Kamala Harris could be first Democratic nominee to win surprise voter group since Al Gore in potential blow to Donald Trump

Kamala Harris may become the first Democratic presidential nominee to win a surprise voter group since Al Gore over two decades ago.

In a recent national poll released last week by CNN/SSRS, Harris was found to be leading the former president 50 per cent to 46 per cent among senior citizens across the US - with the average poll placing Harris up by three points over Trump among the elderly.

These statistics represent a major breakthrough for Harris, who has been able to surpass Trump's lead with older voters.  

It shows a stark turnaround from before Joe Biden dropped out of the Presidential race in July and from the final estimates in 2020 which showed Biden with 47 per cent of votes of those aged 65 and over, and Trump with over half at 52 per cent.

But it is not a surprise that Harris is doing considerably better with elderly voters than previous Democrats as Biden performed better with seniors in 2020 than Barack Obama did in 2012.

Although Harris appears to have landed the key group of senior voters, she still seems to be struggling to win over younger voters - according to the poll data.

The polling from four years ago, however, suggested that Biden was doing better than the average Democrat among younger voters as well - a sharp difference from what data is showing now. 

However, the trade-off of younger voters for older voters may not be a negative one for the presidential nominee as there are substantially more senior citizens than adults over 30 in America.

According to recent polling data from a New York Times/Siena College poll from last month, 67 per cent of the 65-plus voters also said they are 'almost certain' to vote.

The over-65 category includes baby boomers, those born between 1946 and 1964, and the Silent Generation, anyone born between 1925 and 1945.

In 2016, Trump beat Hillary Clinton by 19 percentage points among the Silent Generation - but Trump won the same group by 16 percentage points over Biden in 2020.

The senior voting bloc will be crucial to watch in key swing states including Pennsylvania and Arizona, with 19 per cent of Pennsylvania voters aged 65 and over, and 18.5 per cent of Arizona voters within that important voting bloc.

However, it is possible that pre-election polling data is not completely accurate.

Four years ago, there were signals that older voters were shifting to become more Democratic - but Trump would ultimately go on to win them.

Elderly citizens are the primary recipients of federal entitlements, including Social Security and Medicare - but Trump has recently proposed a tax cut to end all taxes on Social Security retirement income.

'SENIORS SHOULD NOT PAY TAX ON SOCIAL SECURITY!' Trump wrote on July 31 on Truth Social, appealing to the tens of millions receiving monthly Social Security benefits ahead of the election.

But experts have criticized Trump's plans from a cost and political perspective, warning they could worsen the Social Security Administration's funding crisis. 

During an interview with CNN last week, Harris said she is 'very proud' of the Biden Administration's work to 'cap the cost of insulin at $35 a month for seniors,' adding, 'Donald Trump said he was going to do a number of things, including allowing Medicare to negotiate drug prices. Never happened. We did it'.

The NYT/Siena College poll also found that Harris and Trump are in a tight race in the key states of Michigan and Wisconsin.

Polling data found that Harris received 48 per cent support among likely voters in Michigan with Trump garnering 47 per cent, while in Wisconsin Harris holds 49 per cent support to Trump's 47 per cent.

The margin for sampling error among likely voters is about plus or minus four percentage points for each poll.

The polls also found that Harris had a lead of nine percentage points over Trump in Nebraska’s Second Congressional District, whose lone electoral vote could be decisive in the Electoral College.