Ahmed Basil, Rebin Sulaka, Hussein Ali, Zaid Tahseen, Akam Hashim, Munaf Younus, Ahmed Maknzi, Merchas Doski, Mustafa Saadoon, Frans Putros, Ibrahim Bayesh, Zidane Iqbal, Amir Al Ammari, Kevin Yakob, Aimar Sher, Marko Farji, Zaid Ismael, Youssef Amyn, Ali Al Hamadi, Mohanad Ali, Ahmed Qasem, Ali Yousif, Ali Jasim, Aymen Hussein.
Norway: Ørjan Nyland, Sander Tangvik, Egil Selvik, Kristoffer Ajer, Leo Østigård, David Møller Wolfe, Fredrik Bjørkan, Marcus Pedersen, Torbjørn Heggem, Sondre Langås, Henrik Falchener, Julian Ryerson, Morten Thorsby, Patrick Berg, Sander Berge, Martin Ødegaard, Fredrik Aursnes, Kristian Thorstvedt, Thelo Aasgaard, Antonio Nusa, Oscar Bobb, Jens Petter Hauge, Alexander Sørloth, Erling Haaland, Jørgen Strand Larsen, Andreas Schjelderup.
Iraq vs Norway Predicted Lineups
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