By Free Republic | Created at 2024-09-26 15:20:42 | Updated at 2024-10-01 04:28:10
4 days ago
J.L. Partners Election Model: Donald Trump Soars to 10-Point Lead
Breitbart ^ | 09/26/2024 | Wendell Husebø
Posted on 09/26/2024 7:40:45 AM PDT by ChicagoConservative27
The probability former President Donald Trump will defeat Vice President Kamala Harris soared to a 10-point spread, a J.L. Partners election model revealed Thursday.
The forecast indicates Harris’s so-called honeymoon since joining the 2024 White House race in July appears over as the model found Trump’s probability increased four points since Monday and nine points since the debate.
The model simulated the course of the election around 8,000 times and created a probability of each candidate winning a state and then the probability the candidates win the Electoral College.
The Daily Mail’s Rob Crilly reported on the finding:
But state-by-state numbers all show the Blue Wall of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan tilting towards Trump, giving him the overall advantage when it comes to winning the White House.
It gives him a 55.2 percent chance of victory. Harris is on 44.6 percent, with a very small chance of a tie.
The best way to understand what it all means is to imagine running the model multiple times with all the different permutations and combinations for all the different states. When all of those are run, Trump wins on average 55.2 percent of the time.
(Excerpt) Read more at breitbart.com ...
TOPICS: Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Michigan; US: Pennsylvania; US: Wisconsin; Your Opinion/Questions
KEYWORDS: 2024election; election; election2024; jlpartners; michigan; model; partners; pennsylvania; trump; wisconsin
Click here: to donate by Credit Card
Or here: to donate by PayPal
Or by mail to: Free Republic, LLC - PO Box 9771 - Fresno, CA 93794
Thank you very much and God bless you.
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-20, 21-37 next last
Could this really be?
To: ChicagoConservative27
WHo will the dems select to take her place? Big Mike?
2 posted on 09/26/2024 7:43:44 AM PDT by kvanbrunt2 (H)
To: ChicagoConservative27
Even more sad is that there is a race at all. Says a lot about ‘no/low info’ voters. Now, funny cat tic tok reels......
3 posted on 09/26/2024 7:44:37 AM PDT by rktman (Destroy America from within? Check! WTH? Enlisted USN 1967 to end up with this💩? 🚫💉! 🇮🇱👍!)
To: ChicagoConservative27
Kamala is coming across as not very bright, no plan, track record of failure, DEI hire.
4 posted on 09/26/2024 7:45:10 AM PDT by 1Old Pro
To: ChicagoConservative27
5 posted on 09/26/2024 7:45:30 AM PDT by right way right (“May we remain sober over mere men, for God really is our only true hope”)
To: ChicagoConservative27
”Oh, it be.”
6 posted on 09/26/2024 7:47:48 AM PDT by gundog (It was a bright cold day in April, and the clocks were striking thirteen. )
To: rktman
> Even more sad is that there is a race at all. Says a lot about ‘no/low info’ voters. <
And perhaps even more about the Democrat’s awesome propaganda machine, also known as the mainstream media.
7 posted on 09/26/2024 7:48:25 AM PDT by Leaning Right (The steal is real.)
To: 1Old Pro
They may as well run Hunter. She is by far the worst candidate since Mondale.
8 posted on 09/26/2024 7:48:33 AM PDT by bray (It's not racist to be racist against races the DNC hates.)
9 posted on 09/26/2024 7:50:49 AM PDT by TornadoAlley3 ( I'm Proud To Be An Okie From Muskogee)
To: ChicagoConservative27
One might wonder if Kamala is throwing the election, or just so incompetent and under qualified she can’t help it. Maybe the Dems thought Trump would implode and the media would be in the tank? I dunno. But Kamala is so vacuous she’s either a ditz or totally disingenuous that she has no choice but to take no stand and never answer a question head on lest she pull the wool off the hidden agenda.
10 posted on 09/26/2024 7:51:44 AM PDT by monkeyshine (live and let live is dead)
To: kvanbrunt2
Too late. The ballots have already been printed. Kammy is killing her own campaign by non-answer word salads.
11 posted on 09/26/2024 7:55:11 AM PDT by DownInFlames (P)
To: Leaning Right
Yup! Not that it’s actual collusion or anything...🤔
12 posted on 09/26/2024 7:55:47 AM PDT by rktman (Destroy America from within? Check! WTH? Enlisted USN 1967 to end up with this💩? 🚫💉! 🇮🇱👍!)
To: monkeyshine
There was a reason she was the first to drop out last time around in the primaries, with ZERO delegates, and a negative balance in her coffers.
It was not by choice.
13 posted on 09/26/2024 7:56:06 AM PDT by going hot (Happiness is a Momma deuce)
To: rktman
“Says a lot about ‘no/low info’ voters”
I’m giving a lot of lowfo voters a break.
The MSM propaganda machine is an impressive tool. It never stops.
It takes a lot of gumption to break fee.
14 posted on 09/26/2024 7:57:19 AM PDT by MeanWestTexan (Sometimes There Is No Lesser Of Two Evils)
To: kvanbrunt2
Too late. I get my absentee ballot today.
To: ChicagoConservative27
Kamala is not ‘likeable’... The woman grinds on everybody she meets and that’s why she dropped out of the Presidential race that she actually did run for, before the first primary. It’s also the reason Biden picked her for VP... Nobody wants a VP who outshines them and Kamala can’t outshine a rusty nail. A total loser, but the smart Dems know that... And they also knew that this race wasn’t winnable against Trump... They’re getting ready for 2028 and they fully expect Kamala to lose in November and many of them are counting on it.
16 posted on 09/26/2024 8:00:04 AM PDT by jerod (Nazis were essentially Socialist in Hugo Boss uniforms... Get over it!)
To: monkeyshine
The Dems thought Trump would be dead by now, and our nominee would be Nikki Haley or someone just as weak.
17 posted on 09/26/2024 8:00:31 AM PDT by philippa
To: ChicagoConservative27
Trust no polls or models.
The critical factor is whether the Democrats are able to crank up the vote fraud machines in six major cities of "battleground" states like they did in 2020.
Curb those efforts before the ballots are "harvested" and Trump wins by a landslide.
Then Democrats start up the riots and more assassination attempts.
18 posted on 09/26/2024 8:01:04 AM PDT by flamberge (How people vote does not matter. The people who count the votes matter,)
To: ChicagoConservative27
2% points beyond the margin of fraud, but that’s still within the 3% point margin of error.
19 posted on 09/26/2024 8:03:30 AM PDT by fwdude
To: ChicagoConservative27
Breitbart suffers from something like selective memory syndrome with its articles
20 posted on 09/26/2024 8:04:22 AM PDT by thegagline (Sic semper tyrannis! Trump & Vance, 2024! (Formerly) Goldwater & Thomas Sowell in 2024)
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-20, 21-37 next last
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson
