Japan prepares for war with new joint command, evacuation plans and missile unit deployments

TOKYO – The contours of Japan’s war plans are becoming clearer as the Defence Ministry in recent weeks launched its Joint Operations Command, or JJOC, and confirmed its first evacuation plans for Okinawa civilians.

Japan has, in recent years, already been deploying missile units to its south-west to bolster its so-called “counterstrike capabilities”. As the next step, it intends to station surface-to-air missiles on Yonaguni – Japan’s westernmost point, located 2,000km from Tokyo but just 110km from Taiwan.

It also reportedly aims to install long-range anti-ship missiles on Kyushu from around March 2026, which will put North Korea and coastal Chinese cities such as Shanghai within the crosshairs.

Japan has not explicitly confirmed or denied that it will defend self-ruling Taiwan, which is regarded by China as a renegade province to be taken by force if necessary. Tokyo does not recognise the Taipei government under the “one China” principle.

But these defence developments come as Japan is increasingly alarmed by the prospect of an invasion of Taiwan, which it deems an existential threat. Like its security ally the United States, Japan considers China its biggest security menace.

“Japan has to defend not only its nation but also its surrounding area for its national security,” Dr Tosh Minohara, who chairs the Research Institute for Indo-Pacific Affairs think-tank, told The Straits Times.

“In other words, Japan cannot allow a hostile power to take over Taiwan, as this would really damage its national interests,” he said, adding: “Japan cannot be afraid of antagonising China. It must prepare for the worst and hope for the best.”

Such thinking was behind Japan’s formation of JJOC, an integrated command that streamlines operations by unifying the command of the ground, maritime and air branches of the Self-Defence Forces (SDF). 

JJOC’s responsibilities include exercising “counterstrike capabilities”, which allow pacifist Japan to attack enemy bases under threat, as well as overseeing space and cyber security.

It will also coordinate with US Forces Japan, which is being upgraded into what US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth had on March 30 described as a “war-fighting” joint force headquarters.

“Japan’s consistent position is that peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait is important for Japan’s national security and the international community,” Defence Minister Gen Nakatani told a joint news conference alongside Mr Hegseth, who was in Tokyo on his maiden tour of the Indo-Pacific to reaffirm alliances.

They were speaking to reporters after an 85-minute meeting where they discussed how the allies could substantially bolster their joint presence across south-western Japan as a matter of top priority.

Criticising the “aggressive and coercive actions by the communist Chinese”, Mr Hegseth said: “We have a robust alliance agenda that will strengthen our deterrence posture, keep the enemy guessing, create dilemmas for them, and ensure that we achieve peace through strength.”

Japanese Defence Minister Gen Nakatani (left) and visiting US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth at a welcome ceremony in Tokyo on March 30.PHOTO: AFP

Seemingly in response to the visit, China on April 1 kicked off large-scale military exercises involving its army, navy, air and rocket forces that simulated a blockade of Taiwan, whose President Lai Ching-te had described Beijing as a “foreign hostile force” in March.

Japan’s top government spokesman Yoshimasa Hayashi said Tokyo was analysing the show of force, and has conveyed its concerns to Beijing.

“China has been stepping up its military activities around Taiwan in recent years,” Mr Hayashi told a regular news conference. “We will continue to closely monitor related developments and take all necessary measures, including security and surveillance in the sea and airspace around Japan.”

Both sides of the military fence – whether China and Russia, on the one hand, or the US, Japan and other like-minded democracies, on the other – are describing their actions as “deterrence”. In Tokyo, this has translated into accelerated policy discussions on issues such as the deployment of missile units and the conversion of airports and seaports for dual civilian and military use.

While tabletop exercises have been conducted at the prefectural level in Okinawa, Japan’s national government unveiled its first plans on March 27 covering the Sakishima Islands, to evacuate 120,000 civilians during an emergency.

Sakishima refers to Japan’s south-westernmost islands nearest Taiwan, stretching from Miyako to Yonaguni and also including the popular island resorts of Ishigaki and Iriomote.

The plan involves using civilian and military ships and planes to transport an estimated 120,000 civilians – consisting of 110,000 residents and 10,000 tourists – to the seven prefectures on Kyushu island as well as neighbouring Yamaguchi prefecture.

The evacuation would take place over six days, with the plan also spelling out how to secure accommodation and meals for evacuees, who will be dispersed throughout Japan after one month.

Yonaguni Mayor Kenichi Itokazu told foreign media including ST in February, however, that any war evacuation plan would run into questions of timing and convincing those unwilling to flee to leave.

“It’s fine as an ideal, but what happens in real life will encounter very difficult problems in principle and in reality,” he said. “From our point of view, we want to be evacuated early. But the national government will be concerned with the optics of jumping the gun if people are evacuated unnecessarily. There is also the risk that the evacuation order will be too late.”

Dr Minohara also wondered if civilian companies would intentionally put their crew in harm’s way, adding that evacuating in military vehicles – assuming that the SDF could spare its fighting force, ships and planes – would be dangerous, as these will be targeted.

“It’s not very realistic, although granted, the government should have a plan and make it public, so people know it cares,” he said. “But all things considered, Japan can only make sure that war does not break out, and that means deterrence.”

Observers believe Japan must do even more to become a combat-ready outfit, given that the SDF is beset by inherent weaknesses such as a shortage of personnel and ammunition stockpiles.

The Asahi newspaper said in an editorial on March 25 that, while JJOC is a significant step to enable seamless transitions from peacetime to crisis response, “it must not be forgotten that only when field units are properly staffed and supported can they effectively carry out the command directives”.

Hudson Institute non-resident fellow Satoru Nagao told ST that one way to boost Japan’s defence capabilities is to heed calls by US officials and increase military spending even further to 3 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP).

Japan, recognising its ugly history as a wartime aggressor, has long capped its defence spending at 1 per cent of GDP. But the worsening geopolitical environment has led it to pledge 2 per cent defence spending by 2027, which would make it the world’s third-largest military spender after the US and China.

“Japan needs to shoulder more of the security burden in its alliance with the US, buy more ammunition and weapons, and share more advanced technologies,” Dr Nagao said.

• Walter Sim is Japan correspondent at The Straits Times. Based in Tokyo, he writes about political, economic and socio-cultural issues.

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