Israel weighs ground invasion of Lebanon amid escalating Hezbollah threats

Israel is considering a ground invasion of Lebanon due to escalating Hezbollah threats, despite ongoing diplomatic efforts and potential risks.

By YONAH JEREMY BOB SEPTEMBER 24, 2024 19:05 Updated: SEPTEMBER 24, 2024 19:27

Israel's Air Force strikes Lebanon, 22 September 2024 (photo credit: SCREENSHOT/X, SECTION 27A COPYRIGHT ACT)

banon to then attacking its long-range threats in the Bekaa Valley to attacking its top commanders in Beirut repeatedly – seem to have just brought on greater fire from Hassan Nasrallah.

Even more worrying, Nasrallah has also made his escalation gradual.

He has not yet tried to target Tel Aviv and central Israel – holding these out as threats hovering over Israel should it attack Beirut or try a ground invasion.

The main reasons that Israel is more likely to do a ground invasion now than last week or at any earlier time in the war are that:

1. It is running out of other escalation cards to stop Hezbollah’s rocket fire.
2. the risk of going all out with a very weakened Hezbollah seems much lower now than it seemed a week ago.
3. Israel has given the US 11 months for diplomacy with Hezbollah without achieving anything, such that it may have more slack from Washington to go all-in than it would have last October or even six months ago.

Of course, even a ground invasion does not necessarily mean one option.

The Post has learned that if the IDF carries out a ground invasion, while all options are on the table, its first choice would likely be to take over a security zone in southern Lebanon to eliminate short-range rocket fire and have a chip to bargain with to get Hezbollah to remain out of the area.

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah speaks, August 5, 2023 (credit: SHUTTERSTOCK)

It would only likely broaden the invasion if Hezbollah started to succeed in ravaging the home front with longer-range rockets embedded deeper in Lebanon – in which case part of taking them out could require a deeper invasion.

When would this happen?

If last week, the deadline for a major escalation and invasion seemed like mid-October to try to finish most of it before November and the mountainous Lebanese winter kicks in, the past week’s events may have moved up the clock.

It is hard to see Israel allowing Hezbollah to shut down a third of the country and Haifa all the way until mid-October without upping the ante to an invasion.

Whether the invasion is days away or if we might still wait a couple of weeks to get greater buy-in from the US for last-minute diplomatic efforts, probably no one knows due to how dynamic the situation is.

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It is key to remember that invasion is not an end in itself.

There is no scenario where the IDF will occupy all of Lebanon for a year like it has Gaza. This would not be possible militarily, diplomatically, or economically.

So, in all scenarios, Israel will eventually need to cut a deal with Hezbollah. It is just a question of when and who has the upper hand on the terms. The last question is whether Israel will manage to separate a Hezbollah deal from a deal with Hamas or whether the sheer volume of rockets that Hezbollah has, along with its religious commitment – even after it is mostly “beaten” - will eventually force Jerusalem into a deal with Hamas in order to end the threat in the North.