Is North Korea's war rhetoric backed by real threats?

The belligerent rhetoric of the North Korean regime has risen to new highs in recent days, with Kim Jong Un publicly calling on the military to prepare for war and for the nation's nuclear capabilities to be developed "without limitation."

State media KCNA on Monday quoted Kim as telling senior military and political officers of the Korean People's Army that the nation's enemies are stepping up "frantic" confrontations with North Korea.

"We will strengthen our self-defense power, centered on nuclear forces, without limitations … and ceaselessly," KCNA reported Kim as saying in his address.

He also criticized recent security cooperation between South Korea, the US and Japan — describing their trilateral alliance as a threat to peace and stability in the region.

Kim accused Washington and the West of using Ukraine as a proxy war to fight Russia and expand their global military dominance.

A KCNA editorial published on Tuesday said Pyongyang reserved the right to carry out "retaliatory responses," adding, "The miserable fates of those who took the first step toward trilateral cooperation demonstrate that the 'era of trilateral cooperation' is a grim era with no future."

Not crossing any red lines

While analysts say that the region needs to be vigilant and closely monitor the movements of the North's armed forces, the sense is that Pyongyang is aware that it remains militarily inferior to the alliance of South Korea and the US and does not intend to cross any red lines or provoke a full-scale conflict.

Kim Jong Un has ordered the 'mass production' of suicide attack drones, state media reported on November 15Image: KCNA VIA KNS/AFP

They caution, however, that there is always the possibility of a small-scale clash that could result from a misunderstanding on the tense North-South border quickly escalating into something more serious, particularly when the two sides are not communicating. 

"I am not too concerned about things boiling over at the moment, especially if Kim is sending munitions and military personnel to Ukraine to help Russia," said Dan Pinkston, a professor of international relations at the Seoul campus of Troy University.

"I do not think he would want a fight here now, so that means the angry rhetoric we are seeing at the moment is being used to intimidate the South and its allies in the democratic world," he told DW.

Equally, the North Korean regime's strong support for everything that Russia does on the international stage is designed to reinforce the image of a powerful political and military alliance that enemies should not attempt to test, Pinkston added.

"And while we do not know what is going on in Pyongyang, it is a feature of these kind of regimes that when they feel threatened or are experiencing some form of internal instability, we often see them engage in this sort of saber-rattling to stoke tension and fear at home and have their people rally around the flag," he said.

Business as usual in South Korea

Among ordinary South Koreans, it appears to be business as usual.

"I do not really worry because we have seen this all before," said Eunkoo Lee, joint founder of a Seoul-based NGO that helps North Korean defectors settle in the South. "We are used to these tensions."

Eunkoo lives in the city of Ilsan, which is northwest of Seoul and only about 20 kilometers (12 miles) from the border with North Korea. Road signs in the area still give distances to Pyongyang, even though the border is firmly sealed.

"We often receive notifications from the government about how we need to be careful in case something happens and how we need to be ready to move, but relations with the North have always been difficult so nobody really thinks about it too much," she told DW.

Balloons and border tensions

North Korea has sent thousands of balloons carrying bags of trash — including cigarette butts, plastic bottles and old clothes — across the border.

Lee described them as a minor inconvenience that caused limited damage, dismissing them as futile for propaganda purposes. Her defector friends agreed, saying the balloons have little impact. 

They are hearing through their underground North Korean networks that the balloons sent by human rights groups into the North with medicines, small amounts of food, money and memory sticks with news and TV programs from the South are having an impact on North Korean society.

The fact that Pyongyang is so desperate to stop the balloons and is punishing anyone found in possession of foreign media so severely indicates that it is worried, they say.

North Korea 'posturing'

The defectors agree that much of the North's threats amount to posturing.

And while Pinkston is relatively confident that Kim's military is not presently willing to challenge the South, that may not hold true in a few years.

"Things could be very different in just three or four years," he said. "There is concern that Russia is providing the North with a lot of advanced military technology and that their forces in Kursk are learning important battlefield skills."

Experts warn that political shifts in Washington could weaken US support for South Korea — leaving the South more vulnerable to a militarily strengthened North.

Edited by: Keith Walker